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Vitalik posted on the X platform, stating that AI 2040 and its critics have incompatible worldviews regarding the speed and significance of AI progress. AI 2040 believes that unless strong measures are taken to completely prevent it, some form of superintelligence will emerge in various scenarios by 2040; critics argue that AI 2040 underestimates human coordination capabilities and threatens freedom, but do not view ASI itself as a risk of power concentration.He believes that if he were convinced that the current form of AI is just an ordinary technology, he would be closer to the critics' camp; if he were convinced that superintelligence would inevitably arrive by 2030, he would be closer to the AI 2040 camp. At the same time, due to significant uncertainty, he remains open to the idea of slowing down or pausing, and feels uncomfortable with the stance proposed by some large AI companies and intellectuals that "open source is detrimental, and the ideal outcome is to maintain global control dominance."Vitalik stated that an important reason he supports the d/acc platform is that directions such as formal verification, cryptography, secure and open hardware, pandemic resilience, defensive biotechnology, food and basic resource security, public cognitive systems, and non-concentrated power physical security are worth promoting under both worldviews. He also mentioned that the 2040 plan has increasingly supported open source and incorporated the idea of "mutual assured destruction of computational power," which is an improvement compared to allowing a few participants to selectively deprive their identified subjects of rights.There is no way to avoid trade-offs regarding whether to slow down or pause, and Vitalik believes that trigger conditions can be preset, allowing for a more open attitude towards slowing down or pausing when sufficient conditions are met within a specific timeframe.He also stated that if he were Elon Musk or Zuck, he would significantly transform Twitter into a platform that helps identify and facilitate such large win-win agreements, encouraging more people to participate in discussions, but he thinks this might also be naive. Currently, he does not see any non-naive ASI transition response plans, so he tends to show some tolerance towards those who are trying.

Etherlink posted on platform X that the Etherlink EVM Bridge has become a target of a security attack. As a precaution, all transfers have been suspended to protect user funds while the issue is being investigated. No funds have been lost.The team is working closely with LayerZero, Asymmetric Research, and Zeeve to investigate the issue and ensure that the attack attempts are fully mitigated. A timeline for restoring services has not yet been determined.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may see an increase. Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, U.S. stocks have risen by 9%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 1% and gold has dropped by 20%. Although significant spending related to AI has supported the stock market, Bitcoin and gold have underperformed, partly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to combat inflation. Grayscale disagrees with this expectation, believing that the basic scenario is that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes. If correct, Bitcoin's price may catch up with stock performance.Zach Pandl noted that since the start of the Iran war, the one-year Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have risen by about 60 basis points, with about half of the Federal Reserve officials believing that a rate hike in 2026 may be appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised interest rates. As a non-interest-bearing monetary asset, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and an increase in real interest rates will raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand.Bitcoin has a dual purpose in a portfolio: on one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can serve as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, it is a public chain asset that can provide exposure to the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency industry. Therefore, Bitcoin's function in a portfolio is similar but not entirely equivalent to that of gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl stated that if the likelihood of interest rate hikes decreases, aligning with Grayscale's basic scenario, Bitcoin may catch up with stock performance.

The market has currently priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will extend the pause on interest rate hikes, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.

Sky (formerly MakerDAO) posted on the X platform stating that it has currently suspended the omnichain fungible token (Omnichain Fungible Token) cross-chain bridging function for USDS. It will further assess the impact of the rsETH-related security incident while emphasizing that its protocol itself and the USDS contract have not been affected temporarily. USDS remains fully collateralized as designed by the protocol and can be verified on-chain at any time.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagel said that the United States has achieved a decisive military victory in Iran, and Iran had begged for this ceasefire agreement. The U.S. launched 800 airstrikes on Tuesday night, destroying Iran's defense industrial base. Iran can no longer manufacture missiles, rockets, and drones.The ceasefire means that Iran will never have nuclear weapons. The U.S. military objectives in Iran have been achieved, and the ceasefire is merely a pause; the coalition is still ready to resume operations at any time. We hope Iran chooses lasting peace. All parties have reached a consensus that the Strait of Hormuz is now open. Iran will allow ships to pass, and warships "will transit" the Strait of Hormuz. The effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement will take some time.

According to Israeli media, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel supports Trump's decision to pause attacks on Iran for two weeks, but the ceasefire does not include actions in Lebanon.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $70,000, Ethereum has dropped to $2,160, and the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure. On the macro level, two major negative factors are overlapping. First, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cut cycle, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on risk assets. Second, after Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Gulf, with Brent crude oil rising to $114, Oman crude rising to $150, and European natural gas futures soaring about 25% to above $78 per megawatt-hour.In terms of derivatives, nearly $600 million in leveraged contract positions were forcibly liquidated on crypto platforms in the past 24 hours, with long positions being the majority, indicating that the overnight drop caught many long holders off guard. The total market's futures open interest decreased by 5.6% to $10.69 billion, with Ethereum futures open interest dropping by 9%. The funding rates for mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL have turned negative, with short-selling demand rising. The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for Bitcoin has increased by over 5% to 58.36%, ending the previous week's downward trend, while the skew for Bitcoin and Ethereum put options on Deribit has strengthened simultaneously, raising concerns about market downturns.

The DeFi protocol Neutrl announced on platform X that its frontend is suspected to have been attacked, and the team is conducting an urgent investigation. For security reasons, the official advises users not to interact with the website until further updates are released.At the same time, Neutrl reminds users to promptly go to Revoke.cash to revoke Permit2 authorizations for the relevant addresses, and also reminds users to check and revoke authorizations for other suspicious addresses to reduce potential asset risks.

The cryptocurrency market has experienced one of its strongest single-day rebounds in recent times, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana collectively rising, driving the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies up by approximately $170 billion, bringing the total market cap close to $2.5 trillion.Market data shows that Bitcoin briefly broke the $70,000 mark, Ethereum rose over 13%, and Solana increased by more than 15%. This round of rebound ended the continuous correction trend since the peak last October. Market analysts believe that this surge is related to the recent insider trading lawsuit against the market maker Jane Street. Some commentators in the crypto market pointed out that there had been a phenomenon of suspected concentrated selling of Bitcoin every day at 10 AM Eastern Time over the past few months, and this pattern seemed to suddenly stop after the lawsuit news was announced.However, there is currently no public evidence that Jane Street has indeed engaged in systematic selling of Bitcoin at fixed times. Nevertheless, the market generally believes that the expectation of reduced potential selling pressure has boosted investor sentiment in the short term.

According to Jinshi, at 3 AM Beijing time tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its first interest rate decision of 2026, and a pause in rate cuts has become almost certain. As the Federal Reserve faces political challenges, the independence of the central bank, the selection of a new chairperson, and Powell's future may become the focus. Gold prices have reached a new high, the dollar index has fallen to a four-year low, and the market may experience another huge wave.

According to Jin Shi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that Federal Reserve officials expect to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time, following three consecutive rate cuts since last September.The conditions for the Fed to initiate rate cuts again depend on a collapse in the labor market or inflation significantly retreating to the target level of 2%. Despite facing political pressure, most officials believe that rate cuts may still be possible later this year, but there is disagreement on when the data will support such cuts.

According to Jinshi News, Huatai Securities' research report states that at 2 a.m. Beijing time on January 29 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve will announce the decision from the January monetary policy meeting. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will likely pause interest rate cuts and maintain the forward guidance for December 2025, with little new information. Attention will be on Powell's statements regarding the interest rate path, the independence of the Fed, and whether he will remain as a governor.

According to CoinDesk, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this Wednesday.The key focus of this meeting is the statement from Fed Chairman Powell during the post-meeting press conference, as his remarks may provide directional guidance for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The core concern for the market is whether this pause in rate cuts will be interpreted as a "hawkish pause" or a "dovish pause." If Powell emphasizes inflation risks, it could dampen rate cut expectations and put pressure on risk assets; conversely, if he suggests that the pause in rate cuts is temporary and opens the door for resuming cuts in the coming months, it could boost risk assets like Bitcoin.Additionally, if officials appointed by Trump cast dissenting votes on the decision to maintain interest rates, it could strengthen market expectations for future easing policies. Powell's explanation for the decision to maintain rates may provide support for the dollar, thereby putting pressure on Bitcoin priced in dollars. He may also be asked about the Trump administration's recent housing affordability measures (which could raise short-term inflation), the judicial investigations targeting him personally, and the bond market volatility triggered by Japan, as these statements could exacerbate market fluctuations.

Layer-1 blockchain protocol Saga has urgently paused its Ethereum-compatible Saga EVM chainlet after experiencing an attack that resulted in a loss of approximately $7 million. The attack led to unauthorized funds being cross-chain transferred and exchanged for ETH, causing its dollar-pegged stablecoin, Saga Dollar, to de-peg, with the price dropping to as low as $0.75. The Saga team stated that the chain was paused at block height 6,593,800.Preliminary investigations indicate that the incident involved a series of contract deployments, cross-chain operations, and liquidity withdrawals, but there was no consensus failure, validator compromise, or private key leakage; the overall structure of the Saga mainnet remains secure. The impact was not limited to Saga Dollar; its stablecoins Colt and Mustang were also affected. The team has identified the addresses involved in the attack and is working with exchanges and cross-chain bridges to blacklist these addresses. The chain will remain paused until a complete security audit and post-mortem analysis are published.On-chain data shows that Saga's TVL plummeted from approximately $37 million to $16 million within 24 hours, a decrease of about 55%. Some security researchers speculate that the attack may be related to the "infinite minting" of stablecoins using cross-chain mechanisms, while others believe that the possibility of private key leakage cannot be ruled out, but the officials have not yet confirmed the specific attack vector.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that given the current risks, the Federal Reserve should not signal a pause in the interest rate cut cycle.

According to Jinshi News, Brian Martin, head of G3 economies research at ANZ Bank, stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in January, but the view that the rate cut cycle will be paused for a long time lacks reasonable basis. He expects the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in March and another 25 basis points in June, bringing the target rate down to 3%-3.25% by mid-year. Martin pointed out that U.S. inflation will gradually ease by 2026.

U.S. Senator and senior Democratic member of the Senate Banking Committee Elizabeth Warren has called for a pause on the application for a national trust bank charter related to World Liberty Trust Co. until Donald Trump divests his family's holdings in the related digital asset business.Reports indicate that Warren has written to Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Director Jonathan Gould, requesting a delay in the application process while Trump still holds relevant interests. She pointed out that if the application is approved, the rules set by regulators could directly impact the profitability of the president's related businesses, creating a serious conflict of interest.Warren stated that Congress failed to address such issues when passing the GENIUS Act, and therefore the Senate has a responsibility to confront these conflicts while reviewing legislation on cryptocurrency market structure. Currently, the Senate Banking Committee is set to hold hearings on related bills, but the latest leaked draft has not included the government ethics provisions previously requested by Democrats.

According to Jinshi, the unemployment rate in the United States has decreased, and traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts.