pattern

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the repeal of the "pattern day trader" rule, eliminating the requirement for day trading accounts to maintain a minimum balance of $25,000.This rule was originally intended to restrict frequent trading behavior and aimed to reduce investor risk. This adjustment is expected to affect the trading thresholds of various financial products, including cryptocurrencies and Web3-related assets, providing more flexibility for individual investors. The SEC's move marks a further relaxation of the U.S. financial regulatory environment, which may promote increased market activity.

Bitfinex released a report indicating that BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of $69.4 million and $114 million, ending a previous two-week trend of outflows. However, structurally, ARK Invest and Fidelity remain the main players, while the capital inflow for BlackRock's IBIT is limited, reflecting that institutional demand remains cautious.In addition, the funding rates in the derivatives market remained negative for most of the first quarter, indicating a continued dominance of short positions, with traders still inclined to pay for downside risk. Currently, there is a liquidation cluster below Bitcoin's price of about $66,500; if the price rises, it may trigger a short squeeze. However, overall, the market's confidence in this round of rebound remains insufficient.

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Ethereum has broken through a key technical support level and is currently showing a bearish flag pattern, with prices touching around $2004. This pattern is highly similar to this year's trend, and caution is advised as this pattern may reoccur.On the funding side, market trading volume remains sluggish, with insufficient participation willingness. Ethereum ETFs have continued to see net outflows since last year, with no recent improvement. On the fundamental side, the new cycle of DeFi has not yet started, and there are no obvious signs of recovery in on-chain activity. Recently, the minting volume of USDC has significantly slowed down and turned into net outflows. The improvement in liquidity within the ecosystem is still not stable, and structural demand support remains limited.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated on social media that the current price of Bitcoin has risen above its fair value, and the market structure has significantly changed compared to two weeks ago.Axel Adler Jr pointed out that two weeks ago, the market was in a bearish dominant phase, with the price of Bitcoin below its fair value, and the model he used was also in a "Bear Regime" state. As of now, this structure has completely reversed—prices have risen above fair value, and the bears' control over the market has come to an end.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, released a chart showing the "big banana" pattern, which represents a massive upward-curving channel on the long-term weekly chart (2014-2027).The "small banana" pattern is a smaller similar curve currently forming around $69,000 on the daily chart. The arrow clearly points upward, indicating higher targets.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that, in the context of the increasing prevalence of AI agents, cryptographic privacy technologies are crucial for protecting users' API call patterns and behavioral data. He pointed out that even with local AI agents, if external services can see all search or API call records, they can still infer the activities users are engaged in.Vitalik believes that a preliminary solution is to forward requests through a mixnet to hide the source of access, but service providers may demand the introduction of anti-abuse mechanisms and pay-per-call models due to facing DoS attacks. In reality, these payment methods often rely on credit cards or stablecoin systems that lack privacy protection. Therefore, he emphasized the need for cryptographic payment solutions with privacy attributes.He further noted that privacy protection needs to be considered from a full stack perspective, with the local AI agent layer being particularly critical. Vitalik likened it to the issue of healthy lifespan: if there are multiple damaging factors, addressing them one by one can yield cumulative benefits; similarly, measures to reduce the risk of data leakage can produce similar compound effects.

According to Cointelegraph, Glassnode analysts stated that Bitcoin whales are accumulating during the pullback, with the average outflow on exchanges reaching 3.2% on the 30th, similar to the pattern observed before the bull market began in the first half of 2022.

According to Cointelegraph, the price of Ethereum is facing further downside risks. The technical analysis shows that ETH has entered a typical "Inverse Cup and Handle" breakout phase, and if the pattern completes, the target price points to around $1665, indicating about a 25% downside from the current level. From the trend, ETH broke below the neckline of approximately $2960 in January, subsequently rebounding to test that level but facing resistance and falling back, while failing to regain the 20-day and 50-day EMA, both of which have turned into significant overhead pressure.Multiple technical signals resonate, reinforcing the expectation of continued short-term declines. On-chain data is also bearish. The extreme deviation range of MVRV indicates that ETH's potential downside target is around $1725, and further declines cannot be ruled out. Historically, ETH has often gradually bottomed out and started to rebound after touching or breaking below the lower MVRV boundary. On a macro level, market risk appetite for crypto assets is declining, with some traders concerned that a similar overall correction to past "four-year cycles" may occur in 2026; at the same time, expectations of a potential "AI bubble" burst are also prompting funds to avoid high-risk assets, exacerbating the downward pressure on ETH.

On-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that after Bitcoin reached a high of $97,000 on January 15, it quickly dropped to $73,000, swiftly breaking through the psychological support of $80,000. Under the dominance of panic sentiment, the trapped positions above $80,000 have net decreased by over 610,000 coins within 20 days, accounting for 88% of the total outflow, becoming the main source of selling pressure.However, on-chain URPD data reveals an important structural change: the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly weakened (only accounting for 9.7% of the reduction), indicating a clear reluctance to sell among long-term holders. Meanwhile, there has been strong buying in the $70,000-$80,000 range, with a net purchase of about 450,000 BTC, nearly double the absorption volume in the $80,000-$90,000 range, suggesting that some funds are "buying more as prices drop," using real money to layer their resistance.Murphy stated that the difference in this cycle compared to previous ones is that bulls are showing sustained and layered defense during the decline, with the accumulation zones gradually moving down rather than collapsing in a step-like manner. Although there are pessimistic predictions that "the bear bottom will see $50,000 or $30,000," once the bears compress the bulls' defense to the extreme, coupled with a lack of supply, the market may welcome a strong counterattack from the bulls.

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo's latest chart shows that Bitcoin's current long-term capital inflows have not yet experienced a large-scale influx of funds similar to previous bull market cycles, indicating that the market still follows the traditional four-year cycle rhythm.Although the BTC price has reached $91,000, the inflow trend remains in a moderate phase, similar to the "accumulation phase" at the beginning of 2020. Woo points out that unless there is a significant non-cyclical capital behavior in 2026, the claim of the "end of Bitcoin's four-year cycle" is not valid, and the current data still supports the cyclical upward logic.

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, this Friday will see approximately $2 billion in concentrated BTC and ETH options expiration, while the implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH remains at 43% and 61%, respectively, still within a recent low range. Over the past week, the 25-Delta Skew for BTC and ETH has shown a low-level repair and negative bias convergence trend, with the short-term (7D) improvement being the most significant, reflecting a noticeable cooling in short-term downside protection demand. Meanwhile, large trades buying BTC-300126-100000-C have accumulated approximately 3,000 BTC, with a net premium expenditure of about $3.2 million, indicating that mainstream funds are more inclined to position themselves with bullish structural strategies above key support levels.Gate has exclusively launched a convenient options trading tool—rolling sell options product, which assists users in automatically and continuously selling options within a set period. Users can customize Delta/Strike contract selection, expiration date settings (T+1/T+2/T+3), selling price execution methods, quantities, and optional take-profit and stop-loss parameters. The strategy will automatically execute opening positions daily and seamlessly transition to the next period after expiration, achieving fully automated operation. This feature supports clear risk indicator displays, margin estimates, expected trading paths, and other auxiliary information to help users manage strategy execution more intuitively.

Miller Value Partners Chief Investment Officer Bill Miller IV stated that the current technical formation of Bitcoin is improving, and the price trend "looks ready to take off again." In an interview with CNBC, he pointed out that technically, Bitcoin may break through previous highs, linking this judgment to changes in the U.S. regulatory environment and Wall Street's ongoing push for on-chain initiatives.Miller IV mentioned the remarks by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins about the gradual migration of capital markets to on-chain, as well as traditional financial institutions, including JPMorgan, continuously building on-chain infrastructure. He also noted that Bitcoin's price had experienced periodic pullbacks and underperformed gold, which is not unusual; considering its volatility, it should be observed from a longer-term price cycle perspective. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin's current price is approximately $93,750, down from last year's historical high but still showing some gains since 2026.

On the first trading day of 2026, the RMB against the USD continued its appreciation trend. Today, the RMB against the USD reached a maximum of 6.977 during the trading session, once again hitting a new high since mid-May 2023. At 16:30, the closing price of the RMB against the USD was reported at 6.9806, an increase of 84 basis points from the previous trading day, marking a new high since May 17, 2023.Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, expects that in January, supported by seasonal demand for foreign exchange settlement, the RMB may still have room for appreciation. However, the RMB against the USD midpoint has deviated towards depreciation compared to the closing price of the spot exchange rate, which may indicate a certain pro-cyclical behavior in the foreign exchange market recently.Overall, under the policy tone of regulatory authorities to maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level and to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, although the RMB exchange rate may still operate on the strong side in January, it is expected that there will not be a significant appreciation, and it may fluctuate bidirectionally in the range of 6.9-7 for most of the time, Wen Bin pointed out.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that during the last cycle, Ethereum attracted incremental funds due to expectations of expansion in the smart contract platform ecosystem and the narrative of "programmable money," driving prices up rapidly from 2020 to 2021; at the peak of sentiment in 2021, the market once had expectations of reaching $10,000. However, the trend did not continue upward.After retreating from its high, Ethereum entered a long-term consolidation phase, generally moving within a large triangular consolidation range. Over the past few years, the price has primarily fluctuated within this range, with no significant trend. Structurally, the price has attempted to break out of the range twice (once downward and once upward), but neither attempt was sustained, and it quickly returned to the range. Until a direction is confirmed, the market will remain primarily in a state of fluctuation. The current triangular formation is clearly converging, with the price's operating space continuously compressing, and the structure is approaching its conclusion.As this long-term consolidation gradually comes to an end, 2026 may become a key window for Ethereum to complete its directional choice and enter the next phase of movement.

glassnode published this week's market analysis stating that the market continues to fluctuate within a fragile and time-sensitive structure, influenced by significant supply, rising realized losses, and persistently weakening demand. Prices were blocked around $93,000 and subsequently fell back to $85,600, reflecting the dense supply accumulated in the $93,000 to $120,000 range, with previous strong buyers continuously suppressing the price rebound.As long as the price remains below the 0.75 percentile (approximately $95,000) and fails to return to the short-term holding cost benchmark of $101,500, the upside potential may be limited. Despite the pressure, patient demand has so far kept the real market average around $81,300, preventing further price declines. Spot demand remains selectively strong, corporate capital flows are intermittent, and futures positions continue to reduce risk rather than rebuild confidence.The options market has reinforced this range-bound pattern, with near-month contract volatility narrowing, and while downside risks remain, they are relatively stable, with expiration-driven positions limiting price movements until late December. In summary, Bitcoin is currently caught between structural support around $81,000 and ongoing selling pressure above. For a substantial shift to occur, either sellers need to exhaust all selling above $95,000, or new liquidity needs to flow in to absorb supply and reclaim the critical cost basis level.

Matrixport published a daily analysis indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a consolidation trend, with prices fluctuating around $88,528. Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in January, and recent liquidity injections have released some dovish signals, the overall policy language remains neutral, making it difficult for institutional investors to make significant allocation adjustments in the short term.Independent analyst Markus Thielen pointed out that as the Christmas holiday approaches, Bitcoin's implied volatility is likely to decline, with institutional funds tending to be cautious. Additionally, the current cycle shows weak retail participation, limiting the market's recovery potential. It is worth noting that since October 10, Bitcoin has been in an overall downward structure, but there may be a chance for a phase reversal in January. Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for clearer directional signals.

Bernstein, a Wall Street firm, pointed out in its latest analysis report: "Given the recent market adjustments, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern (i.e., peaks occurring every four years) and is currently entering an extended bull market cycle, with more resilient institutional buying funds offsetting any retail panic selling. Although Bitcoin has retraced about 30%, we have observed that the outflow of funds through ETFs is less than 5%.Accordingly, we have adjusted our Bitcoin target price for the end of 2026 to $150,000, and we expect this cycle's peak to potentially reach $200,000 in 2027. Our long-term (up to 2033) target price expectation for Bitcoin remains at approximately $1,000,000."