cyc

Chi Lo, a strategist at Societe Generale, stated that although the market expects two more rate hikes, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve's rate hike in September will mark the beginning of a new tightening cycle similar to that of 2022 to 2023. Instead, this may signal the start of preventive rate hikes aimed at bringing inflation back to target levels by reversing last year's three rate cuts.He noted that further rate hikes will not alleviate external shocks such as war and energy price inflation, but they will ease financial market concerns about the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation credibility. The Federal Reserve cannot continue to ignore recurring shocks or those that fail to dissipate as expected. By slowing down activity in other areas of the economy to curb inflationary pressures, further rate hikes may also carry the risk of pushing the economy into stagflation.

Cryptocurrency trader Ansem stated that he is quite optimistic about the real recovery of NFTs in this cycle, and art-related NFTs may see a price increase again.Ansem mentioned that what is more noteworthy is the innovation surrounding the forms of NFTs, including AI agents, ownership mechanisms, new issuance methods, and different models of NFTs combined with on-chain products. He believes that as the broader rotation of on-chain assets is still in its early stages, there may be more new applications and design explorations in the NFT field in the future.

Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, stated that artificial intelligence and the cryptocurrency industry are gradually merging, with tokenization and AI agents likely becoming the two main driving forces of the next cryptocurrency market cycle.Tom Lee mentioned that BlackRock expects more assets to be tokenized, and financial settlement infrastructure is increasingly being built on cryptocurrency networks. Some fintech companies, such as Revolut, have already begun to build related businesses based on Ethereum. He also stated that AI is driving the formation of the digital economy, while cryptocurrencies provide the digital currency and blockchain infrastructure needed to support this economic system.

According to the token unlocking data from the crypto asset data platform RootData, Cycle Network (CYC) will unlock approximately 14.17 million tokens at 0:00 Beijing time on October 4, with a value of about 1.13 million USD.

According to ai_9684xtpa monitoring, the address 58bro.eth (0xc24...FE8d2) has longed 18.74 million USD worth of ETH in the last 24 hours. It withdrew 3,000 ETH from Binance and deposited it into Aave to lend 9 million USDT, then continued to increase its position, accumulating a total long position of 7,000 ETH at an average price of approximately 2,677.59 USD.

Glassnode stated that over time, it seems increasingly unlikely that a decline of the same depth as in past cycles will occur again in the later stages of this market. The "four-year cycle" pattern that the market previously relied on has not been reflected in this bear market.Data shows that the drawdowns in the past three cycles exceeded twice that of this cycle, and there are still several weeks until the cycle low point; in contrast, this time BTC has only fallen about 30% from its historical high, and the price is currently rising.

PlanB posted on platform X that BTC is currently around $87,000, having surpassed all major realized prices, with the overall realized price at about $53,000, the 155-day realized price at about $72,000, and the 2-year realized price at about $86,000.He believes that the possibility of BTC dropping below $53,000 in this cycle is low, and the view that "BTC will retest the overall realized price like in previous bear markets" has lost its last relatively clear condition for establishment. He also stated that the trend from 2025 to 2026 aligns with the characteristics of historically smoother bull and bear cycles, expecting BTC to reach new highs during this halving cycle (2024-2028).

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi posted on the X platform, stating that he has repeatedly mentioned that July and August are the last times to buy the dip. The core idea is that the third wave of decline since 1011 is the final drop, and no one can determine where it will fall, influenced by factors like black swan events, similar to how the FTX incident caused BTC to drop excessively.However, the cycle time and volatility patterns will not be wrong; when the time comes, it is time to buy the dip. One should never expect to buy at the lowest price. As for why sometimes the statements are vague, after all, no one can be 100% accurate. Just like if you get it right ten times, no one remembers, but if you get it wrong once, it will always be on the chain. Also, outrageous rumors can ignite more enthusiasm than facts.

According to the Nikkei, the release cycle of new AI models in China and the United States has averaged 44 days since April 2026, about one-third of the previous duration. The report compiled data from five American companies, including Anthropic and OpenAI, and four Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group and Moon's Dark Side, showing that the average interval from January 2023 to March 2026 was 125 days, which shortened to 44 days from April to September 2026.Entering September, OpenAI and Anthropic successively released their latest models. Meta has been upgrading Muse Spark monthly since July, and Google launched an updated version of Gemini on September 2 after three weeks. Grok released new models for three consecutive months until August. In China, DeepSeek has been updating monthly since July, and after August, Alibaba and Z.AI, which launched the GLM series, also successively released new models.On September 17, Anthropic announced that as of August, 26% of its development work was dominated by AI, with over 90% involving AI participation, whereas the proportion of AI dominance was nearly zero in February of this year. For OpenAI, in August, AI agents operated 3.1 times longer than human researchers, with average daily usage of about $600 for ordinary researchers, and the top 10% exceeding $7,000; the amount of code written through programming by the company in August reached seven times the average level of 2025.

Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, stated that Bitcoin has started to rise after consolidating around the support level of approximately $60,000 for nearly a year, a duration comparable to a typical Bitcoin winter, leading him to conclude that a new four-year cycle bull market may have begun.Timmer mentioned that the Z-score of BTC/gold has changed from -100% to a positive value, a signal that historically confirms a bottom. He also pointed out that we are currently in a long-term new pattern with higher capital costs, and the government may respond with financial repression.

Blockchain Capital investor Jonah Burian stated: Cryptocurrency accelerates market cycles, early companies gain liquidity through tokens, and market behavior is assumed to be public, with lessons applicable to AI investment. Huge results are contagious and trigger FOMO; after Bitcoin became a trillion-dollar asset, Ethereum and Solana proved that more significant outcomes are possible, leading to the rise of alt-L1 trading, with VCs treating new L1s as lottery funding. Similarly, OpenAI and Anthropic are moving towards the trillion-dollar scale, with each new lab being priced as a lottery.L1s were financed at billion-dollar valuations based on white papers and founding teams, while new labs are raising billions based on research papers and teams poached from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind. After hot money floods in, rapid capital speculators always emerge; cryptocurrency has experienced operations like tokens as products, high FDV with low circulation, and a similar dynamic is unfolding in AI, but AI prices are formed in opaque semi-liquid secondary markets, unlike publicly traded cryptocurrencies.The blockchain space has shifted from scarcity to abundance, becoming a commodity, with applications capturing most of the value. In AI, models may become commoditized, with value shifting upstream and downstream, while applications and hardware layers gain profits, and the model layer gets squeezed. During the frenzy phase, financial capital excessively funds infrastructure, and new labs bet that it is only reasonable to assume large-scale R&D returns, with the history of cryptocurrency and alt-L1s warranting skepticism unless AGI arrives.

Analyst Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is about to enter a phase of 365 days without reaching a new all-time high (ATH). In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically set a new high shortly after the halving, but this pattern seems to be changing. Meanwhile, the time intervals from each cycle peak to the next all-time high are also shortening: from 2014 to 2017 it was 1180 days, from 2017 to 2020 it was 1094 days, and from 2021 to 2024 it has shortened to 849 days. Darkfost believes that if this trend continues, this round of Bitcoin may reach a new historical high more quickly. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around April 2028.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated that the cryptocurrency market will enter an extremely bullish phase in the next 12 months. He believes that the market experienced over $19 billion in leveraged position liquidations on October 10 last year due to the U.S. threatening to impose a 100% tariff on China, and a large amount of borrowed funds has been cleared, suggesting that the bottom of the cryptocurrency market's four-year cycle may appear next month.Tom Lee is also optimistic about the long-term opportunities brought by asset tokenization. He estimates that if $100 trillion in assets migrate on-chain in the future and generate 1% in revenue, it could produce about $1.1 trillion in annual revenue, corresponding to a market opportunity of about $20 trillion based on traditional business valuations.However, BitMine currently holds 5.93 million ETH, with related positions showing a paper loss of about $5 billion. Fundstrat has continuously advised clients to allocate 2% of their portfolios to cryptocurrency assets over the past decade; Tom Lee stated that in the accounts of clients who adopted this advice, cryptocurrency assets currently account for over 85% of their portfolios.

CoinDesk cites the opinion of Tom Lee, co-founder and chief investment officer of Fundstrat Global Advisors, stating that the cryptocurrency market will be "very bullish" in the next 12 months.Tom Lee indicated that the excess leverage was cleared out last October, and the four-year cycle will bottom out next month.

The decentralized lending protocol Pencil Finance has announced the completion of a $1 million student loan portfolio on-chain, including fundraising, lending, repayment records, and fund returns, constituting a complete financing and repayment cycle. Animoca Brands, Open Campus, and NewCampus provided funding for this portfolio in July 2025.The education financing company ErudiFi issued most of the funds through Southeast Asian student loans and tuition financing, covering markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines. The portfolio operates for 12 months, supporting over 6,600 students across 118 schools and universities, of which approximately 1,050 students received funding directly attributable to Pencil Finance. Investors are divided into priority and subordinate shares, with the former providing fixed returns and enjoying repayment priority, while the latter has variable returns and bears the first loss from defaults. Pencil Finance claims this is the first fully on-chain student loan cycle, but has not disclosed interest rates, investor yields, default situations, or blockchain transaction records.

Student Loan RWA Agreement Pencil Finance announced the completion of its first fully on-chain student loan cycle, deploying $1 million in funding as a lender, with borrowers having repaid both principal and interest to the funders of the asset package. This loan package was funded in July 2025 by Animoca Brands, Open Campus, and New Campus, and is structurally divided into fixed-income senior shares and floating-income junior shares that bear the risk of priority losses.This $1 million on-chain loan cycle provides financing for approximately 6,600 students across 118 schools and universities in Southeast Asia, with about 1,050 students receiving direct funding. Pencil Finance stated that these loans target student groups underserved by traditional financial institutions, with 50% of borrowing students being female and 93% coming from low-income families, claiming this is the first fully on-chain loan cycle to transparently record student loan financing on the blockchain.In addition, tokenized RWA is increasingly being used to issue loans or as collateral for loans. In July of this year, the Brazilian stock exchange B3 issued a loan of 100,000 Brazilian Reais (approximately $19,600) secured by 10 tokenized cows, each cow possessing a unique digital token linked to a crypto digital identity.

Google's Senior Director of Supply Chain Infrastructure, Nikhil Cherian, revealed that to overcome memory bottlenecks, Google is developing software and hardware solutions and dismantling retired servers to recycle DDR4 components to establish an internal recycling supply chain. Google has designed special hardware adapters to connect the previous generation DDR4 to the new generation of AI servers while importing retired servers to remove their DDR4 modules for recycling.Cherian stated that the AI industry has rapidly shifted from being compute-constrained to memory-constrained, with high-performance memory accounting for about 75% of the bill of materials cost for a given AI server. A Goldman Sachs report indicated that memory prices will continue to rise in the third quarter, with personal computer DRAM prices expected to increase by 18% to 23% and server DRAM prices expected to rise by 13% to 18%. Trendforce data shows that in August, the spot market prices for DDR4 8GB and DDR5 8GB rose to $142 and $133, respectively.The two TPU ASICs launched by Google this year have been optimized for memory design, claiming to reduce memory demand to one-sixth of the original. The TPU8i chip features a dedicated layered memory design that relies on a high-speed DDR5 memory architecture to perform host-level tasks, with each chip equipped with 288GB of HBM3e high-bandwidth memory.

Analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has been locked in a 4-year cycle gravitational field, dominated by the supply shock brought about by halving. However, the annual new supply has dropped to 0.8% (soon to drop to 0.4%), and internal forces are gradually weakening.Meanwhile, traditional financial markets are in a 6-8 year short-term debt cycle, and Bitcoin may be transitioning to a 6-8 year cycle.