divergence

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event related to "What will the price of gold (GC) be by the end of June 2026," the overall market expectation remains relatively strong. Among these, the probability of the gold price exceeding $5,000 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $4,900 is 68%, and the probability of reaching $4,600 is about 80%; meanwhile, the probability of being below $4,500 is 55%. Overall, the market maintains a high level of attention on the medium to long-term trend of gold, with some divergence in capital expectations.Gate's performance in the Polymarket collaboration channel continues to lead, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macro uncertainties. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term.Kraken's chief economist Thomas Perfumo stated that the current market is more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the "division" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself, especially against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of Kevin Warsh potentially taking over, leading to a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is still "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000.Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakthrough. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has rarely shown severe divisions, which the market interprets as an increase in uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Institutions such as Bitget Wallet and 21Shares pointed out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer term" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, leading the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.In terms of capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million flowing out on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still have inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling.Meanwhile, while CME positions and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there has not yet been a strong signal of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs; if sentiment improves, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the current market remains characterized by low volatility and low confidence. Overall, Bitcoin is caught between an improving support structure and weak demand, with continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels.

As a CEX platform connecting to Polymarket, Gate's data shows a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the prediction event "Will silver (SI) reach the target price by the end of June?" The probability of reaching $65 by the end of June is 61%, while the probability of being below $60 is 48%. Against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and fluctuations in the metal market, the market's judgment on the price path of metals is becoming cautious, and the long-short game continues to heat up. Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of silver (XAG) contracts on the Gate platform reached $112 million, ranking among the top globally.In addition, Gate Polymarket has completed a new round of functional upgrades and launched the "Upgrade Experience, Enjoy Up to 5,000 USDT Compensation Benefits" campaign simultaneously. During the event, new users can enjoy up to 100 USDT compensation on their first order, while existing users can receive up to 5,000 USDT in compensation, with a reward pool of 10,000 USDT for the earnings leaderboard. In the trend of accelerating integration between prediction markets and derivatives trading, Gate continues to enrich trading scenarios and strengthen platform liquidity and user participation experience.

According to Cointelegraph, Hyperliquid's native token HYPE retested $45 on Tuesday, marking the highest level since October 31, 2025. This rebound has accumulated a 108% increase from the annual low of $21 on January 21. However, market signals are mixed: spot buying is weak, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot has dropped to -41.48 million, diverging from the price increase, indicating that the rise is mainly supported by passive demand rather than aggressive spot buying.Futures sentiment is cautious, with the futures CVD remaining flat at around -748 million for nearly a month. Although open interest (OI) has risen to 1.38 billion, the weak futures CVD suggests that traders lack confidence in chasing the price up. Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that if Hyperliquid continues to capture market share from centralized exchanges, HYPE could rise 200% to $150 by August this year. Currently, HYPE is priced at $43.5, which is 27% lower than its historical high of $59. Analysts warn that if bullish momentum fades, the market may be more susceptible to sharp volatility driven by liquidations.

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

Global market volatility has intensified, with spot gold experiencing a significant drop during the day, with intraday declines exceeding 5%, reaching a new low for this phase. Meanwhile, the price of BTC has shown relatively stable performance, fluctuating around $68,000. The phase divergence between gold and BTC reflects changes in capital allocation among different assets.According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts is $2.744 billion, with an open interest of $451 million. Among them, the trading volume of XAUT contracts on the Gate platform is $230.8 million, with an open interest of $43.28 million, both ranking among the top three globally.Gate continues to strengthen its spot, contract, and ETF product system, supporting users in flexibly positioning long and short in volatile and structural markets, while ensuring a trading experience under extreme volatility with deep liquidity and risk control mechanisms. At the same time, the platform deepens its TradFi layout, supporting spot trading of stocks and metals, with contracts covering assets such as metals, indices, stocks, foreign exchange, and commodities, combined with USDT settlement and up to 100 times leverage, facilitating cross-market asset allocation and risk management.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows signs of bullish divergence. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the daily RSI is diverging from the price, indicating a weakening of selling pressure. In February of this year, the ratio fell back to the key support level of 12-13, which was a resistance in 2017 and has turned into support in 2022 and 2023, potentially becoming a reference for the long-term bottom trend of Bitcoin.Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $906 million over the past month, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF experienced a $3 billion single-day outflow on March 6, creating a significant divergence.Binance Research noted that the current macro volatility has created "opportunities in risk" for Bitcoin. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is driving market fluctuations, but capital is gradually flowing back into BTC. Although the trading volume of U.S. spot ETFs accounts for only about 9% of the total Bitcoin trading volume, which is still below the 30-40% level of the U.S. stock market ETFs, it shows that there is still significant room for institutional entry. Historical data indicates that both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks often experience strong rebounds after geopolitical turmoil.

Matrixport's analysis states that market sentiment remains tense. However, as the market has been trading on the escalation of the situation in the Middle East for a considerable time, the related risks have been largely priced in, with oil prices currently reflecting a geopolitical premium of about $8 to $10 per barrel. If the process of conflict de-escalation occurs faster than the market's general concerns, risk assets may experience a tactical rebound.From a technical perspective, after a large-scale liquidation of positions, Bitcoin has not seen a further significant decline, showing resilience. As the market enters a consolidation phase, the RSI continues to rise, and bullish divergence signals are gradually emerging. As long as this indicator maintains a fluctuating upward trend, the downward momentum of prices may be suppressed. This also means that continuing to increase short positions at current levels has a weakening risk-reward ratio.

According to market news, Bitcoin's recovery today is closely related to a similar rebound in the U.S. stock market, with artificial intelligence and tech stocks leading the market higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index led the gains, rising by 1.05%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 0.68%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 421 points, closing up 0.86% on Tuesday. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, as well as U.S. stocks, is currently at its lowest level since the FTX incident in 2022.Despite gold rising 51% over the past six months while Bitcoin has fallen 43%, on-chain data firms believe that this extreme divergence historically indicates significant upside potential. Additionally, the Coinbase premium index turned positive for the first time since January 15, accompanied by a net inflow of $258 million into spot ETFs on Tuesday, indicating that U.S. institutional buying is returning. QCP Capital founder Darius Sit stated that this divergence reflects changes in liquidity driven by position liquidations and leverage, rather than a failure of Bitcoin's long-term narrative.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated that the Bitcoin market may not have reached its true bottom yet, and "the real bottom may not appear until October 2026." He previously predicted that Bitcoin could drop to the $60,000 range in the third quarter of 2026.Brandt believes that prices may oscillate upward in the short term, but could still fall back to the $50,000 high range within the year. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes pointed out that Ethereum prices may continue to consolidate in the current range until dollar liquidity improves. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at about $1,941, with a decline of over 40% in the past 30 days. However, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, believes that Ethereum is currently in an attractive accumulation zone and emphasized that stablecoin trading volume has increased by about 200% over the past 18 months.In terms of market predictions, Polymarket data shows that there is a 41% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 by the end of February, while the probability of returning to $75,000 is 29%. Within 2026, the probability of Bitcoin returning to $120,000 is 23%, and the probability of breaking $150,000 is only 10%. For Ethereum, the market expects a 76% probability of it reaching $1,500 in 2026, and a 23% probability of dropping to $1,600.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that although Bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the beginning of the year, crypto-related stocks overall have still outperformed BTC. However, within the sector, individual stock returns have shown significant divergence.Specifically, brokerage and trading platforms (such as Robinhood and Coinbase) have seen double-digit pullbacks; while some Bitcoin mining companies, after shifting their focus to AI data centers, have recorded double-digit gains year-to-date despite last week's pullback. This divergence indicates a change in the market's pricing approach. In the past, the market tended to treat crypto assets as a whole that moved "up and down together"; now, it is beginning to assess based on different companies' business models and primary business directions.As a result, the correlation between related stocks and Bitcoin has decreased, opening up Alpha space at the individual stock level. The noticeable dispersion of year-to-date (YTD) returns in the table is a direct reflection of this change.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is a divergence between robust growth and a weak labor market, which may be explained by rising productivity.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that we may be seeing the divergence between GDP and employment beginning to resolve.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live stream today at 20:00 (UTC+8) titled "Gold and Silver Reach New Historical Highs | Is This a Flight to Safety or a New Round of Asset Pricing Reconstruction?" At that time, prominent crypto KOLs such as Big Brother, Xiao Zhi, Cong Ge, and Xihe will be invited to discuss the macro background of the recent historical highs in gold and silver prices, focusing on analyzing the risk-hedging logic behind the strength of precious metals, inflation expectations, and changes in liquidity. They will also further compare the pricing differences between gold, silver, and risk assets like Bitcoin in the current cycle.

Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from the global M2 money supply (i.e., the total amount of money in circulation in the market, including cash, demand deposits, time deposits, etc.), and this trend became more pronounced in early 2026. Historically, the correlation between the two has been the basis for bullish predictions, but analysts are now sharply divided on this phenomenon.Fidelity Digital Assets' January report maintains an optimistic outlook, believing that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve's QT plan ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which will be favorable for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound to catch up with M2 growth.However, Mister Crypto points out that the decoupling of Bitcoin prices from M2 typically signals a market top, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. The founder of Capriole Investments believes that the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. Despite the uncertainties, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.

In 2025, the total cryptocurrency spot trading volume reached $18.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, significantly slowing down from the 154% growth rate in 2024. Perpetual contracts, on the other hand, remained strong, growing by 29% to $61.7 trillion, an increase of $13.8 trillion.Binance continued to dominate the market, with a spot trading volume of nearly $7 trillion, accounting for 41% of the top ten exchanges; Bitcoin perpetual contracts reached $25.4 trillion, accounting for 42%. Bybit, MEXC, and Crypto.com each had spot trading volumes of approximately $1.3-1.5 trillion. OKX, Bybit, and Bitget formed the second tier in the perpetual contract market.Stablecoin reserves are highly concentrated, with Binance holding $47.6 billion in USDT and USDC (accounting for 72% of the top ten). In terms of total reserves, Binance leads with $117 billion (31.8%), followed closely by Coinbase with $81 billion (22.1%).

The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase of transitioning from a brief rebound to a structural recovery: as mainstream assets stabilize and sector rotations repair, market sentiment has gradually shifted from cautious observation to rational positioning. The current focus of the industry has shifted from "Is a bull market coming?" to "Who can become the last key piece to complete the bull market puzzle?" At this turning point, on January 6 at 8 PM, the SunFlash special roundtable will collaborate with several industry veterans to discuss the signals of structural recovery, the direction of sectors moving from narrative to value, and the characteristics that the ultimate mainline capable of supporting large-scale liquidity should possess, from the perspectives of capital flow, sector realization capabilities, and market structure.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from the participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.