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Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin may be shifting from "leading risk assets" to "leading bearish signals."

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.

first_img Bloomberg: The growth of the cryptocurrency industry is decoupling from Bitcoin prices, with institutions focusing on long-term infrastructure and practical use cases

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week, with a market value evaporating by about $235 billion within seven days, nearly halving from last year's peak. The market value of altcoins has shrunk from a peak of $431 billion in November 2021 to about $170 billion, with less than 1,700 of the tens of millions of tokens created in recent years still having substantial trading activity. However, in stark contrast to the price trends, the most commercially valuable businesses in the crypto industry are accelerating growth.The annual trading volume of stablecoins reached about $390 billion, with total trading volume soaring 72% to $33 trillion by 2025. Over $30 billion in assets have been tokenized, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has an asset size of $2.4 billion. Visa and Mastercard are expanding stablecoin settlement capabilities, and Nasdaq is collaborating with Kraken to offer tokenized stocks.Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone stated that the most important technology is stablecoins; when you have stablecoins, you don't need XRP or Bitcoin to store value. We are experiencing a cleansing, and this has only just begun. EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson pointed out that "the Bitcoin price chart used to be the entire crypto story, but it is no longer."

QCP Capital: Strategy of selling coins combined with macro pressure, Bitcoin fell over 11% weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."
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