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cxmt

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first_img Analysis: CXMT's production capacity has peaked, and DRAM prices continue to rise sharply

Analysis indicates that China's major DRAM manufacturer CXMT's monthly wafer output has reached a peak of approximately 240,000 pieces by the end of 2025, and is expected to remain flat in 2026. Due to the tightening of U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, especially EUV lithography machines, its capacity for expansion is limited, and substantial expansion will not occur until at least 2027, depending on the progress of the domestic equipment supply chain. According to Goldman Sachs data, CXMT's coverage of domestic DRAM demand is only about 41% in 2026 and about 50% in 2028, reflecting a structural bottleneck for many years.TrendForce data shows that traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to surge by 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another increase of 58%-63% in the second quarter. Jefferies predicts that prices will continue to rise by 40%-50% and 30%-40% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The price increase for server DRAM is even steeper, with Samsung and SK Hynix proposing price hikes of 60%-70% to clients like Microsoft and Google in the first quarter. S&P Global expects Samsung's traditional DRAM revenue per bit to rise by 116% year-on-year to $0.79 in 2026, while Micron's ASP will increase by 54% to $1.06; Bernstein predicts that SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in the fourth quarter of 2026.Multiple forecasts suggest that effective supply relief may not occur until the end of 2027 or even 2028.

Changxin's long position funding fee is expected to yield an annualized return of 2130%, with whales able to net a profit of 740,000 USD in a single day

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the current hourly funding rate for Changxin has dropped to -0.2430%. A negative rate means that shorts pay longs; based on the current rate, the simple annualized return is approximately 2129%.Calculating with a position of $10,000, shorts need to pay about $24.3 per hour, while longs receive an equivalent income; if the rate is maintained for 24 hours, the corresponding funding fee is about $583.3.The largest long position starting with 0x9a8 is the main beneficiary of this round of negative rates. Records show that since the morning of July 15, it has completed 183 funding fee settlements for CXMT, with a cumulative net income of about $991,400, achieving a return rate of about 45.9% on the initial capital.This whale currently holds a leveraged long position of 1,633,200 CXMT at 5 times, with a position value of about $12,742,000 and an average entry price of $6.6156. CXMT is currently priced at $7.80, with an unrealized profit of about $1,938,000 (89.7%), and the liquidation price is only $0.507.Based on the current position and a static rate of -0.2430%, this whale can earn about $31,000 in funding fees in the next hour; if maintained for 24 hours, this corresponds to about $743,000.This whale currently still has 7 buy orders not labeled as "only reducing positions" between $6.01 and $6.41, planning to continue buying 98,000 CXMT, with a nominal amount of about $609,000, and has not chosen to cash out the existing long position.
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