divergence

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated that the Bitcoin market may not have reached its true bottom yet, and "the real bottom may not appear until October 2026." He previously predicted that Bitcoin could drop to the $60,000 range in the third quarter of 2026.Brandt believes that prices may oscillate upward in the short term, but could still fall back to the $50,000 high range within the year. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes pointed out that Ethereum prices may continue to consolidate in the current range until dollar liquidity improves. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at about $1,941, with a decline of over 40% in the past 30 days. However, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, believes that Ethereum is currently in an attractive accumulation zone and emphasized that stablecoin trading volume has increased by about 200% over the past 18 months.In terms of market predictions, Polymarket data shows that there is a 41% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 by the end of February, while the probability of returning to $75,000 is 29%. Within 2026, the probability of Bitcoin returning to $120,000 is 23%, and the probability of breaking $150,000 is only 10%. For Ethereum, the market expects a 76% probability of it reaching $1,500 in 2026, and a 23% probability of dropping to $1,600.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that although Bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the beginning of the year, crypto-related stocks overall have still outperformed BTC. However, within the sector, individual stock returns have shown significant divergence.Specifically, brokerage and trading platforms (such as Robinhood and Coinbase) have seen double-digit pullbacks; while some Bitcoin mining companies, after shifting their focus to AI data centers, have recorded double-digit gains year-to-date despite last week's pullback. This divergence indicates a change in the market's pricing approach. In the past, the market tended to treat crypto assets as a whole that moved "up and down together"; now, it is beginning to assess based on different companies' business models and primary business directions.As a result, the correlation between related stocks and Bitcoin has decreased, opening up Alpha space at the individual stock level. The noticeable dispersion of year-to-date (YTD) returns in the table is a direct reflection of this change.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is a divergence between robust growth and a weak labor market, which may be explained by rising productivity.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that we may be seeing the divergence between GDP and employment beginning to resolve.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live stream today at 20:00 (UTC+8) titled "Gold and Silver Reach New Historical Highs | Is This a Flight to Safety or a New Round of Asset Pricing Reconstruction?" At that time, prominent crypto KOLs such as Big Brother, Xiao Zhi, Cong Ge, and Xihe will be invited to discuss the macro background of the recent historical highs in gold and silver prices, focusing on analyzing the risk-hedging logic behind the strength of precious metals, inflation expectations, and changes in liquidity. They will also further compare the pricing differences between gold, silver, and risk assets like Bitcoin in the current cycle.

Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from the global M2 money supply (i.e., the total amount of money in circulation in the market, including cash, demand deposits, time deposits, etc.), and this trend became more pronounced in early 2026. Historically, the correlation between the two has been the basis for bullish predictions, but analysts are now sharply divided on this phenomenon.Fidelity Digital Assets' January report maintains an optimistic outlook, believing that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve's QT plan ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which will be favorable for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound to catch up with M2 growth.However, Mister Crypto points out that the decoupling of Bitcoin prices from M2 typically signals a market top, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. The founder of Capriole Investments believes that the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. Despite the uncertainties, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.

In 2025, the total cryptocurrency spot trading volume reached $18.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, significantly slowing down from the 154% growth rate in 2024. Perpetual contracts, on the other hand, remained strong, growing by 29% to $61.7 trillion, an increase of $13.8 trillion.Binance continued to dominate the market, with a spot trading volume of nearly $7 trillion, accounting for 41% of the top ten exchanges; Bitcoin perpetual contracts reached $25.4 trillion, accounting for 42%. Bybit, MEXC, and Crypto.com each had spot trading volumes of approximately $1.3-1.5 trillion. OKX, Bybit, and Bitget formed the second tier in the perpetual contract market.Stablecoin reserves are highly concentrated, with Binance holding $47.6 billion in USDT and USDC (accounting for 72% of the top ten). In terms of total reserves, Binance leads with $117 billion (31.8%), followed closely by Coinbase with $81 billion (22.1%).

The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase of transitioning from a brief rebound to a structural recovery: as mainstream assets stabilize and sector rotations repair, market sentiment has gradually shifted from cautious observation to rational positioning. The current focus of the industry has shifted from "Is a bull market coming?" to "Who can become the last key piece to complete the bull market puzzle?" At this turning point, on January 6 at 8 PM, the SunFlash special roundtable will collaborate with several industry veterans to discuss the signals of structural recovery, the direction of sectors moving from narrative to value, and the characteristics that the ultimate mainline capable of supporting large-scale liquidity should possess, from the perspectives of capital flow, sector realization capabilities, and market structure.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from the participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times by 2025, with the latest adjustment bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.5%–3.75%. However, the latest policy expectations indicate that, despite rates remaining high since 2008, there may only be room for one more rate cut throughout 2026. The significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path is creating ongoing uncertainty for Bitcoin and the crypto market.Reports indicate that the "dot plot" released by the Federal Reserve in December 2025 shows that policymakers have differing views on the interest rate outlook for 2026, with a similar number of officials expecting no rate cuts, one rate cut, or two rate cuts. This divergence leaves the market lacking clear guidance as it enters 2026. Current median forecasts suggest that the rate will be around 3.6% by the end of 2025 and approximately 3.4% by the end of 2026, implying only one rate cut next year. According to market expectations, CME Group data shows that investors anticipate only about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January meeting, while the probability of a rate cut at the March meeting rises to about 45%. Analysts generally believe that the labor market, inflation trends (especially the impact of tariffs), and overall economic growth will remain key variables influencing policy direction.Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the uncertainty surrounding the selection of a new chairman is also seen as a potential variable. Some analysts believe that the new leadership may continue a gradual easing path, thereby providing support for risk assets in the mid to later stages. Industry perspectives suggest that if the labor market continues to weaken, even if inflation rebounds temporarily, the Federal Reserve may still implement two rate cuts in 2026; however, there is also a pessimistic scenario where if inflation rises again, rate cuts and liquidity injections may be forced to pause, potentially exerting significant pressure on stocks and crypto assets.The report concludes that compared to the market's previous optimistic expectations of a "full dovish shift," the Federal Reserve's current more cautious stance is weakening the sentiment recovery in the crypto market. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the expectation of declining interest rates and leadership changes may still provide phased benefits for high-risk assets like Bitcoin in the future.

CryptoQuant analyst @MAC_D46035 pointed out that there is a persistent divergence between Bitcoin prices and open interest. The analyst stated, "Given that the current market is primarily driven by derivatives, if the expectations for interest rate cuts weaken before the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the current upward momentum may be difficult to sustain."

HSBC pointed out in its latest research report that U.S. regulators are engaged in intense debates over how the "tokenized U.S. stock market" should be incorporated into the regulatory framework, with significant differences in regulatory attitudes between traditional financial institutions and crypto companies.Tokenization transforms real assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate into digital tokens that can circulate on-chain, and how to define and regulate these trading infrastructures has become the core of the controversy. The report states that during the SEC Investor Advisory Committee meeting, there was a clear divide on the question of whether "on-chain stock trading should be regulated in the same way as traditional exchanges." Wall Street institutions, including Citadel Securities, are calling for stricter regulation of DeFi and have submitted a 13-page document to the SEC, arguing that most decentralized trading protocols essentially meet the definition of "exchanges" and should be subject to the same regulatory requirements; the crypto industry, represented by Coinbase's global head of regulatory policy, advocates for differentiated rules for decentralized trading models.SEC Chairman Paul Atkins emphasized the need to find a balance between compliance and innovation, while Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw warned of the investor risks that tokenized stocks may bring. HSBC believes that regulators are unlikely to allow on-chain U.S. stocks aimed at the U.S. market to have significantly lower regulatory requirements than traditional exchanges.The report notes that the SEC may adopt a "regulatory sandbox" approach, allowing tokenized stock platforms to pilot under strict conditions to test risk boundaries. In the long term, policy pressure may drive tokenized stock trading towards a licensed, fully regulated on-chain environment. HSBC stated that despite differing positions, TradFi, DeFi, and regulators have reached a consensus on one point: the scale of the tokenized market is rapidly expanding, and the competition over regulatory authority and models indicates its importance is continuously rising.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at Bank of New York Mellon pointed out in a report that the market has fully digested the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, but there is an increasing consensus that this will be a hawkish rate cut. Further monetary easing will depend on whether the economic data released in March and June 2026 shows weakness or whether inflation continues to decline.The analysts also mentioned that the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chair poses a risk, and the market will assess the policy tendencies of the new leadership. In addition, the FOMC will release the dot plot, and it is expected that there will be significant divergence among committee members regarding the policy direction for 2026, reflecting the dual economic risks.

According to Jin Ten's report, the Federal Reserve may face a series of dissenting votes on interest rate issues in the future, which could weaken the effectiveness of its policy signals. Among the committee composed of 12 voting members, as many as five have expressed opposition or skepticism towards further rate cuts, while three members are in favor of lowering rates. Al-Hussein, a fixed income investment manager at Threadneedle, stated that a split of 7:5 would lead to chaos in the interest rate market. BNY Mellon Investment Management believes that the policy outlook for 2026 will be influenced by political economics.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that evaluating DAT companies using mNAV is incorrect because this valuation method does not take into account the lifecycle of publicly listed companies. "Imagine you have a Bitcoin DAT that announces it will close this afternoon and distribute Bitcoin to investors. Its trading price would be exactly equal to the value of its Bitcoin (mNAV of 1.0)."Matt Hougan's analysis indicates that there are three main reasons for the discount in DAT trading prices: lack of liquidity, high fees, and significant risks. The reason for DAT premiums is only one (limited to the U.S.): whether it increases the cryptocurrency value per share. Most reasons for DATs trading at a discount are certain, while most reasons they might trade at a premium are uncertain. Therefore, most DATs will trade at a discount, with only a few exceptions trading at a premium.Over the past six months, the price fluctuations of DATs have been relatively consistent. Looking ahead, their price differences will become more pronounced. A few DATs perform well and trade at a premium, while many DATs perform poorly and trade at a discount.

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Binance's Ethereum leverage ratio recently soared to a historic high of 0.562, rebounding strongly from a drop to 0.41 in mid-October from 0.53. However, as the leverage ratio continues to climb, the price of ETH has fallen from around $4200 to $2800, creating a clear bearish divergence.This indicates that traders have not reduced their risk during the price decline; instead, they aggressively opened leveraged long positions to buy the dip. This high-leverage environment is extremely fragile, and even a slight decline could trigger a large-scale liquidation chain reaction. The market is like a ticking time bomb, and traders need to be highly vigilant about the current extreme risk state.

According to Jin Ten, data fog has intensified the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policies, with many Fed officials expressing concerns about sticky inflation and taking a cautious stance on further rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields remain within a relatively narrow range as traders await new catalysts to change market pricing. Michael Lorizio, Head of U.S. Rates and Mortgage Trading at Manulife Investment Management, stated that the upcoming release of the Fed's October meeting minutes may further reveal how many policymakers might oppose a rate cut in December.

Glassnode posted on social media that the relative profit realization of altcoins has fallen into the deep capitulation zone, with only about 5% of the altcoin supply in profit, while the profit ratio of Bitcoin has just begun to decline sharply. This unusual divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins is unprecedented in previous cycles.