momentum

Crypto KOL Ansem analyzed on platform X that a price alert has been set at $750 on Zcash, which has been consolidating for nearly a year. If it breaks to a new high, the next wave of this trend will be very strong. Ansem emphasized that there are currently no long positions held, but it would be a mistake not to enter a position if it breaks out.

According to a research report by NYDIG, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7%, and tech stocks increased by 43.5%, indicating that this round of decline is not due to macro risk aversion, but rather specific supply pressures unique to Bitcoin.The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, with the DAT complex overall transitioning from a demand engine to a supply risk. In terms of ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing that distribution channels remain competitive.In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, the positive funding rate combined with a rebound in open interest indicates that leveraged long positions are rebuilding, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% from its historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, referencing the cycles of 2018 and 2022 (with a gradually narrowing decline of about 70%).

According to Cointelegraph, Real Vision's chief cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of a bear market, with the downward momentum beginning to slow.Coutts pointed out that compared to the previous market cycle, Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50%, indicating that the current decline may not be as severe as past bear markets. However, Coutts also warned that markets rarely follow historical patterns so perfectly. "They basically move at their own pace. Currently, all trend indicators are clearly bearish." The good news is that some early technical signs suggest that selling pressure is easing. "I am starting to see momentum indicators showing bullish divergence on longer time frames. This indicates acceleration, or more precisely, that negative momentum is slowing down, but that does not mean that we have technically exited the bear market."

In 2026, Sandisk rose over 530% cumulatively, and Micron rose over 230% cumulatively, reflecting the market's demand for companies benefiting from the growth in AI demand in the first half of the year.Subsequently, the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) fell 25% from its peak in June, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped about 12%. After reports that Meta was advancing the sale of excess GPU capacity, AI infrastructure stocks and computing service providers were sold off, and Bitcoin rebounded from a two-year low.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for 40 consecutive days, with the latest report at -0.1569%. This indicator is often regarded as an important reference for measuring the strength of Bitcoin demand in the U.S. market.

According to Cointelegraph, analysts say that the recovery of Bitcoin depends on the success of the US-Iran peace agreement. On-chain data shows that despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin still appears weak. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, stated that although Bitcoin briefly recovered to $67,000, "momentum remains weak, with declining trading volume and stagnant on-chain indicators suggesting a lack of confidence in the rebound, which may quickly fade." If the US-Iran ceasefire agreement breaks down, Bitcoin will face a "volatile path," potentially gaining buying interest as a hedge asset, only to be pushed towards key support levels by broader risk-averse sentiment.Swissblock stated on Monday that Bitcoin's price momentum and OBV indicator remain in a state of "weak momentum and low participation," both being negative values. The price momentum indicator is at -1, and OBV is at 1.7 million, at a multi-year low. Swissblock pointed out that in a typical bear market, momentum weakens first, followed by a contraction in OBV, leading to a downward price breakout. History shows that stronger recovery signals appear when both turn positive, and until then, "the risk of retesting the lows remains."

According to Jinshi, the S&P 500 index has ended its consecutive 9-week upward trend.

According to CoinDesk, Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Asset Research at Charles Schwab, stated that the recent weakness in Bitcoin is not due to a decline in institutional demand or Michael Saylor selling Bitcoin, but rather it is losing its position as the market's dominant momentum trading asset.He pointed out that crypto investors have traditionally followed momentum, and currently, momentum has left the crypto space. Funds are flowing into hot narratives such as AI-related stocks and IPOs, with SpaceX's IPO potentially valued at $1.8 trillion, and a number of other IPOs collectively raising over $200 billion, drawing liquidity away from the crypto market. Crypto traders are also speculating on pre-IPO stocks through synthetic derivative contracts on DEXs like Hyperliquid.Ferraioli downplayed the impact of Strategy selling 32 Bitcoins, believing it merely provided a convenient narrative for a broader trend that has already occurred. He noted that while Bitcoin ETFs have expanded access channels, this asset class is still primarily dominated by retail and momentum traders. Summer has historically been a season of weakness for Bitcoin, and there is currently a lack of buying reasons as investors have other options.

According to analyst Adler's latest post, the Bitcoin Impulse indicator, which reflects Bitcoin price momentum, has dropped to -59, indicating that market momentum has quickly turned negative; meanwhile, the 30-day Net Taker Volume Position Change indicator, which measures changes in active buying and selling power, has also fallen below the zero axis for the first time in nearly three months, suggesting that the active buying demand that drove the previous upward trend has basically been exhausted.Momentum indicators typically lead changes in capital flow. Currently, both the fast and slow momentum indicators are in deep negative territory, with the fast momentum close to -90 and the slow momentum quickly dropping to -59 after falling below the zero axis at the end of May. On the other hand, although the 30-day active buying demand indicator has just turned negative, it has not yet entered the "bear market zone."Adler believes that the current market is transitioning from a "buyer-dominated" phase to a "seller-dominated" phase, with an overall risk-off state. If active buying demand further declines and enters the bear market zone, while momentum continues to remain negative, it will further confirm the market's bearish trend; conversely, if active buying returns above the zero axis, it may provide an opportunity for market rebound.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage division stated that as the S&P 500 index continues its historic winning streak, hedge funds bought U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in six months last week.

Recently, the technology sector of the US stock market has continued its structural strength, with AI and leading consumer electronics companies remaining the focus of capital attention. According to Gate market data, NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently priced at about $210.67, with a slight intraday pullback, but the demand for AI computing power and expectations for data center expansion remain core drivers in the medium to long term. In the derivatives market, according to CoinGlass data, NVDAX on the Gate platform reached a trading volume of $4.6 million in 24 hours, with open contracts totaling $3.42 million, both ranking first globally.As global user demand for traditional asset allocation such as US stocks continues to grow, Gate is continuously bridging the gap between cryptocurrency and traditional financial trading scenarios through a unified account system. Users can conveniently participate in trading mainstream global assets such as stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities through a single USDT account, further enhancing cross-market trading efficiency and capital usage flexibility. Gate has launched over 130 perpetual contract targets related to US stocks, as well as over 430 CFD contract targets, and continues to expand its diverse product lines including spot tokens, perpetual contracts, and on-chain assets, supporting 24/7 trading to provide users with a more flexible and efficient one-stop global asset trading experience.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, which is an important signal indicating that the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero axis, every rebound of BTC still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently released fourth part of "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and VIX volatility index. The core idea is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum.In addition, CryptoQuant has added a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, changes in demand over the past four weeks, and fund distribution among various ETFs. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum is only $362.8 million, while this indicator reached a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and fell to a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important indicator for observing U.S. spot demand: when this index consistently stays above zero, it indicates that U.S. buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its movement may lack genuine support from U.S. demand.

10x Research released a report stating that the momentum of altcoins is fading in the early stages, while Bitcoin still dominates, and trading volume has declined again. The upward momentum of altcoins is hindered by the 30-day moving average, failing to break through; if it falls below this moving average, long positions should be closed.The report indicates that the best current positions are BNB (Grayscale ETF application, Coinbase roadmap, etc.) and TRX (Tron actively repurchasing treasury assets, Moscow Exchange launching the MOEXTRX index). Potential profit-taking may occur in: SUI (up 21% this week, CME futures launching on May 29, $143 million treasury staking), ONDO (up 18.4%, collaborating with JPMorgan and Ripple for the first tokenized treasury redemption, part of the infrastructure being built), TON (down 14%, due to security controversies and trust concerns triggered by the deletion of a well-known Telegram account). Avoid ETH, HYPE, TRUMP, MKR. HYPE dropped 9.9% after the ETF launch, a typical case of "buy the expectation, sell the fact."The report also lists three major catalysts for this week: the hearing on the "Clarity Act," Powell's power transition to Waller, and CPI/PPI data.

According to a report by Cryptopolitan, a market report released by Wintermute indicates that Bitcoin's breakthrough of $80,000 is primarily driven by a short squeeze in the perpetual futures market, rather than by spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest has increased by about $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume has dropped to a two-year low. When Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to close their positions, triggering a buying spree that pushed prices higher. Wintermute warns that the rally, lacking support from spot demand, is fragile, and the market may face a sharp reversal.In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs have reached $623 million, and the exchange's Bitcoin inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, but these factors are not enough to offset short-term risks. The U.S. CPI data being higher than expected and the uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair may also exacerbate market pressures. Wintermute states that $85,000 is still a possibility, but the risk-reward ratio for buying at the current price level is poor.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog post that the Bitcoin bull market truly began with the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran on February 28. AI capital expenditures, war spending, and countries' investments in physical infrastructure to ensure supply chain security will drive the reckless expansion of fiat credit, and Bitcoin will continue to benefit.Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $60,000 earlier this year, reiterating that breaking through the previous high of $126,000 is "inevitable." Hayes believes that the scale of this round of AI capital expenditures is unprecedented, with central banks like the Federal Reserve printing more money. The declining trust in dollar assets will shift towards investments in physical infrastructure and commodity reserves, further driving fiat expansion.He expects that once Bitcoin breaks through $90,000, the momentum will accelerate, and he will raise the risk exposure of Maelstrom's portfolio to the maximum. Besides Hyperliquid and Zcash, Hayes' next most favored altcoin is NEAR, which he will explain in subsequent articles regarding how its privacy narrative and Intent architecture create positive cash flow for the protocol. He concluded by stating that while it is currently a bull market, there will eventually be a time to sell, but that time is not now.