outcomes

a16z partner Sarah Wang recently published an article pointing out that AI application layer products should not price based on tokens like the model layer, but rather on "recognizable work units." The article argues that token pricing anchors the value of application products to a unit whose cost is continuously declining, making it difficult for customers to predict context length, retrieval volume, or reasoning time, and improperly compares applications to raw computing power.The article suggests a tiered pricing model based on value levels: model layer priced by tokens; application layer priced by recognizable work units for customers (such as account research briefs, code modifications, completed queries), which can be encapsulated through Credits; and scenarios that are attributable and have clear value priced directly by results (such as resolved customer service conversations, qualified leads). The design of Credits should map to different levels of work difficulty to protect gross margins and distinguish "work value" from "delivery cost." The article uses Clay as an example, where its new pricing separates Data Credits (third-party data) from Actions (orchestrated work), only passing on costs for reasoning models with significant cost fluctuations without markup. The author believes that pricing anchored to value rather than computing cost allows customers to understand spending in relation to value, while also benefiting product providers in maintaining profit margins.

According to Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed the review of the first batch of predictive market ETFs, resulting in the postponement of more than 24 products originally scheduled for launch. Insiders revealed that the SEC is requesting issuers to provide further clarification on product mechanisms and information disclosure details, and this delay is expected to be temporary.Issuers such as Roundhill Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, and GraniteShares submitted applications in February this year to launch ETF products linked to real-world events such as election results, economic recessions, tech layoffs, and oil prices.According to SEC rules, ETF applications typically become effective automatically 75 days after submission unless the regulatory agency intervenes. Currently, Roundhill has set May 5 as the effective date, and Bitwise and GraniteShares' products are also expected to launch around the same time. The market is closely watching whether the SEC will ultimately approve these products that open up the "event contract" asset class.Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated, "This is a rapidly maturing field, and regulation is maturing in parallel," noting that innovative products like Bitcoin ETFs have also gone through a lengthy review process but ultimately launched successfully.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, a company in the Ethereum treasury, stated in an interview with CNBC, "The reason the stock market remains resilient is that even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected." He pointed out that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and could rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which has a significant stimulating effect on the economy; meanwhile, the rise in oil prices by $20 per month only adds about $12 billion in burden to households, "Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits right now."Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, "Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed out in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war, and at that time, no American troops had even set foot on the European or Pacific battlefields." He believes, "The market is very good at pricing in outcomes ahead of time; the current rise in the stock market means that the market is pricing in a favorable outcome, although I can't clearly articulate the specific reasons, but that's the signal conveyed by the market's performance."Regarding the three major variables in the current market— the Iran war, corporate earnings reports, and interest rates—Tom Lee stated, "Among the three, only war can create tail events in both directions, so this is the variable that deserves the closest attention." In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy sector and pointed out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.

The user from the crypto community, Internet Child (@0xinternetchild), posted on social media stating that the data provider ISW for the prediction market platform Polymarket is suspected of deliberately manipulating market outcomes.Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded by saying that a 2-of-3 majority decision mechanism should be adopted among ISW, deepstatemap, and liveuamap, believing that distributed oracles and distributed decision-making are natural solutions to such issues.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated at the Swell 2025 conference regarding the increasing partisanship in cryptocurrency: "I think many Democratic leaders realize that technology should not be partisan. Regulation should focus on outcomes, not the technology itself; politicization is a cliff."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Polymarket has integrated Chainlink's oracle system to provide verifiable data and automate market solutions.The report states that this collaboration combines Chainlink Data Streams with Chainlink Automation to provide low-latency, timestamped price reports and trigger on-chain settlements at preset times.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Mark Cabana, head of U.S. bank interest rate strategy, stated that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to at least 3%. He pointed out that the market underestimates the potential range of outcomes in which the Federal Reserve could lower rates below 3%.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Jinshi citing CCTV News, on May 11 local time, World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala issued a statement.In the statement, Okonjo-Iweala said: "I am very pleased to see the positive results achieved from the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States. The talks mark an important step forward, and we hope this heralds a bright future. In the current global tense situation, this progress is not only very important for China and the United States, but also crucial for other countries in the world, including the most vulnerable economies."

ChainCatcher news, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal expressed concerns about the lack of a clear plan from the U.S. SEC regarding FTX's repayment to creditors using stablecoins or other cryptocurrencies. Grewal's comments were in response to a document submitted on Friday, in which the SEC reserved its rights concerning the approval of FTX Trading Ltd.'s joint bankruptcy protection plan by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.On Sunday, Grewal stated on social media platform X: The U.S. SEC did not explicitly state that this conduct is illegal. He referenced the wording used by the securities regulator in a court document, where the SEC wrote: The SEC has not expressed an opinion on this conduct. Under federal securities law, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission does not express an opinion on the legality of the transactions outlined in the plan and reserves the right to challenge transactions involving crypto assets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, the on-chain prediction liquidity layer Azuro is developing autonomous agents that can operate within the Azuro ecosystem using the autonomous AI agent network Olas, which predicts sports event outcomes. Azuro will also host a hackathon to provide tools and frameworks for developing new autonomous agents and expanding use cases for prediction markets.It is reported that Azuro is the leading infrastructure layer for sports and entertainment prediction markets on EVM chains and has become the top revenue-generating protocol on Polygon. Olas is known for its composable stack that supports the development of autonomous services, providing a framework for building advanced autonomous agent technology.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed on Friday to formally ban event contracts that bet on the outcomes of political activities, with three out of five commissioners in favor of the proposal. The public will have 60 days to comment on the potential rules.Currently, prediction platforms such as PredictIt, Polymarket, Zeitgeist, and Kalshi offer users the ability to purchase contracts related to the outcomes of actual events, including elections and policy-making.