direction

Analyst Jukan published a discussion on the storage industry's cycle, believing that computing power and storage will tighten or loosen in sync, and that there will not be a situation where computing power is continuously in short supply while storage alone turns to surplus. He also stated that the logic of shorting storage while going long on hard drives does not hold, as hard drives are tied to the storage cycle; if this cycle declines, hard drives will struggle to remain secure on their own.Jukan noted that the market lacks a clear judgment on trends after 2027. Historically, prices often peak one to two quarters before supply increases, followed by an expansion in shipments and a contraction in profit pools. He believes that this cycle is different from those of personal computers, smartphones, and general-purpose servers, as the products used are not standardized, and the triggering factors are also different. Some investors who still view storage through the lens of past experiences of profits during upswings and losses during downswings dominate pricing, leading to a low valuation of storage. He stated that a sharp collapse similar to previous ones is unlikely to reoccur, but a gradual decline is possible; even if Samsung and SK Hynix's profit margins are halved from current levels, the price-to-earnings ratio may still be in the teens, about half of the valuation of hard drive companies.He also believes that when storage prices decline, other demands will absorb supply at various price levels, with local AI-driven personal AI demand expected to emerge. If the storage prices pushed up by hyperscale cloud providers cannot be controlled, local AI will struggle to spread. Referring to the transition from mainframes to personal computers and from cloud to smartphones, he anticipates that this AI cycle will shift from cutting-edge laboratories to local open-source AI, with the latter absorbing storage demand. He simultaneously stated that storage prices will not remain high for over ten years; prices will eventually decline, but new consumer demands driven by local AI and open-source initiatives may provide bottom support.

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson stated in an interview video published by Bitcoin Magazine that the future of currency is closely linked to the future of Western civilization.He pointed out that the U.S. is burdened with about $40 trillion in debt, and since 2020, the dollar has lost about 30% of its purchasing power. The rising risk of default and inflation are driving up interest rates, and those without physical assets will lose purchasing power. Davidson is the founder of the Sound Money Caucus.In the interview, Davidson also discussed the end of the debate vote on the Clarity Act and its Section 305's threat to self-custody, as well as whether the bill will be reintroduced after the midterm elections, and topics such as open-source developer protection and the Trump family ethics clause. He also mentioned the American Reserve Modernization Act and the issue of the U.S. government holding Bitcoin, and responded to whether Bitcoin has become a partisan issue.Additionally, Davidson expressed his views on central bank digital currencies, financial surveillance, and reforms to the Bank Secrecy Act, referring to stablecoins as "Hydra-like" central bank digital currencies, and discussed the GENIUS Act. He urged Bitcoin supporters to defend freedom in the midterm elections and warned that the direction of the monetary system's development will determine the trajectory of Western civilization.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that officials stated future data will determine the direction of interest rates.

According to Bitcoin.com, the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, and the results may influence the direction of the country's cryptocurrency policies, which have the highest global adoption rate. Current President Lula will face off against former President's son Flavio Bolsonaro.If current President Lula is re-elected, it is expected that he will strengthen regulatory and compliance requirements, as the central bank has intensified oversight of exchanges and may push for taxation on stablecoin transactions (which had been postponed due to the election). If former President's son Flavio Bolsonaro wins, his stance on cryptocurrency is unclear, with no record indicating that he has ever mentioned cryptocurrencies. However, he has previously defended individuals associated with the "Bitcoin Pharaoh" pyramid scheme.

Illia Polosukhin, co-founder of NEAR, stated that recently the activity of developers within the ecosystem has increased and the development threshold has further lowered, focusing on what kind of applications to build and how to establish distribution channels.In this regard, he proposed a series of potential construction directions, covering AI electronic pets that combine NEAR AI on-chain verifiable reasoning with non-fungible tokens (NFTs), a universal checkout component that supports full-chain intent payments, a decentralized encyclopedia that combines prediction markets with AI-generated content, a privacy off-chain trading (OTC) market based on NEAR Intents and management of anti-liquidation lending and perpetual contracts, a cross-chain activity registration custody tool in the form of a staking deposit, privacy code review agents, enterprise equity structure management tools, Delta neutral strategy management, privacy tracking single transactions based on view keys, end-to-end encrypted medical auxiliary diagnostic systems, privacy voice transcription desktop applications, and AI benchmarking based on private test sets.Regarding product distribution, he suggested combining NEARLegion with community channels like X, achieving multi-chain wallet compatibility through Aurora Intent Connect to lower cross-chain thresholds, and actively expanding across communities and platforms like Product Hunt.

The founder of the Liebit mining pool, Jiang Zhuoer, showcased his position combination of "making money even in the wrong direction." He previously stated that he sold 100% BTC positions at $77,226. Using the price reference of 8:29:47, his full BTC short position lost 1.95% from $77,226 to $78,730.74, the full ETH spot gained 5.74% from $2,467.61 to $2,609.31, and the 5% position in BNC spot gained 0.51% from $4.81 to $5.305, with a total profit of approximately 4.3%.

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting and maintain this until the end of 2027, despite rising market expectations for a rate hike.Surveys show that only 13 economists anticipate a rate increase this month, while the market believes there is a 70% chance of a rate hike next week. Yelena Shulyatyeva warned that rising inflation could change the current situation.

On September 10, Kim Sang-hoon, the head of the packaging division at Samsung Electro-Mechanics, delivered a speech at the KPCA Show International Seminar INSIGHT 2026 held at the Incheon Songdo Conference Center, proposing a multilayer core (MLC) technology direction to address the large-scale and high-multilayer challenges of AI semiconductor packaging substrates.Kim Sang-hoon stated that in the past, the single-layer core (SLC) method, which increased the thickness of a single CCL, led to increased difficulty in processing internal vias and circuits as the core thickened, and the size of the vias became limited. The MLC approach shifts to a combination of CCL and PPG multilayers, or even a mixed structure of two CCLs, which can simultaneously enhance rigidity and wiring freedom, while also allowing for ground or signal wiring to be arranged in the PPG layer. A bonding layer added between the two CCLs can provide more stable support for the substrate, but the process is more complex.Currently, the commonly used bump pitch in mass production is above 90μm, with around 85μm being the turning point for printed fine solder ball processes. The difficulty significantly increases around 80μm, and the 55-45μm range may shift towards metal bumps. Glass cores are another option, offering higher rigidity and lower thermal expansion coefficients, which help reduce warping in large packages, but issues related to fragility and micro-hole plating technology need to be addressed. The substrate must meet signal integrity, power integrity, and mechanical integrity requirements simultaneously, with high-performance packaging substrate layers expected to evolve from about 20 layers at the 90mm level to 120mm and even more than 40 layers.

Ethlabs stated that it has reviewed over 60 EIPs proposed for the Ethereum Hegotá upgrade and updated its priority recommendations, focusing on four areas: censorship resistance, transaction confirmation speed, native account abstraction, and performance optimization.Specifically, Ethlabs supports FOCIL to enhance Ethereum's censorship resistance and neutrality; it recommends shortening time slots for the first time in the Hegotá upgrade through Quick Slots and creating conditions for further reductions in the future; it supports achieving native account abstraction through Frame Transactions, introducing passkey wallets, transaction delegation, using tokens to pay Gas, batch transactions, as well as better privacy and quantum security support. Additionally, Ethlabs emphasizes that client and protocol design should continuously prioritize performance, using optimization results to increase L1 capacity, shorten time slots, and reduce node operation requirements.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that, reflecting on his observations since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015, the choice of direction is crucial aside from personal efforts. He believes that the groups that can achieve long-term results more easily in the cryptocurrency industry mainly include three categories.One category is the holders of BTC / ETH / BNB, including mining, holding coins, and mining pools, which is a time compound interest return. Another category is those involved in trading infrastructure, including quantitative arbitrage, trading platforms, and stablecoins. The last category is projects and market makers, which belong to asset issuance and asset control.Yi Lihua also mentioned that investors and contract players overall experience more failures than successes; the model is similar to that of hunters, where one must go out to hunt every day to have something to eat, with low compound returns amidst high risks.

According to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to over $77,000 last week, liquidating approximately $3 billion in leveraged short positions, major crypto market makers such as Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute quietly established short positions in perpetual contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars on Hyperliquid.Lookonchain data shows that the three institutions collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million); meanwhile, Abraxas Capital withdrew 73,872 ETH (approximately $173 million) from Binance in the past four days.This strategy is known as cash arbitrage or basis trading: traders hold spot positions while shorting an equivalent amount of assets through perpetual contracts to hedge against price volatility risks, primarily earning the funding rates paid by longs to shorts. In previous months, funding rates were long suppressed or even turned negative, but this month's rebound has quickly turned funding rates positive, reopening the arbitrage window. Aegis data shows that the 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on August 24 reached an annualized 6.7%, with a 7-day average of 8.7%; 21shares capital markets noted that basis trading for mainstream assets like Solana is also becoming lucrative.This trading has extended to regulated markets: Glassnode data shows that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen from about 87,000 BTC to 122,000 BTC.

CZ stated at the offline "Binance Life" book club meeting in Hong Kong that Hong Kong, as a financial center, has unique advantages in the flow of fintech talent, mainland talent, and institutional connections. Although it is not outstanding in infrastructure such as electricity and data centers, its competitiveness in the Web3 financial sector is evident. He believes that the current AI hype will not hinder the long-term development of Web3, and individuals should choose directions that interest them, that they are capable of, and that hold value; Hong Kong and Web3 are indeed a strong combination. Besides Hong Kong, he is also optimistic about Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the UAE, as well as the United States after its policy shift to support the crypto industry.CZ mentioned that the development speed of RWA has significantly exceeded his previous expectations, especially in terms of securities on-chain. Traditional stocks are limited by account opening thresholds, trading hours, and geographical restrictions. Once assets are on-chain, they can be directly accessible to global investors, significantly enhancing accessibility and liquidity, making them more attractive to countries and companies with smaller securities market sizes. RWA will be an important development direction moving forward, and stablecoins are essentially a type of RWA that brings fiat currency onto the chain. Currently, the market is mainly dominated by USD stablecoins, and in the future, more countries may promote their national currencies to be on-chain to expand their global circulation.He also stated that DEX has gradually evolved over the past eight years from products like Uniswap and PancakeSwap to Hyperliquid, with both infrastructure and user awareness significantly maturing. According to his current understanding, the regulatory pressure from the U.S. on decentralized products has eased compared to the past, and clearer separation models are beginning to appear between international platforms and those targeting U.S. users, with some international platforms not necessarily requiring comprehensive KYC. If the policy environment continues to relax, the development speed of DEX and the entire crypto industry may significantly accelerate in the coming years.

Chairman of BitMine, Tom Lee, stated on CNBC that next week could be a turning point for the stock market. Currently, AI stock trading has stagnated, mainly suppressed by concerns over data centers and political opposition in the United States.The key issue is whether confidence in AI can return after the stagnation. If NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang can demonstrate that the demand for AI computing power remains strong at the upcoming event, it will help to reinject confidence into the market and drive the AI sector out of its consolidation.Tom Lee also emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve continues to accumulate, and the upcoming public appearances of a series of Federal Reserve officials will become another significant market signal. The S&P 500 has recently hovered around 7678 points, with a cumulative decline of about 1.4% this week, as the market grapples with dual concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and the path of monetary policy.Next week's positioning is a key window to observe the market's directional choice. Whether the signals of AI demand can resonate with expectations of Federal Reserve policy will determine the short-term direction of risk assets.

ChianCatcher news, Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder tweeted that Arbitrum has been ahead of its time in several aspects. The team strongly advocated for interactive proof design (which was controversial at the time and has now become the standard for optimistic Rollups); chose to establish a business when the business model was still highly controversial; focused on DeFi when most people had not yet understood perpetual contracts and many had given up on DeFi; and launched a dedicated blockchain when the industry generally believed that more chains were unnecessary.Facing backlash each time, but now the industry is aligning with the direction they set from day one: building robust and high-performance financial infrastructure. Goldfeder is proud of the Offchain team for delivering world-class products at an incredibly fast pace and stated that they will continue to deliver, even if most people currently do not understand its necessity; the industry will soon understand.

Vitalik Buterin stated that he has compared the 2023 Ethereum roadmap with the current Strawmap, and while there is still a high degree of overlap in the overall direction, some priorities and technical paths have been clearly adjusted. This includes elevating the priority of quantum security, downplaying VDF and certain EVM improvements, and replacing old designs with unified binary trees, PBT, new state types, and other solutions.He pointed out that the most significant change in the current Strawmap is the emergence of several new topics not included in the 2023 roadmap, reflecting a shift in the focus of Ethereum's development. These new focal points include: stronger native privacy support, aggressive scaling in a post-quantum context, streamlined specifications for formal verification, Blob and Gas futures, native Rollup, and a more open design space around the future form of EVM.Vitalik also emphasized that Ethereum's scaling approach is shifting from "broadly scaling all activities" to "designing more easily scalable dedicated mechanisms for specific high-load scenarios," and views STARK proofs and AI-accelerated formal verification as important foundations for the protocol's future. Overall, this update indicates that the Ethereum roadmap is evolving towards quantum security, privacy-first, censorship resistance, high performance, and more simplified protocol design.

According to the expected plan compiled by the Korea Digital Convergence Industry Association, the secondary regulations for Security Token Offerings (STO) in South Korea may include: allowing "pooling" issuance of similar types of underlying assets, setting over-the-counter trading limits for general investors, clarifying the licensing conditions and business scope for non-standard securities over-the-counter exchanges, and developing a phased roadmap for the tokenization of standard securities. In addition, the technical and financial requirements for issuer account management institutions are also expected to be included in the regulations.This expected plan is based on publicly available policy directions and industry discussions and is not an official version. Specific standards still need to be determined through legislative announcements, regulatory reviews, and other procedures. Previously, the STO market was primarily focused on single assets; if pooling is allowed, it could promote the issuance of multi-asset composite products such as music copyrights and real estate. The over-the-counter trading limits for general investors are expected to be higher than existing sandbox cases, but the final limits still need to balance investor protection and market liquidity. The status of non-standard securities over-the-counter trading platforms and existing operators, as well as the future path for the tokenization of standard securities (stocks, bonds), will be key focuses moving forward. The industry warns that after the regulations are implemented, the preparation time for related companies' systems and internal controls may be quite urgent.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that this week's market focus has shifted from tech stock earnings reports back to U.S. employment data and Fed policy expectations.The key to this non-farm report is not just the number of new jobs added, but whether the unemployment rate, average hourly wage, and previous values' revisions collectively indicate a "orderly cooling" or "significant slowdown" in the labor market.Lewis Huang stated that if non-farm employment and wage data are both stronger than expected, the market will lower short-term rate cut bets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are expected to strengthen, while gold and high-valuation tech stocks will face pressure; conversely, if employment, wages, and previous values' revisions all weaken, the market will raise expectations for Fed easing, and gold and non-U.S. currencies may receive support.He advised CFD traders to avoid chasing orders in the first minute after data is released, and to focus on observing whether the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and gold form a synchronized confirmation, and to wait for a pullback opportunity after a key price level breakout. The current trading focus is not simply betting on the data's highs and lows, but rather judging how the non-farm report will change the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path.

On-chain analyst Murphy pointed out that Bitcoin has accumulated up to 890,000 BTC at the single price level of $63,000, showing an extreme distribution. Excluding the 550,000 BTC locked by Coinbase in the $83,000 to $84,000 range, the accumulation at this price level may have exceeded 1 million BTC, accounting for about 5% of the total circulation. Historically, exceeding this scale has generally triggered significant volatility.Currently, the combined total of the two price levels, $62,000 and $63,000, accounts for about 8% of the circulation, and the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the spot price has simultaneously risen to 13%. Although it has not yet reached the historical high probability trigger line of 15%, it has surpassed the level that caused severe volatility in May, officially entering the alert zone.Analysts emphasize that a high concentration of chips means a sharp increase in price sensitivity. When overly concentrated chips are gathered in a narrow range, even a slight change in price may exacerbate the turnover of sensitive chips, leading to violent redistribution either upwards or downwards.The massive short-term chips accumulated near $63,000 are forming a potential trigger for volatility, and any external event could become the detonator. The market may have entered a tense state where a significant directional choice could occur at any moment.