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XLM $0.1734 -0.82%
ZEC $356.48 +3.35%
BTC $77,542.13 -0.36%
ETH $2,316.66 +0.24%
BNB $636.87 +0.38%
XRP $1.43 +0.05%
SOL $86.39 +0.86%
TRX $0.3237 -1.15%
DOGE $0.0983 +0.89%
ADA $0.2521 +1.20%
BCH $455.19 -0.30%
LINK $9.43 +1.51%
HYPE $41.22 +0.20%
AAVE $94.86 +1.57%
SUI $0.9510 +0.63%
XLM $0.1734 -0.82%
ZEC $356.48 +3.35%

pause

Analysis: Affected by rising oil prices and the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, risk assets such as Bitcoin are under pressure

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $70,000, Ethereum has dropped to $2,160, and the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure. On the macro level, two major negative factors are overlapping. First, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cut cycle, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on risk assets. Second, after Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Gulf, with Brent crude oil rising to $114, Oman crude rising to $150, and European natural gas futures soaring about 25% to above $78 per megawatt-hour.In terms of derivatives, nearly $600 million in leveraged contract positions were forcibly liquidated on crypto platforms in the past 24 hours, with long positions being the majority, indicating that the overnight drop caught many long holders off guard. The total market's futures open interest decreased by 5.6% to $10.69 billion, with Ethereum futures open interest dropping by 9%. The funding rates for mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL have turned negative, with short-selling demand rising. The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for Bitcoin has increased by over 5% to 58.36%, ending the previous week's downward trend, while the skew for Bitcoin and Ethereum put options on Deribit has strengthened simultaneously, raising concerns about market downturns.

Analysis: The market expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts this week, and dovish or hawkish signals from Powell may affect Bitcoin's trend

According to CoinDesk, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this Wednesday.The key focus of this meeting is the statement from Fed Chairman Powell during the post-meeting press conference, as his remarks may provide directional guidance for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The core concern for the market is whether this pause in rate cuts will be interpreted as a "hawkish pause" or a "dovish pause." If Powell emphasizes inflation risks, it could dampen rate cut expectations and put pressure on risk assets; conversely, if he suggests that the pause in rate cuts is temporary and opens the door for resuming cuts in the coming months, it could boost risk assets like Bitcoin.Additionally, if officials appointed by Trump cast dissenting votes on the decision to maintain interest rates, it could strengthen market expectations for future easing policies. Powell's explanation for the decision to maintain rates may provide support for the dollar, thereby putting pressure on Bitcoin priced in dollars. He may also be asked about the Trump administration's recent housing affordability measures (which could raise short-term inflation), the judicial investigations targeting him personally, and the bond market volatility triggered by Japan, as these statements could exacerbate market fluctuations.

Saga paused its on-chain operations after losing $7 million in an attack, and the stablecoin depegged to $0.75

Layer-1 blockchain protocol Saga has urgently paused its Ethereum-compatible Saga EVM chainlet after experiencing an attack that resulted in a loss of approximately $7 million. The attack led to unauthorized funds being cross-chain transferred and exchanged for ETH, causing its dollar-pegged stablecoin, Saga Dollar, to de-peg, with the price dropping to as low as $0.75. The Saga team stated that the chain was paused at block height 6,593,800.Preliminary investigations indicate that the incident involved a series of contract deployments, cross-chain operations, and liquidity withdrawals, but there was no consensus failure, validator compromise, or private key leakage; the overall structure of the Saga mainnet remains secure. The impact was not limited to Saga Dollar; its stablecoins Colt and Mustang were also affected. The team has identified the addresses involved in the attack and is working with exchanges and cross-chain bridges to blacklist these addresses. The chain will remain paused until a complete security audit and post-mortem analysis are published.On-chain data shows that Saga's TVL plummeted from approximately $37 million to $16 million within 24 hours, a decrease of about 55%. Some security researchers speculate that the attack may be related to the "infinite minting" of stablecoins using cross-chain mechanisms, while others believe that the possibility of private key leakage cannot be ruled out, but the officials have not yet confirmed the specific attack vector.
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