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TRX $0.3345 -0.22%
DOGE $0.0897 +0.33%
ADA $0.2195 +0.02%
BCH $260.14 +1.24%
LINK $12.74 +2.72%
HYPE $85.13 -3.22%
AAVE $131.72 -1.32%
SUI $0.8240 +3.25%
XLM $0.1900 +3.18%
ZEC $1,154.58 -6.13%

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"The Fed's Mouthpiece": How Waller Explains Inflation Determines the Path He Will Take

According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," in his latest article, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will face a core issue during his first major speech this week in Jackson Hole: whether the persistently high inflation in the United States is caused by one-time shocks such as tariffs and wars, or if the economy itself is still overheating.This judgment will directly determine the direction of interest rates and is currently the biggest divergence within the Federal Reserve. In the July meeting, three officials supported a rate hike, while other officials indicated the possibility of further tightening policies, but Walsh has not made a clear statement. Since taking office, he has deliberately reduced policy guidance, and now both the market and his Federal Reserve colleagues are waiting for him to systematically explain his judgment for the first time.The key to Walsh's term ultimately depends on how he explains why the previous policies failed to bring inflation back to 2%. If the policies of lowering interest rates and supporting employment over the past two years were fundamentally wrong because the labor market is actually stronger than the Federal Reserve judged, then Walsh needs to push for a reversal of interest rate cuts. However, this would conflict with the previous demands from Trump and Bessenet for further rate cuts.

first_img HP, ASUS, and Acer reduce production capacity in Southeast Asia, with the focus of notebook production returning to China

According to DIGITIMES, the NB supply chain has reported that brand manufacturers are significantly returning to production in China, with "returning to China for production" becoming a new trend. Brands such as HP, ASUS, and Acer have recently noticeably reduced their originally planned capacity shifts to Southeast Asia, with production focus returning to Chongqing or Kunshan in China, and increasing orders to Chinese ODM or EMS manufacturers and the proportion of private label products. This involves production lines at Quanta, Inventec's Thailand factories, and Compal, Wistron’s Vietnam factories, which may be affected by customer transfers. Lenovo, Dell, and Apple, on the other hand, remain relatively unchanged.The supply chain indicates that after the U.S. equivalent tariffs were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, the impact of substitute tariffs is smaller, and the production costs for NB in Southeast Asia are on average $9 higher per unit than in China. The gross profit margin for brand manufacturers per unit of NB is mostly between 3% to 10%. Based on a low-priced model with an average price of about $300, the $9 difference is close to or even exceeds their profit, resulting in unprofitable shipments. Local Chinese governments are also demanding increased production due to reduced tax revenues, or they will reclaim past subsidies, creating a pull for returning production.Relevant ODM personnel stated that they will respect customer decisions, and if they cannot take on a single product, they will shift production locally to servers and other product lines such as networking. Lenovo is more cautious due to its diversified layout, with limited relocation; Dell has not significantly returned due to the high proportion of U.S. government orders; Apple targets the high-end market and promotes automation, with the main reason for relocating MacBook production from Shanghai being the pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, and its plans in Vietnam remain unchanged to date.
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