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DOGE $0.0874 +2.87%
ADA $0.2164 +0.81%
BCH $249.46 -0.83%
LINK $11.84 +1.84%
HYPE $85.25 -0.24%
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QCP Capital: BTC Enters Non-Farm Payroll Data Window

QCP Capital's market weekly report shows that after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 70%. BTC fell approximately 2.5% in a single day, and after nine consecutive days of net inflow, the ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million. However, the dollar failed to maintain a hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, and gold, silver, and BTC all regained their losses.On the Treasury side, on September 9, the first long-end liquidity support operation will be launched, with the purchase limit raised to at least $4 billion (previously $2 billion). The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond auction on August 30 was reported at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the market will closely monitor whether this operation can effectively improve long-end liquidity.In terms of inflation, July PCE was reported at 3.7% (core 3.3%), CPI at 3.4% (core 2.5%), and Brent crude oil rose about 10% in a week due to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a force majeure event in Qatar LNG, with inflationary pressures continuing. Waller stated that if the data continues to trend as it has over the next two weeks, it would support a pause in rate hikes. Coupled with the ADP employment data showing only 38,000 jobs added (the weakest since January), the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to 45-50%.

Non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight, and the market expects an increase of only 56,000 people in August

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non-farm payroll report tonight, with the market expecting an increase of only 56,000 jobs and an unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. The market generally believes that the U.S. job market is currently in a "stable but weak" state, and a weakening employment data may not directly prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with policy focus still on inflation trends.J.P. Morgan's trading desk predicts that if job additions exceed 95,000, the S&P 500 index may drop by 0.5% to 1.25%; if job additions are only between 5,000 and 35,000, the S&P 500 index may rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. The market expects that this non-farm data will become an important variable affecting the Federal Reserve's September policy expectations and the short-term trend of U.S. stocks.Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that the job market is currently not the focus of policy. Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated earlier this week that the employment situation is "stable," while Governor Waller said on Thursday that the employment condition is "satisfactory." This assessment does not imply that the job market is performing strongly, but it suggests that in the absence of further easing in inflation, the Federal Reserve may consider raising interest rates while trying to avoid impacting employment.

Bank of America stated that non-farm payrolls may not be the deciding factor for the interest rate hike in September, but still assesses a rate increase

As the bond market experiences significant fluctuations recently, investors are awaiting two sets of key U.S. data that may influence the Federal Reserve's decision: the non-farm payroll report for August to be released this Friday, and the August CPI data to be published on September 11.However, according to Bank of America, these two pieces of data carry different weights in the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 15-16. The bank believes that the non-farm payroll report is more like an "appetizer," while the "main course" that will truly determine whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates is the CPI.Bank of America analysts stated on Wednesday: "The non-farm payroll is unlikely to be the decisive factor for a rate hike in September. A significantly weak report may reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, but the CPI remains the key data in determining whether the Federal Reserve will follow through with a rate increase. We maintain our judgment for a rate hike in September." Unless there is a significant downside surprise in the non-farm data released on Friday, the employment report is unlikely to become the final deciding factor in the discussions at the September FOMC meeting. The bank particularly emphasized that inflation remains the primary concern for the current Federal Reserve.

first_img Farmmi tokenized stock is actually a Memecoin, with the total supply minted by a single wallet

On Wednesday, the stock price of Nasdaq-listed company Farmmi surged from Tuesday's closing price of $0.1187 to a high of $0.5, with an intraday increase of about 321%. The trigger was a Memecoin named after the mushroom varieties in the company's annual report (Money Mushroom, code JINQIAN) starting to trade against its so-called "tokenized stock" FAMI on the Robinhood Chain.However, on-chain data shows that FAMI is not an official stock token from Robinhood: its total supply of 37,430,000 tokens (close to the total number of Farmmi's circulating shares) was generated in a one-time minting during the creation of the trade, with the deploying wallet retaining 38% and deploying a contract named PoolRepricer to manage the price itself, with no further changes to the supply thereafter. This token has no issuer, no redemption mechanism, and is completely unrelated to real Farmmi stock. In contrast, the official stock tokens from Robinhood are issued by Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Limited, and only authorized participants can subscribe and redeem.In terms of market performance, FAMI reached a high of $1.83 in the USDG pool, and as of 2:28 p.m., it was priced at $0.2135, a 45% premium over the stock price, with a total trading volume in the related pool reaching $131.4 million; the trading volume of JINQIAN against the FAMI pool was about $92 million, and at least 10 more Memecoins were launched within the following 30 minutes.

Next week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls set the path for September, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book reveals the inflation bottom line

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

Analyst: Waller rekindles the possibility of a rate hike in September, but the key still depends on the September non-farm payroll and CPI data

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Waller mentioned in his forward guidance what the market expected him to say, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a rate hike in September. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that anti-inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, but he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target.Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, the market significantly repriced the September Federal Reserve decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the new chair's leadership, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that the recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a rate hike in September.
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