cpi

According to Jinshi reports, at 23:00 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator—PCE data will be released. Since the CPI data has been officially announced as absent, tonight's data will become the only inflation guidance before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, and the market will scrutinize every detail of the report, wary of market fluctuations.

According to Jin10 data, the U.S. Labor Department stated that the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will not be released, and the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on December 18. (Jin10)

Economists are concerned that key information about inflation and unemployment in the U.S. for October may disappear into a data "black hole," and they are right: White House officials have indicated that some key economic data may be permanently lost.One of President Trump's chief economic advisors, Hassett, stated in an interview on Thursday that due to the longest government shutdown in history, the unemployment rate for October will not be published, marking the first time in 77 years that this data will go unreported.However, Hassett noted that the estimates for job creation in October will still be calculated—this is in direct contrast to White House Press Secretary Levitt's claim a day earlier that the employment report might not be released at all.What remains unclear is whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be published. Levitt had suggested that the CPI report might not be released, but Hassett did not comment on this. (Jin Shi)

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the analysis of CPI data indicates that further interest rate cuts may be needed in the future.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CITIC Securities research report states that the U.S. September CPI was lower than expected, with prices of import-sensitive consumer goods rising moderately, but service inflation has cooled again, keeping the overall inflation situation stable. If the U.S. federal government shutdown continues, the Bureau of Labor Statistics may miss the sampling window for October price data. CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two more times this year, each by 25 basis points.

According to ChainCatcher news, Jin10 reported that the CICC research report stated that the U.S. September CPI seasonally adjusted increased by 0.3% month-on-month and rose to 3% year-on-year. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 3% year-on-year, which is below market expectations. The report pointed out that rent and used car prices have a significant drag, reflecting weakened demand. Overall, the inflation data is relatively mild, supporting the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points in both October and December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities research report states that the U.S. September CPI unexpectedly slowed down, mainly influenced by the unexpected slowdown in the rent component. In the context of the ongoing government shutdown and a cooling job market, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is highly likely, and a rate cut in December is also the baseline scenario. Huatai Securities maintains its judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut rates once in both October and December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.54%, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.86%. Intel (INTC.O) opened up 6.8%, as the overnight financial report showed the company turned a profit in the third quarter, revenue returned to growth, and an optimistic revenue guidance was released; Procter & Gamble (PG.N) rose by 3.5%, as the company's first fiscal quarter performance exceeded expectations.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate is 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the same as the previous value of 3.1%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate is 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%, with the previous value also at 0.3%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, economists predict that the U.S. CPI in September may rise by 3.1% year-on-year, which would be the highest level since it reached 3.3% in May 2024. Gregory Daco, chief economist at Pantheon-EY, stated that the upcoming U.S. September CPI data will confirm that inflation is accelerating again, with significant price momentum expected in both goods and services sectors.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank anticipates the U.S. CPI, believing that the risks are tilted towards stronger inflation, but the threshold for the Federal Reserve to skip the rate cut plan in October is very high.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ilya Spivak, the global macro head of the financial analysis platform tastylive, expects that the U.S. September CPI report will show the overall CPI year-on-year reaching a 16-month high of 3.1%; the core CPI year-on-year will remain at 3.1%, matching the five-month high set in July. He stated that the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are continuing to permeate price levels, with core goods inflation reaching a two-year high in August.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, John Luke Tyner, head of the fixed income department at Aptus Capital Advisors, pointed out in a report that 72% of the components in the U.S. CPI are growing faster than the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, accompanied by the risk of delayed tariff impacts. This trend is expected to persist until 2028, in which case the Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, investors are focused on the U.S. CPI for September, which will be released on Friday. The overall CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% compared to the previous month, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%. Despite the government shutdown entering its fourth week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release the inflation report to assist the Social Security Administration in determining the annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026. Barclays Private Bank's Chief Market Strategist Julien Lafargue stated that the CPI data needs to be significantly higher than expected to change the market's view on the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, the U.S. September CPI data will be released later on Friday. Before this, Asian currencies against the dollar are consolidating in the morning session. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson stated that the currency market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and another 25 basis points in December, with probabilities of 99% and 93% respectively. If the CPI data comes in higher than expected, it may challenge these expectations and drive the dollar higher across the board.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, although the U.S. September CPI report to be released today may show persistent inflation, investors may overlook this sign as the money market is preparing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week. Emily, founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners, stated that given the government shutdown, Friday's CPI report is important, but it is not expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's decision, with a possible rate cut in October and December.

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by Jinshi, Dean Baker, chief economist at the UK research institution CEPR, stated that the US September CPI data may show a growth rate similar to that of August, with both overall and core CPI annual rates expected to be close to 3%, above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The direction of changes in inflation levels may raise concerns for the Federal Reserve, especially as the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully passed on to consumers.