glassnode

Glassnode published that the key price level for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter is still being held. The institution previously pointed out in the "Charting Crypto" report with Colin Basco and the Coinbase Institutional team that BTC faces resistance in the range of $87,000 to $87,800. Since then, the Bitcoin price has been blocked in that range and continues to oscillate and consolidate below.Glassnode believes that if Bitcoin breaks through the current consolidation range, the market may experience significant volatility, but there is still a large area of selling pressure around $90,000 above.

According to on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, the leverage level in the altcoin market remains high. Since the leverage rate peaked earlier this month, the prices of related cryptocurrencies have experienced a pullback, but over 40% of large-cap altcoins still have leverage rates close to the highest levels of the year.The proportion of mid-cap altcoins in a high-leverage state has risen to a year-to-date high. Glassnode points out that if prices continue to decline, a large number of long positions in the market may face the risk of being liquidated.

Glassnode released data on platform X stating that during yesterday's BTC decline, there was once again a situation of seller capitulation. Each wave of loss selling coincided with local bottoms: early August, mid-August, and mid-September.Since the peak in September, profit-taking has slowed down. If this pattern holds, the sell-off just above $80,000 yesterday would mark the bottom.

Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional jointly released the Q4 2026 "Charting Crypto" report. The report suggests that Bitcoin has transitioned from a bottoming phase to an initial recovery in Q3, with an overall positive outlook for Q4, although caution is still advised in the short term.The report shows that the net unrealized profit and loss indicator (NUPL) for Bitcoin has returned to the "optimistic/anxious" range, still below the threshold of the "belief/denial" phase. The supply of Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year continues to increase, with long-term holders largely maintaining their positions during the rebound, and the return of new participants has driven a recent rise in active supply. As of the end of September, there is a dense cost area for Bitcoin above the price, which includes the resistance area that previously limited the rise in September, while multiple layers of support are distributed below.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is currently near a support level, but there is a large cluster of long liquidations below. If the price drops further, it may trigger a chain liquidation, with another liquidation cluster around $75,000. In contrast, over the past week, there has been a continuous accumulation of short liquidation positions above $85,000, and the vulnerability of the long liquidation area below is higher than that of the short liquidation area above.

Co-founder of Glassnode, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, stated based on on-chain data that approximately 6.26 million BTC public keys have been exposed, accounting for 31.2% of the current supply, up from 24.8% at the beginning of 2021.Among them, about 4.33 million were exposed due to address reuse, and approximately 1.94 million are related to script types. He emphasized that this statistic does not indicate that quantum attacks are realistically feasible, nor can it be used to assess the security status of exchanges or custodians.

According to Glassnode data, over 6 million Bitcoins are under publicly visible public keys on the blockchain, accounting for 31.2% of the circulating supply, which is about 5 to 6 percentage points higher than the low point in 2023. Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of Glassnode, stated that since the company's report in May, the exposed supply has increased by 222,000 BTC (approximately 18.2 billion USD), while the total Bitcoin supply during the same period has only grown by 64,000 BTC.Among them, exchanges contributed an incremental 123,000 BTC, currently holding 1.79 million BTC that are publicly visible. There are significant differences among institutions: Coinbase has an exposure ratio of 10%, while Binance reaches as high as 83%; Fidelity holds about 375,000 BTC with an exposure ratio of only 2%, Grayscale is at 49%, Revolut is at 99%, and Robinhood is at 100%. According to this statistical method, the holdings of the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and El Salvador do not show exposure.Public keys can be reused through addresses or become visible directly in certain Bitcoin output types, including early pay-to-public-key outputs and Taproot. A sufficiently capable quantum computer or hypothetical mathematical breakthroughs could allow attackers to derive the corresponding private keys.

The cryptocurrency research platform Glassnode pointed out in the latest issue of The Week Onchain report that within the 30 days ending on October 5, approximately $4.9 billion of "new funds" flowed into Bitcoin, covering corporate treasury purchases, stablecoin growth, and inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. During the same period, Bitcoin achieved a market capitalization increase of $12.8 billion, more than double the size of the new funds.Glassnode stated that new funds only accounted for less than two-fifths of this increase, with the remainder coming from existing market funds being traded at higher prices. Data shows that since the launch of the spot ETF in January 2024, Bitcoin's upward trends have shown similar differentiation, but the scale of inflows accompanying the rises in 2024 and 2025 is far greater than the current situation. Glassnode noted that before inflows recover, the market will rely on existing holders to pay higher prices.Since September 21, Bitcoin has attempted to break through $87,000 four times without success, and as of the time of writing on Thursday, it was around $83,000, down 1% for the month. Glassnode pointed out that on the first week since January when Bitcoin closed above $85,000, about 86% of the tokens transferred to exchanges came from short-term holders who had held for less than 155 days and were in profit, marking the highest single-day proportion in the past year. CryptoQuant data shows that as of October 7, the overall cost basis for short-term holders is approximately $78,250, still in a net profit state.

On Wednesday, the European Union law enforcement agency Europol released two reports urging the industry and policymakers to proactively address the threats posed by quantum computing. One report, titled "Quantum Computing and Cryptocurrency," written by Europol's European Cybercrime Centre, points out that cryptocurrency wallets are "the main exposure point for quantum threats." Wallets rely on private keys for authorized transactions and public keys for verification; a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive the private key from an exposed public key, allowing attackers to access funds without authorization, a moment often referred to as Q-Day. The report states that the hash functions used to link blocks and support mining are fundamentally resistant to quantum attacks.The report believes that cryptocurrency will not collapse due to quantum computing but recommends adopting "proactive defenses," including a phased transition to quantum-resistant cryptography and improving wallet security and key management. Wallets with public keys exposed on-chain cannot be remedied afterward, and the report states that the only solution is to migrate in advance. Glassnode estimated in May this year that 6.04 million BTC (30.2% of the issued supply) have exposed public keys. Upgrading Bitcoin also comes with costs: NIST standardized post-quantum signatures are 10 to 120 times larger than the ECDSA signatures currently used in Bitcoin, which could lead to block space overload and increased transaction fees. The report cites a 2024 study estimating that migrating all unspent transaction outputs would require at least 76 days of cumulative downtime.The second report, "Collect First, Decrypt Later," was completed in collaboration with Carlos III University of Madrid in Spain. It studies the behavior of attackers who collect encrypted data today and decrypt it in the future, finding risks in protocols such as TLS, SSH, and OpenPGP.

Glassnode posted on platform X that the trend of BTC whales net depositing Bitcoin into exchanges has stopped.This trend lasted for over three months since the summer, which is twice as long as other similar trends since 2023, and ended in late August, after which the capital flow has remained negative.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode stated that the largest liquidation cluster for Bitcoin is located around $90,000. If the price reaches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.Glassnode noted that when looking back over the past two months, smaller liquidation clusters can be seen around $83,000 and $75,000. Regardless of which side the price touches, it could accelerate the next round of market fluctuations.

According to Glassnode data, long-term holders of BTC have remained in profit throughout this cycle. This has never happened in previous bear markets since at least 2015.In each previous bear market, the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) indicator would drop below 1 at the bottom of the cycle, causing this group to fall into a loss. However, this time, the indicator bottomed out above 1 and is currently rising again.

According to monitoring by Glassnode, investors who previously bought at high prices in the Bitcoin market are currently selling off. Data shows that there are two groups currently in a loss state: one group consists of investors who bought at a price of $97,000 one to two years ago, and the other group consists of investors who bought at a price of $89,000 six to twelve months ago.Analysis indicates that investors who entered during the price increase in 2025 are currently selling the most Bitcoin daily, while those who bottomed out during the market decline show a strong willingness to hold and are not selling off in large quantities.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode stated that the sell wall above Bitcoin has disappeared. The buy orders absorbed the sell wall at the $85,000 level yesterday, which had been tested multiple times over the past week but failed to break through.Glassnode indicated that the remaining sell orders also seem to have been removed. With the reduction in sell-side liquidity above, the price may rise more quickly.

Glassnode stated that spot traders are turning to the altcoin market. Data shows that the current spot trading volume of altcoins is about 4 times that of Bitcoin's spot trading volume, reaching the highest level since September 2025.Glassnode indicated that the demand for higher-risk assets has increased, a phenomenon that has historically been associated with the formation of Bitcoin's cyclical tops.

Glassnode posted on platform X, stating that spot traders are turning to altcoins, and the total spot trading volume of altcoins has now approached nearly 4 times that of Bitcoin, reaching the highest level since September 2025.Glassnode pointed out that this rise in demand for high-risk assets has often coincided with phase tops of BTC in the past.

According to Glassnode's latest report "The Week On-chain - Escape Velocity," among the major exchanges tracked by Glassnode, Gate has risen 4 positions in the BTC spot trading volume rankings over the past two years, achieving the largest increase on the list and ranking third globally. During the same period, Gate's market share of BTC spot trading volume within the statistical scope surged from 2% to 9.1%, a net increase of 7.1 percentage points, the highest growth among all exchanges.The report indicates that Gate's rise is characterized by long-term effectiveness and sustainability. Over the past 24 months, Gate has remained in the top three for BTC spot trading volume for 9 months, demonstrating a continuously strengthening market competitiveness. As an exchange leading in both ranking improvement and market share growth among major platforms, Gate's trading activity and market participation in the BTC spot market continue to expand.Glassnode also pointed out that the 24-hour spot trading volume across all exchanges has rebounded by 121% from the low in August, and the returning funds are flowing to multiple trading platforms. Against the backdrop of an overall recovery in market activity, Gate's simultaneous improvement in market share and global ranking is particularly remarkable, fully showcasing its sustained growth momentum and increasingly expanding industry influence in the BTC spot market.

Glassnode stated that over time, it seems increasingly unlikely that a decline of the same depth as in past cycles will occur again in the later stages of this market. The "four-year cycle" pattern that the market previously relied on has not been reflected in this bear market.Data shows that the drawdowns in the past three cycles exceeded twice that of this cycle, and there are still several weeks until the cycle low point; in contrast, this time BTC has only fallen about 30% from its historical high, and the price is currently rising.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X: Bitcoin has flashed momentum signals that have initiated the last two bull markets, and the MVRV has once again crossed above its 365-day moving average.Glassnode stated that this is the same crossover that occurred at the beginning of each bull market in 2019 and 2023.