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According to the Citi Research podcast, Citi's Global Macro Strategy Head Dirk Willer and the Head of Quantitative Global Macro and Asset Allocation Team Alex Saunders engaged in an in-depth discussion about recent market dynamics. The two strategists pointed out that most central banks currently maintain a hawkish stance, but the Bank of Japan unexpectedly released dovish signals, which have a key impact on the USDJPY trend.Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a significant rebound recently, which may indicate a new round of changes in digital asset investment strategies in 2026, as institutional investors' interest in the crypto market continues to rise.

Citigroup stated in its latest market strategy program that the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act for formal review did not interrupt Bitcoin's rebound. After the procedural vote on the bill was blocked, Bitcoin remained strong, indicating that funds have begun to reduce their reliance on a single legislative node and are instead focusing on whether regulatory rules can continue to move forward.Citigroup believes that the legislative blockage will limit the CFTC's ability to obtain a more comprehensive regulatory mandate for the crypto market in the short term, but the SEC can still advance some rule-making based on its existing authority. For the market, this means that the compliance process for the crypto industry still has room to continue, with the subsequent focus on the SEC's actual execution pace regarding trading, tokenized assets, and market access rules. Additionally, the macro environment remains a variable for Bitcoin's rebound.The baseline judgment of Citigroup's economic team is that this round of interest rate hikes may be close to "one and done"; however, the quantitative macro team warns that if AI investments continue to support growth, and employment and wage pressures persist, interest rates may face further upward revision risks. Citigroup views Bitcoin's position above the mid-term moving average as a signal of warming risk appetite and notes that its correlation with Nasdaq performance is worth continued tracking.

Citigroup analysts stated that Alibaba is expected to further benefit from the development of its artificial intelligence business. CEO Wu Yongming proposed a goal of achieving 20 gigawatts of AI infrastructure by fiscal year 2033, which could drive external cloud business revenue to $160 billion, higher than Citigroup's forecast of $100 billion for fiscal year 2031. Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 189.

According to Gate market data, Meta Platforms surged in pre-market trading after Citigroup placed Meta on its list of upward catalysts to watch for the next 90 days.

Citigroup analysts pointed out that leading memory chip manufacturers are expected to benefit from the structural changes in the development of artificial intelligence. The agency anticipates that continuous learning will drive a significant increase in memory demand, leading to a supply shortage in the market that will continue until 2031. Continuous learning strengthens models by training on new tasks and knowledge, which will create a sustained demand for model updates and access to historical data, driving the storage usage of products such as HBM, server DDR5, and eSSD.Citigroup expects HBM bit demand to grow by 62% year-on-year to 75.2 billion gigabits in 2027, and by 69% year-on-year to 127 billion gigabits in 2028. Global DRAM demand is expected to grow by 30% and 35% year-on-year in 2027 and 2028, respectively, while supply is expected to grow by only 19% and 22% during the same period, resulting in supply-demand ratios of -8.7% and -9.7%. In terms of NAND, demand is expected to grow by 29% and 33% year-on-year in 2027 and 2028, respectively, exceeding supply growth of 21% and 25%, with supply-demand ratios of -6.1% and -5.5%.Citigroup's preferred storage targets include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, Sandisk, and Kioxia, corresponding to the logic of storage shortages brought about by continuous learning, demand for HBM and server DDR5, DRAM supply shortages, and tightening supply of high-density eSSD and NAND.

As oil prices rise, inflation concerns have emerged, leading to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields. Citigroup stated that for investors who can withstand volatility, the 20-year Treasury bond offers a good risk-reward ratio.Citigroup strategist Jason Williams pointed out that if yields break above 5.3%, bearish options on U.S. Treasuries will strengthen, and policymakers may take action to curb the rise in yields.

DBS and Citibank's New York office completed a cross-border payment in US dollars between Singapore and the United States on September 5 using tokenized deposits through the Swift Digital Ledger. The transaction was executed over the weekend and took only a few minutes, while traditional cross-border payments typically take up to two business days, allowing businesses to avoid losing time due to time zone differences and weekend gaps. This is the second confirmed real-time application of the ledger, following HSBC and Standard Chartered's completion of the first real-time tokenized deposit cross-border transaction in August. Swift announced the ledger's preliminary availability on July 9, with 17 banks ready to pilot it, and DBS is the only bank headquartered in Asia among the 12 core design group members. DBS Group Chief Operating Officer Rachel Chew stated that the Swift Digital Ledger is connecting traditional banking infrastructure with emerging digital networks to drive the practical application of tokenized currency from experimentation. Citibank's Head of South Asia Services Mridula Iyer noted that weekend real-time transactions prove that around-the-clock cross-border payments have become a reality. DBS will launch DBS Token Services in 2024, offering 24/7 programmable instant value transfer services.

According to Cointelegraph, DBS Bank has partnered with Citibank to utilize a blockchain-based ledger from Swift to achieve instant, round-the-clock cross-border dollar payments through tokenized deposits.

Citigroup released a research report stating that it has initiated coverage on Zhongji Xuchuang (03308.HK) H shares with a buy rating, based on a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 times for 2027, with a target price of 1,524 Hong Kong dollars.The bank expects the company's revenue and net profit compound annual growth rates from 2025 to 2028 to reach 129% and 149%, respectively, benefiting from strong demand for AI optical communication, bandwidth upgrades, rapid capacity increases, improved product mix, rising adoption of silicon photonics technology, and operational leverage. The bank believes that the company's comprehensive product portfolio, scalable production capacity, cutting-edge technological advancements and R&D capabilities, flexible and resilient supply chain, as well as solid relationships with leading global cloud service providers and AI clients, are likely to support its leading position in the AI era.

According to Ledger Insights, in March of this year, Citibank issued its first native digital structured note on Euroclear's D-FMI tokenization platform, targeting distribution channels for Citibank's wealth management business.Now, Banco do Brasil, a state-owned holding bank, has announced that it has invested $5 million to purchase subsequent notes in the same Citibank project. This Brazilian bank stated that this transaction is the first of its kind for a financial institution in Latin America. The Brazilian bank made the investment through its proprietary funds department on August 19, using its own funds for the instrument rather than investing on behalf of clients. Citigroup issued the note through its Luxembourg entity, with its London branch acting as the issuance and paying agent. The underlying reference asset of the structured note has not been disclosed.

Citigroup raised the target price for Nvidia (NVDA.O) from $300 to $315.

According to informed sources, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic plans to bring Citigroup into its main underwriting syndicate for its initial public offering. If it goes ahead, Citigroup will join Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase in a core underwriting role. Anthropic may submit its listing application to regulators as early as the end of this month.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser stated that although she remains concerned about how the CLARITY Act handles the rewards mechanism for stablecoins, overall, she hopes the bill will pass and believes it will benefit the financial system. Fraser indicated that Citigroup is still pushing for improvements to the bill.Fraser pointed out that if stablecoin platforms can offer rewards for user deposits, it may lead to a loss of deposits in traditional banks, thereby weakening banks' ability to provide loans and credit services in certain regions of the United States. Currently, the bill stipulates that platforms cannot offer rewards solely for users holding stablecoins, but they can provide rewards for trading and payment activities. This issue remains at the core of the controversy between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector as the bill progresses.

Citigroup expects that as technology companies seek to increase their valuations, more Asian companies will issue stocks in the United States. So far this year, Asian companies have issued approximately $28 billion in American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), setting a new high since 2020.SK Hynix's $26.5 billion listing accounted for the majority, while PayPay's initial offering contributed $1 billion.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect that the overall CPI year-on-year in the U.S. for July will drop from 3.5% in June to 3.4%; the core CPI year-on-year is expected to decrease from 2.6% last month to 2.5%. Economists at Citigroup believe that, as expected, if there is a second consecutive month of soft inflation readings, it would indicate that more than one month of data points to easing inflation pressures, which would essentially rule out the possibility of a rate hike in September. However, economists also expect that core service sector inflation will rise slightly in July, with prices increasing by 0.3% month-on-month.Previously, the data remained flat from May to June. Analysts at Bank of America stated that a rebound in core service sector indicators could keep the September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid noted that if the latter view prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, then the Federal Reserve's rate hike could be delayed until December or later.

According to BitcoinTreasuries, Citibank, with assets of $2.8 trillion, disclosed that it has increased its holdings of 238,538 shares of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy stock MSTR, worth $22.4 million. Currently, Citi holds a total of 961,554 shares, valued at $90.5 million.

According to Jinshi News, Citigroup strategist David Chew stated that the European stock market is the only major market area where risk appetite has significantly improved recently, thanks to new capital inflows and better-than-expected corporate earnings performance.The report pointed out that last week, the investment sentiment for all major European stock indices improved, while relevant indicators in the U.S. market showed a decline in investor confidence. Chew also mentioned that the European market benefited from the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged.

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

According to a report by Reuters, the latest data released by Citi shows that driven by the demand for companies to cut AI spending, the market adoption rate of low-cost open-source models is rapidly increasing. In June of this year, the proportion of open-source model Tokens processed on the AI aggregation platform OpenRouter surged from 34% in January to 65%.Citi specifically pointed out in the report that the cost difference is a core factor driving this trend. The data shows that some Chinese open-source large models are continuously narrowing the performance gap with leading models in the United States, while their charges are as low as 18 cents per million Tokens, whereas the average charge for leading large models in the industry is about 4 dollars, resulting in a cost difference of over 20 times.