divergence

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced massive liquidations, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $1 billion, and Ethereum's liquidation amount exceeded that of Bitcoin. At the same time, Bitcoin contract open interest rose for the second consecutive day to 778,000 BTC, with a sharp increase in open interest at the end of Thursday indicating that Bitcoin traders are adding short positions in a downtrend. In contrast, Ethereum contract open interest has remained stable at around 14 million ETH since June 15, and Ethereum traders have not actively shorted during the decline.The 24-hour cumulative trading volume difference adjusted for open interest shows that short positions continue to dominate among the top 25 cryptocurrencies, with only BNB, SOL, and TON as exceptions. Meanwhile, the 30-day annualized implied volatility index for Bitcoin surged to 53%, the highest since June 7; the volatility index for Ethereum rose to 66%. In the cryptocurrency options market, last week the skew for Bitcoin options approached 30%, with significant premiums for put options. In large trades, put options with a strike price of $53,000 expiring on July 10 have appeared, reflecting strong demand for downside hedging.

CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk stated that the data shows that Binance's Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate is about 370 basis points lower than the median of three exchanges, sitting at approximately 2.8%, which is a low range since 2021, indicating that the bearish pricing in the Binance market is significantly strong.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell to a nearly two-month low on Tuesday, as the divergence between cryptocurrencies and traditional stock markets continued to deepen. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $70,023 on Coinbase, the lowest level since April 7, with a daily decline of over 4% and a weekly decline of 8%, down 44% from the October peak of $126,000.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index set a new historical high of over 7,600 points on Monday, and the Nasdaq index peaked above 27,000 points. Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, stated that Bitcoin is currently the only major asset in a downtrend, and this divergence is worth noting, indicating that Bitcoin resembles a high-beta risk asset linked to macro sentiment rather than an independent hedging tool.Santiment noted that the gap between traditional stocks and cryptocurrencies has become hard to ignore, leading investors to increasingly prefer stocks over Bitcoin and altcoins, with capital often rotating from crypto to the stock market. However, Santiment pointed out that this pattern will not last forever; when mainstream influencers begin discussing the dominance of stocks, it usually indicates that market sentiment is overly biased towards stocks, and market trends often move contrary to the expectations of most traders.

According to Cointelegraph, there is a clear divergence in the industry's views on the current trends in the cryptocurrency market. Economist Timothy Peterson stated that Bitcoin may slowly rise in the summer, expecting to reach a temporary peak by the end of July and perform relatively flat.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sectors show a mixed performance. The SocialFi sector rose 5.90% in 24 hours, with Toncoin (TON) significantly increasing by 8.73%. The DePIN sector increased by 2.99%, with Render (RENDER) rising 9.24% and Grass (GRASS) rising 13.67%.In other sectors, the AI sector rose 0.06%, with Unibase (UB) increasing by 18.95%; the Layer2 sector also rose 0.06%, with Celestia (TIA) increasing by 11.44%.Additionally, the Layer1 sector fell by 0.28%, but NEAR Protocol (NEAR) rose by 12.14%; the CeFi sector decreased by 0.35%, with Bitget Token (BGB) remaining relatively strong, increasing by 0.71%; the Meme sector fell by 1.23%, while MemeCore (M) rose against the trend by 3.63%; the PayFi sector decreased by 1.26%, with Ultima (ULTIMA) surging by 1.59% during the day; the DeFi sector fell by 2.22%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE) pulling back by 3.28% after reaching a new high, dropping below $60.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market performance show that the ssiSocialFi and ssiLayer2 indices rose by 7.27% and 0.09% respectively, while the ssiRWA index fell by 9.13%.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency market analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin has fallen below the key support range of $75,000 to $76,000. If it cannot recover above $76,600, it will be difficult to support expectations for new highs, and the price may drop to the $60,000 range. He also pointed out that there are several CME Bitcoin futures gaps above, with the highest being above $79,000, and that market pullbacks that occur on Fridays often turn bullish again.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event related to "What will the price of gold (GC) be by the end of June 2026," the overall market expectation remains relatively strong. Among these, the probability of the gold price exceeding $5,000 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $4,900 is 68%, and the probability of reaching $4,600 is about 80%; meanwhile, the probability of being below $4,500 is 55%. Overall, the market maintains a high level of attention on the medium to long-term trend of gold, with some divergence in capital expectations.Gate's performance in the Polymarket collaboration channel continues to lead, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macro uncertainties. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term.Kraken's chief economist Thomas Perfumo stated that the current market is more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the "division" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself, especially against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of Kevin Warsh potentially taking over, leading to a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is still "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000.Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakthrough. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has rarely shown severe divisions, which the market interprets as an increase in uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Institutions such as Bitget Wallet and 21Shares pointed out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer term" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, leading the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.In terms of capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million flowing out on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still have inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling.Meanwhile, while CME positions and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there has not yet been a strong signal of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs; if sentiment improves, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the current market remains characterized by low volatility and low confidence. Overall, Bitcoin is caught between an improving support structure and weak demand, with continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels.

As a CEX platform connecting to Polymarket, Gate's data shows a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the prediction event "Will silver (SI) reach the target price by the end of June?" The probability of reaching $65 by the end of June is 61%, while the probability of being below $60 is 48%. Against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and fluctuations in the metal market, the market's judgment on the price path of metals is becoming cautious, and the long-short game continues to heat up. Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of silver (XAG) contracts on the Gate platform reached $112 million, ranking among the top globally.In addition, Gate Polymarket has completed a new round of functional upgrades and launched the "Upgrade Experience, Enjoy Up to 5,000 USDT Compensation Benefits" campaign simultaneously. During the event, new users can enjoy up to 100 USDT compensation on their first order, while existing users can receive up to 5,000 USDT in compensation, with a reward pool of 10,000 USDT for the earnings leaderboard. In the trend of accelerating integration between prediction markets and derivatives trading, Gate continues to enrich trading scenarios and strengthen platform liquidity and user participation experience.

According to Cointelegraph, Hyperliquid's native token HYPE retested $45 on Tuesday, marking the highest level since October 31, 2025. This rebound has accumulated a 108% increase from the annual low of $21 on January 21. However, market signals are mixed: spot buying is weak, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot has dropped to -41.48 million, diverging from the price increase, indicating that the rise is mainly supported by passive demand rather than aggressive spot buying.Futures sentiment is cautious, with the futures CVD remaining flat at around -748 million for nearly a month. Although open interest (OI) has risen to 1.38 billion, the weak futures CVD suggests that traders lack confidence in chasing the price up. Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that if Hyperliquid continues to capture market share from centralized exchanges, HYPE could rise 200% to $150 by August this year. Currently, HYPE is priced at $43.5, which is 27% lower than its historical high of $59. Analysts warn that if bullish momentum fades, the market may be more susceptible to sharp volatility driven by liquidations.

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

Global market volatility has intensified, with spot gold experiencing a significant drop during the day, with intraday declines exceeding 5%, reaching a new low for this phase. Meanwhile, the price of BTC has shown relatively stable performance, fluctuating around $68,000. The phase divergence between gold and BTC reflects changes in capital allocation among different assets.According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts is $2.744 billion, with an open interest of $451 million. Among them, the trading volume of XAUT contracts on the Gate platform is $230.8 million, with an open interest of $43.28 million, both ranking among the top three globally.Gate continues to strengthen its spot, contract, and ETF product system, supporting users in flexibly positioning long and short in volatile and structural markets, while ensuring a trading experience under extreme volatility with deep liquidity and risk control mechanisms. At the same time, the platform deepens its TradFi layout, supporting spot trading of stocks and metals, with contracts covering assets such as metals, indices, stocks, foreign exchange, and commodities, combined with USDT settlement and up to 100 times leverage, facilitating cross-market asset allocation and risk management.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows signs of bullish divergence. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the daily RSI is diverging from the price, indicating a weakening of selling pressure. In February of this year, the ratio fell back to the key support level of 12-13, which was a resistance in 2017 and has turned into support in 2022 and 2023, potentially becoming a reference for the long-term bottom trend of Bitcoin.Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $906 million over the past month, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF experienced a $3 billion single-day outflow on March 6, creating a significant divergence.Binance Research noted that the current macro volatility has created "opportunities in risk" for Bitcoin. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is driving market fluctuations, but capital is gradually flowing back into BTC. Although the trading volume of U.S. spot ETFs accounts for only about 9% of the total Bitcoin trading volume, which is still below the 30-40% level of the U.S. stock market ETFs, it shows that there is still significant room for institutional entry. Historical data indicates that both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks often experience strong rebounds after geopolitical turmoil.

Matrixport's analysis states that market sentiment remains tense. However, as the market has been trading on the escalation of the situation in the Middle East for a considerable time, the related risks have been largely priced in, with oil prices currently reflecting a geopolitical premium of about $8 to $10 per barrel. If the process of conflict de-escalation occurs faster than the market's general concerns, risk assets may experience a tactical rebound.From a technical perspective, after a large-scale liquidation of positions, Bitcoin has not seen a further significant decline, showing resilience. As the market enters a consolidation phase, the RSI continues to rise, and bullish divergence signals are gradually emerging. As long as this indicator maintains a fluctuating upward trend, the downward momentum of prices may be suppressed. This also means that continuing to increase short positions at current levels has a weakening risk-reward ratio.