cpi

According to the CoinShares market report, the U.S. September CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% for the month, accounting for about half of the overall increase. The core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. During the same period, U.S. September retail sales grew by 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected approximately 0.3%, with August data revised up to 1.3%. However, retail sales excluding gasoline only grew by 0.2%, lower than August's 1%.The report pointed out that inflation remains high, and economic demand also remains resilient, leading the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy in a hawkish manner, causing Bitcoin and the overall digital asset market to decline. Data shows that since the CPI was released, market sentiment has significantly weakened, with global digital asset investment products seeing an outflow of $434 million so far this week. Regarding interest rate expectations, as of October 15, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the October meeting is about 75%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is about 25%. After the CPI release, the futures market clearly shifted to a hawkish stance, with expectations for another rate hike within the year rising significantly.

During the IMF meeting in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh stated that he would not predict the outcomes of the remaining two interest rate meetings this year and was unwilling to disclose potential actions in advance. He said, "This is a new chapter for the Federal Reserve; we no longer do this." Regarding the recent signals from colleagues indicating "no urgency to raise interest rates this month," he neither explicitly supported nor refuted them. Walsh reiterated that the Federal Reserve will achieve price stability and noted that the global economy has largely aligned with central bank expectations since the interest rate hike in September, while describing the recent actions of various central banks as a synchronized tightening of monetary policy in most regions of the world.In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. At that time, most officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. Despite the core CPI rising by 0.33% month-on-month in September, marking a strong increase for the second consecutive month, and the latest producer price data also being robust, Walsh hardly mentioned this week's inflation report and did not significantly attempt to change market expectations for the October meeting. Reports indicated that during his speech, the dollar weakened, and market bets on an interest rate hike in October dropped from about 30% to around 17%.Additionally, Walsh believes that the U.S. is experiencing significant investment growth and holds an optimistic view on economic resilience and the productivity boost brought by AI, but he warned that the development path will be "very bumpy," and the short-term impact of AI on employment remains unclear. DBS Bank macro strategist Wei Liang Chang stated that Walsh reiterated that artificial intelligence will improve productivity in the medium term, which may help ease inflation expectations and alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve's consecutive rate hikes. Saxo Markets Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana noted that Walsh's refusal to commit to another rate hike led to some bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes falling flat, and related comments did not help the dollar following the release of strong inflation data.

Bai Xue, Deputy Director of Research at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that U.S. inflation rebounded significantly in September, with the CPI rising 3.7% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.6% year-on-year. The rebound in inflation has strengthened the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year, with an increased probability of holding steady in October and raising rates by 25 basis points in December.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

The U.S. September CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, raising concerns about inflation. The U.S. bond market initially saw yields surge after the data was released, but then fell back to a three-week low due to safe-haven buying.Tonight, PPI and retail sales data will be released, and market volatility may increase.

Surrounding the unexpected rebound of the U.S. September CPI, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that inflation is spreading from energy to core prices. The U.S. September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% in a single month, contributing to more than half of the overall increase, but prices for housing, healthcare, and airline services also rose, indicating that this rebound cannot be fully explained by energy shocks.The data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" policy logic. The economy has not yet shown significant signs of recession, and the Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons to shift to easing, needing to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. After the CPI announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar quickly rose, with the market raising expectations for subsequent interest rate hikes, leading to increased uncertainty in the interest rate path.For the cryptocurrency market, this change is slightly bearish in the short term. The market first trades on real interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity; high inflation does not automatically favor Bitcoin. After the CPI announcement, Bitcoin weakened and fell below $82,000. In the medium term, it is necessary to distinguish between "energy-driven inflation" and "demand-driven inflation": if energy prices decline and core inflation no longer accelerates, the September data is more likely to be a temporary supply shock; if core service inflation continues to rise, then the high interest rate level may be maintained longer than expected. The direction of Bitcoin depends on whether inflation, employment, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields can jointly confirm a new policy path.

According to Gate market data, spot gold rose by 1% in the Asian session, currently priced at 4146 USD/ounce, essentially recovering all losses since the release of yesterday's U.S. CPI report.

Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the CPI report was higher than his expectations.

The surge in artificial intelligence infrastructure construction has driven up the prices of consumer technology products. The U.S. September CPI shows that the prices of computers and smart home assistants have increased by 9.7% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since 2006.The prices of software and accessories have risen by 28.4% year-on-year, raising concerns in the market about the rising costs of technology products.

Driven by the impact of the Iran war, U.S. CPI for September, not seasonally adjusted, rose to 3.7%, further increasing the cost of living pressure on Americans as the midterm elections in November approach. The not seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year rate increased from 2.4% in August to 2.6%.After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields surged, international gold and silver prices plummeted, and the U.S. dollar index rose, while the market increased bets on three more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2027. The data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics marks the first increase in U.S. inflation rates since May, highlighting that the energy price shocks triggered by the Middle East war continue to affect the world's largest economy.After the outbreak of the war, gasoline and diesel prices soared, then retreated during the summer, but in recent months, as tensions escalated, fuel prices rose again, pushing diesel prices to a historic high. U.S. President Trump has been trying to control the impact of rising energy prices.Polls show that dissatisfied voters may direct their discontent toward the Republican Party in next month's midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

The U.S. September seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, expected 2.50%, previous value 2.40%.The U.S. September seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is 0.3%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%. The U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month is 0.6%, expected 0.60%, previous value 0.40%.

The U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate is 3.7%, expected 3.6%, previous value 3.40%.

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI data tonight at 20:30. The agency expects the overall CPI year-on-year increase to rise from 3.4% in August to 3.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, marking the largest increase in nearly five months, mainly driven by a rebound in energy prices. The core CPI is expected to increase by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.3%.This CPI report is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on October 27-28. CME data shows that the market currently expects a 17% probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October. If the core CPI month-on-month increase reaches 0.3%, it may reinforce expectations for a rate hike this month; if it meets the expectation of 0.2%, the Federal Reserve may pause action and delay the rate hike decision until December. In addition, the U.S. will release PPI data on Thursday, and both CPI and PPI will affect the market's judgment on future inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's policy path.