employment

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that any data, including the upcoming employment report, is unlikely to change his view that interest rates should be cut again.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Musalem expects the labor market to remain close to full employment, with a slight slowdown possible.

According to Jin Shi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the employment report for October will not include the unemployment rate reading. Hassett said, "The household survey was not conducted in October, so we will only get half of the employment report. We will obtain data on the job creation part, but we will not get the unemployment rate, and this situation will only last for one month." The U.S. non-farm employment report consists of two surveys—one is a survey of businesses (which generates the main non-farm employment numbers), and the other is a survey of households (which is responsible for the unemployment rate). While many businesses keep records and report data electronically, it will be more difficult to retrospectively contact workers and ask them to recall their employment status for a specific week in October.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins expects the unemployment rate to rise moderately, and tariffs will keep the inflation rate high until early 2026.

Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker stated in a report: "The U.S. federal government shutdown has delayed the release of almost all federal economic data for September and October. While the government shutdown seems to be coming to an end, statistical agencies will need time to process the backlog of data."Goldman Sachs expects that, assuming the U.S. government reopens before the weekend, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest October employment data early next week (Tuesday or Wednesday), but other major data releases are expected to be delayed. Goldman Sachs indicated that this means the November employment report and inflation report may be "delayed by at least a week." (Jin Shi)

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Mulan stated that the unemployment rate is rising and the labor market is softening.

According to Jin Ten reports, the US dollar index DXY fell to a one-week low as investors continued to digest Thursday's weak US private sector employment data. The surge in layoffs in October reinforced market expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, pointed out that the decline in the dollar may also reflect an improvement in the currency market conditions, as the borrowing amount for the Federal Reserve's overnight standing repurchase facility (SRF) has dropped to zero.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that the job market has slowed down recently, but overall it is still close to full employment.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Hamak stated that the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly this year before falling again.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the Federal Reserve is facing pressure from the dual goals of employment and inflation, and monetary policy is at best only marginally restrictive.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that employment market data suggests that interest rates may be lower than the current level.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, exceeding market expectations of 25,000.

According to Jinshi News, the U.S. October "small non-farm" ADP employment figures will be released tonight at 21:15. As official data has been consistently absent, this data has become a rare barometer for the market. If the employment market improves as expected, the prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December may face new uncertainties.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that hiring is slowing down based on a large amount of real-time data, and this does not require confirmation from the employment report.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Daly stated that it is necessary to continue to apply pressure on inflation without harming employment.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Chicago Fed released an estimate on Monday showing that the U.S. unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the past two months, while the government shutdown has delayed the release of official data. The real-time unemployment rate forecast from the regional Fed indicates that the unemployment rate in October is 4.35%, compared to 4.34% in September.The latest official data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at the beginning of September shows that the unemployment rate in August was 4.3%. The Chicago Fed stated that its estimate may only partially reflect the impact of the government shutdown on federal employee work stoppages. Its method combines data from official sources with channels from the private sector, such as job websites, surveys, and payroll companies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that we may see negative employment data, but the unemployment rate may not necessarily change as a result.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that if the job market faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support a path for another rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if GDP remains resilient or the job market accelerates, the pace of interest rate cuts is expected to slow down.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that despite the government shutdown weakening the ability to observe the economy, the Fed plans to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. Powell stated that there has been no change in the economic outlook since the September meeting, and there are downside risks in the labor market. Federal funds futures contracts show that investors believe the likelihood of a rate cut is nearly 100%.