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Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

After hitting a bottom of around $60,000, Bitcoin has undergone more than two months of consolidation, with the price gradually climbing towards the $70,000 range.

CryptoOnchain posted on social media that when the price of Ethereum dropped to the $2000 range, Token Transfers (14-day moving average) surged sharply to 2.75 million, the highest level since August 2025. This spike indicates panic selling and a "cleanout" of weak hands. Historical data shows that such extreme activity often signals a depletion of selling pressure and may form a local bottom.It is reported that Token Transfers (14-day moving average) is an on-chain data metric used to observe the trends and intensity of token transfer activities on the Ethereum (or related blockchain) network. It typically refers to the simple moving average of the number of transfer transactions for all ERC-20 standard tokens on the network over the past 14 days.

glassnode stated that the Bitcoin "Yardstick" indicator has reached an all-time low, significantly below previous bottoms, indicating that Bitcoin's price is severely undervalued relative to network security (hash rate).Historical data shows that such extreme lows often mark the convergence of exhausted downside potential and long-term opportunities, and in similar past situations, Bitcoin's price typically experiences a significant rebound. Note: The Bitcoin "Yardstick" indicator was developed by Capriole Investments and is defined as Bitcoin's market capitalization divided by hash rate, normalized over 2 years of data, similar to a stock's price-to-earnings ratio, used to assess Bitcoin's valuation.

Cryptanalysis expert Ericonomic published an analysis on the recent significant price drop of HYPE. He stated that the decline from the $45-50 range to around $20 was not coincidental, but rather caused by three very specific sources of selling pressure. However, these pressures have either been resolved or are nearing exhaustion.Most trackers still show that approximately 9.9 million HYPE tokens are released monthly, leading many users to believe there is a selling pressure of about $200 million each month, which is a mistaken assumption. Unlocking does not mean distribution, distribution does not equate to sales, and sales do not necessarily refer to selling on the public market. On-chain data shows that only 7-10% of the initially unlocked HYPE tokens were used for market selling, with the remainder flowing into OTC trading and staking.As HYPE enters the fourth quarter of 2025, the derivatives structure is not healthy, with long positions dominating. With the continuous liquidation, most aggressive long positions have disappeared, and there are still over $150 million in long positions with liquidation prices below $15, but the downward pressure on prices from leverage has basically dissipated.The initial cluster of 16 addresses that participated in HYPE financing through Tornado Cash accumulated about 4.4 million HYPE at an average price of around $8.8 per token, equivalent to a supply of $80 million. Starting in early January this year, this entity adopted a highly mechanized liquidation strategy: unlocking about one wallet per day. If fully sold, it would push the HYPE price below $10, but this has not actually occurred.When the Tornado cluster aggressively sold on-chain, the market maker Wintermute immediately began arbitraging. Wintermute sold the HYPE selling pressure it absorbed to multiple large off-chain buyers. In the past 30 days, Wintermute has arbitraged over $70 million in HYPE, with on-chain data showing buyers including Resolv Labs, Auros Global, and others.Ericonomic's analysis has sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community, boosting market optimism for HYPE's future prospects. According to market data, HYPE has risen above $25.7, with a 24-hour increase of 16.2%.

"1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin released a technical analysis on ETH, stating that the decline of ETH's wave C began when the overall downtrend was obstructed, and it failed to decline during the emergence of wave 5, indicating a depletion of downward momentum.He believes that ETH has re-entered wave (5) of the ascending channel formed since last April. Based on this technical structure, he provided theoretical target levels of $5413, with an aggressive target level of $7155.

The founder of MaiTong MSX, Bruce, posted on platform X stating that recently BTC selling pressure has encountered resistance, marginal selling has been exhausted, and there is actual capital absorbing the chips below, which is not a sentiment-driven buy. He holds a bullish outlook on this.

The Prysm team released a mainnet incident review report stating that on December 4, during the Ethereum mainnet Fusaka period, nearly all Prysm beacon nodes experienced resource exhaustion when processing specific attestations, leading to an inability to respond to validator requests in a timely manner, resulting in a significant number of missing blocks and attestations.The incident affected epochs 411439 to 411480, totaling 42 epochs, with 248 blocks missing out of 1344 slots, resulting in a missing rate of approximately 18.5%; the network participation rate dropped to as low as 75%, and validators lost approximately 382 ETH in witness rewards. The root cause was that Prysm received attestations from nodes that may have been out of sync with the mainnet, which referenced the block root of the previous epoch.To verify their legitimacy, Prysm repeatedly replayed old epoch states and executed high-cost epoch transitions, causing nodes to trigger resource exhaustion under high concurrency. The related defect originated from Prysm PR 15965, which had been deployed to the testnet a month earlier but did not trigger the same scenario.The temporary solution provided by the officials is to enable the --disable-last-epoch-target parameter in version v7.0; the subsequently released v7.1 and v7.1.0 included a long-term fix by verifying attestations using the head state, avoiding the need to replay historical states.Prysm stated that the issue gradually alleviated after December 4 at UTC 4:45, and by epoch 411480, the network participation rate had recovered to over 95%.The Prysm team pointed out that this incident highlights the importance of client diversity; if a single client accounts for more than one-third of the network, it may lead to temporary inability to finalize; if it exceeds two-thirds, there is a risk of an invalid chain at finalization. They also reflected on the unclear communication regarding feature switches and the failure of the testing environment to simulate large-scale out-of-sync nodes, and will improve testing strategies and configuration management in the future.

Arca's Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman published an article this morning calling this round of decline "the strangest cryptocurrency sell-off in history." The market clearly has many positive factors ------ the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the impending end of quantitative tightening, strong consumer spending, record corporate earnings, and sustained demand for artificial intelligence, among others; meanwhile, all the so-called reasons for the cryptocurrency sell-off are unfounded ------ MSTR has not sold off, Tether is not insolvent, DAT has not reduced its holdings, Nvidia has not faced a crisis, the Federal Reserve has not turned hawkish, and the trade war has not restarted.Jeff stated: "I still don't understand why cryptocurrencies keep falling. The reason may be simple: despite advancements in technology and positive developments in Washington's policies and Wall Street's movements, they cannot change the fact that there is a lack of buying pressure within the current cryptocurrency ecosystem. Native crypto investors are exhausted, and new funds have not entered the market. Although investors are forward-looking, they will not easily change their investment processes ------ therefore, even though institutions like Vanguard, State Street, BNY Mellon, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs are about to enter the market, they are not yet in position today. The influx of funds will not truly arrive until these institutions can easily allocate crypto assets through the existing authorization systems and investment processes."

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs partners stated that there are signs of a bull retreat in the US stock market, and the sell-off will continue before stabilizing.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that despite Bitcoin falling below $100,000 and hitting a new low since June, raising concerns about a "crypto winter," he believes the current market is closer to the bottom rather than the beginning of a new long-term bear market.Matt Hougan mentioned that retail investors are currently in a state of "extreme despair," with frequent leverage liquidations and market sentiment hitting new lows; however, institutional investors and financial advisors still maintain a bullish outlook, continuously positioning in Bitcoin and other crypto assets through ETF channels. He pointed out that institutions are becoming the main driving force in the market.Matt Hougan indicated that the selling pressure from retail crypto investors is nearing "exhaustion," and he believes that the bottom for Bitcoin prices is about to appear, and it will come sooner than expected. He believes Bitcoin still has a chance to reach new highs this year, with prices potentially rising to the range of $125,000 to $130,000, and if the trend is favorable, it could even reach $150,000. Hougan believes that as institutional buying continues to grow, the next phase of the crypto market will be driven by more rational capital.

ChainCatcher news, Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua posted on social media that the overall market has seen liquidations amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, primarily affecting market makers and active traders, causing damage to the market far beyond imagination.Especially for the altcoins that have been wiped out in one click, it will take a long time to restore investor confidence and liquidity. It is strongly recommended that trading platforms allocate a portion of their profits to establish a liquidity management fund to avoid extreme situations where liquidity is exhausted and goes to zero. The Federal Reserve also has market regulation functions, and it is believed that platforms making tens of billions in annual profits have the ability and responsibility to establish such mechanisms. Otherwise, the market will suffer devastating damage, and the injured will not only be platform users but also the market and the trading platforms themselves.

ChainCatcher news, DWF Labs Executive Partner Andrei Grachev stated that today's market crash is not due to fundamental factors like the FTX collapse, but rather due to tariff announcements and the subsequent leverage liquidations. Market liquidity has been exhausted, but Bitcoin and strong projects should recover soon.

ChainCatcher message, previously Binance announced the delisting of ALPHAUSDT perpetual contract, ALPHA briefly surged by 70%, current price is $0.026.

ChainCatcher message, Binance Futures will automatically liquidate the ALPHAUSDT U-margined perpetual contract on September 23, 2025, at 17:00, and the trading pair will be delisted after the liquidation is completed. Starting from September 23, 2025, at 16:30, users will not be able to open new positions in this contract. It is recommended that users close their positions on their own before trading stops to avoid automatic liquidation of their positions.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport's latest report indicates that the crypto market is entering a seasonal cooling phase, with a consolidation trend expected to last until August. Technical indicators show that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in an overbought state, posing a risk of a pullback in the short term. The end of "U.S. Cryptocurrency Week" also suggests that market momentum may have peaked.The cryptocurrency policy report originally scheduled for release by the White House on July 22 has been postponed to July 30, and it is expected to lack substantial policy content due to its timing being close to Congress's summer recess. Furthermore, the government is currently prioritizing the "GENIUS Act," which focuses on stablecoins linked to U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting the rising strategic position of digital assets in the macro-financial structure.Matrixport warns that as the summer lull approaches and market momentum weakens, leveraged long positions will face liquidation risks, especially as Ethereum's open contracts surged from $14 billion to $25 billion, while the funding rate increase has also raised holding costs. In the absence of sustained upward momentum, confidence may waver, and the market will enter a dominant summer consolidation phase.

ChainCatcher news reports that on social media, on-chain data analyst Murphy published statistics stating that the cost basis for ETH accumulated from January to February 2025 is roughly between $3,200 and $3,500. A cluster of addresses has been intensively accumulating at $3,475, totaling 1.66 million ETH. This group did not sell during the drop of ETH to $1,900 and instead added to their positions, currently holding 1.94 million ETH with a reduced cost basis of $3,150.Additionally, the cost basis for the chips accumulated in mid-February 2025 is approximately between $2,600 and $2,800. This group started to cut losses as the ETH price fell below $2,300, and currently, only the chips at $2,800 and $2,630 remain unchanged, holding 1 million and 850,000 ETH respectively.As the price of the coin continues to decline, new demand for ETH has gradually weakened, especially after the price fell below $2,000, where data shows there is almost no new purchasing power.Murphy explains that the high-position trapped chips, after a series of self-rescue replenishments, now seem to have exhausted their purchasing power; the current price of $1,850 is the cost price for large holders who accumulated two years ago. When the price drops to this level, they start to replenish (buying back parts sold at high positions to average down costs), thus forming a support effect. If this price level cannot provide support, the decline may reach $1,600 and $1,250, which are the "remaining support levels from three years ago's accumulation."From the overall behavior of current investors, the most important factor is still the reconstruction of consensus on ETH's value. If an effective consensus cannot be formed, the currently trapped chips at high positions of $2,630 (850,000), $2,800 (1 million), and $3,150 (1.945 million) will all become significant obstacles on the path to recovery.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's technical chart shows signs of seller exhaustion at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) support level, suggesting that the price may rebound.Since last Wednesday, Bitcoin's price decline has stalled at the 200-day moving average support level, with the daily candlestick charts on Tuesday and Friday being particularly noteworthy, both showing small bodies with elongated lower shadows, indicating that the bears have failed to maintain a position below the 200-day moving average.Technical analysts point out that this candlestick pattern appears after a significant downtrend and typically signals a potential bullish reversal. Traders generally view this as evidence of weakening selling pressure, which could translate into a new phase of upward movement. Based on this, Bitcoin may rebound to around $95,000 on Sunday, and if it breaks through this level, traders may once again set their sights on the $100,000 mark.On the other hand, if it falls below the 200-day moving average support level, Bitcoin may face a deeper decline.