quant

The advisory committee of cryptographic experts led by Coinbase has released a report stating that Bitcoin should immediately begin preparing for potential quantum computing attacks. However, the committee did not take a clear stance on whether to freeze the millions of Bitcoins that could potentially be stolen by quantum computing in the future.It is reported that the committee members include several leading experts, such as Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, who believe that the current focus of the debate is not on how to introduce quantum-resistant signature technology, but rather on how to handle the Bitcoins that have not been migrated for a long time. One viewpoint calls for setting a deadline, after which the existing ECDSA and Schnorr signature schemes for Bitcoin will cease to be supported, and un-migrated assets will be frozen to prevent future quantum attackers from acquiring large amounts of BTC and impacting the market. Another viewpoint argues that this amounts to asset confiscation, contradicting Bitcoin's core principles of "immutability and user complete control of assets," and could set a precedent for freezing assets in the future due to regulatory pressure.The Coinbase advisory committee pointed out that the aforementioned proposals are not mutually exclusive and can be combined, but it refused to take a position on the issue of "whether to freeze legacy BTC," believing that the final decision should be governed by the Bitcoin community. At the same time, it emphasized two points: first, the technical development of quantum-resistant signature migration should be initiated immediately and should not wait for the governance debate to conclude; second, it is necessary to clearly communicate risk information to users to avoid long-term uncertainty affecting the Bitcoin ecosystem.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant inflow into exchanges, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a key reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May peak.Data shows that the 30-day net exchange flow indicator for Bitcoin has turned significantly positive, currently at about +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow status of about -85,000 to -115,000 BTC in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. This indicator briefly rose to about +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains in negative territory, currently at about -105 million USD. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +40 million to +90 million USD, representing strong buying liquidity in the market; however, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to about -150 million to -170 million USD in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."

According to Decrypt, the Coinbase Quantum Advisory Board released a report calling for blockchain developers to immediately begin preparations for quantum migration, warning that unresolved issues with abandoned and vulnerable tokens could become one of the biggest challenges for Bitcoin.The report estimates that approximately 7 million Bitcoins are vulnerable to future quantum attacks due to public key exposure and address reuse. Although there are currently no quantum computers capable of breaking blockchain encryption, the likelihood of relevant quantum computers emerging as early as 2030 is high.The report proposes three handling options for tokens that have not migrated to quantum-safe addresses: permanently freeze or destroy them after a set deadline; take no action and let users decide; or adopt a compromise measure, such as limiting the number of vulnerable tokens that can be moved per block, or allowing users to pre-commit to migration.The Ethereum Foundation has formed a team to coordinate the post-quantum security transition, and Vitalik Buterin developed a quantum upgrade roadmap in February. The Stellar Development Foundation announced a roadmap for user migration to quantum-safe encryption on Tuesday.

According to CoinDesk, the Stellar Development Foundation has announced a quantum security plan to migrate all XLM accounts to a quantum-resistant signature scheme by the end of 2027, while keeping existing addresses and on-chain transaction history unchanged.The foundation stated that this migration will be completed through protocol layer updates to address the potential cracking risks posed by future quantum computing to existing cryptographic signature algorithms, and to ensure that user accounts do not need to change addresses or rebuild transaction records during the migration process.

CryptoQuant released the latest report indicating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market, currently only 9% higher than the realized price of $53,600, and from a valuation perspective, it is close to the bottom range of previous bear markets. However, CryptoQuant pointed out that the current bottom has not yet been confirmed. Last week, total Bitcoin demand dropped to negative 652,000 BTC, marking the largest contraction since January 2022; the one-year apparent spot demand growth rate also turned negative, falling to its weakest level since February 2024.Meanwhile, ETF purchase demand experienced the fastest contraction since its launch in January 2024, with the 30-day ETF demand growth rate hitting a historical low. The report also stated that realized losses in the past 30 days amounted to 187,000 BTC, which has not yet reached the level of historic sell-off clearance.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's post on the X platform, the open interest in Ethereum perpetual contracts on Binance (measured in ETH) has reached an all-time high, nearing 3.7 million ETH. At the same time, Binance's share of the total open interest in Ethereum has risen to over 44%. This data comes after ETH's current price has dropped about 67% from its historical peak and entered an extremely oversold area.Darkfost stated that despite the rising market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the continued deterioration of the economic outlook, some traders are choosing to increase their risk exposure in the derivatives market. The average active buyer/seller ratio on Binance has risen from 0.95 to 1, indicating that after months of seller dominance, the flow of funds is rebalancing, and more investors are willing to take on risk to rebuild long positions.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's realized market cap 30-day change rate has dropped to -1.1%, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflow has reached this level. From a peak of approximately $1.087 trillion in mid-May, the realized market cap has decreased by about $12 billion to $1.075 trillion. The contraction rate has noticeably accelerated: on June 1, this metric was -0.15%, and by June 8, it had fallen to -1.1%. During the same period, the BTC price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, a decline of 23%. The current outflow rate is now comparable to the beginning of the capitulation in March, when this metric reached -2.4%, indicating there is still room for deterioration.The aSOPR 30-day moving average has been below 1 for 13 consecutive days since it fell below 1 on May 28, currently at 0.987, indicating an average loss of about 1.3% per transaction. The long-term aSOPR below 1 is a classic sign of weak hands being flushed out, with sellers still dominating until it rises back to 1. The combination of these two indicators defines the capitulation phase: capital is flowing out of the network, driven by loss sales.

Gate released the Private Wealth Management Report for May 2026. The crypto market continued its adjustment trend in May, influenced by rising geopolitical uncertainties and declining risk appetite. BTC fell approximately 2.9% during the month, while ETH dropped over 11%, with overall performance weaker than traditional risk assets during the same period. Against the backdrop of increased market volatility, Gate's private wealth quantitative strategies demonstrated strong resilience. Data shows that the net value of quantitative funds overall rebounded in May, with 90% of strategies recording positive returns. Among them, the "Interstellar Hedge (USDT)" cumulative return rate increased to 18.6%, with all 23 cycles within the statistical range achieving profitability, maintaining a win rate of 100%. Meanwhile, the drawdown levels of the USDT and BTC strategies continued to remain low, with overall risk control performance better than the market benchmark.At the same time, AI-related investments continued to be an important driver of growth. On the macro level, inflation remains a key variable affecting market expectations, with the market generally expecting the June FOMC meeting to maintain the current interest rate level. On the other hand, as the supporting details of the GENIUS Act gradually take effect, the regulatory framework for stablecoins is transitioning from policy framework to actual implementation, bringing more certainty to the digital asset industry.

American venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper posted on the X platform that he believes the banking system will be breached before quantum computing has the capability to break blockchain. Draper stated that Bitcoin is safer than the dollars in bank accounts. Even if there are issues with blockchain, full node operators can roll back to the last secure block, and the network can continue to operate, whereas dollars and banks do not have this option. He predicts that as retailers begin to accept Bitcoin, it will eventually completely replace the dollar.

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report indicating that the main driver of Bitcoin's price weakness in 2026 is a slowdown in capital flows, rather than the market's concerns about the threat of quantum computing.The report shows that this year, Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs attracted approximately $12 billion in inflows, a significant decrease from $60 billion in 2025; ETFs recorded about $2.6 billion in net outflows based on an asset scale of $75 billion, with new demand primarily coming from corporate buyers represented by Strategy (MSTR). Bernstein analysts attribute the slowdown in funds to a large influx of retail investors into AI-related assets, with this year's strongest performance in the crypto market concentrated in tokenized stocks and commodities.Nevertheless, analysts believe that the scale of ETF outflows remains moderate, and the structure of Bitcoin investors has shifted from being dominated by retail investors to a more diverse group including ETFs, corporate treasuries, wealth management platforms, pension funds, and sovereign investors, resulting in a healthier market structure, with the long-term value storage logic remaining intact.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV is currently 1.1, which is close to the historically significant undervaluation range marking major market bottoms.If the price further dips to the low of $50,000, the MVRV may reach the fully undervalued level of 1. Historical data shows that this level appeared at the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time became the starting point for a strong medium to long-term rebound.

According to CoinDesk, NYDIG's Global Research Director Greg Cipolaro stated that the decline in Bitcoin does not have a single cause, but is due to multiple overlapping factors. The AI sector continues to siphon funds from the crypto market, and investors are preparing for large tech IPOs such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, with institutions needing to raise cash or reduce existing positions.The U.S. Treasury Secretary claimed to have seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian-related crypto assets, raising concerns about government intervention in the digital asset market. Quantum computing threats have once again become a focal point, and Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, while negligible on the supply side, has a greater psychological impact.Cipolaro pointed out that on-chain indicators show that several metrics are approaching historical bottom levels, with the MVRV ratio dropping to 1.2 and the proportion of profitable supply recently falling below 50%. However, the current 53% drawdown is far lower than the previous cycle's levels of 75%-90%, and it has only been 242 days since the peak. This suggests that either institutions have fundamentally changed Bitcoin's cyclical behavior, or the market has not yet truly entered a capitulation phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that Bitcoin is once again testing a low point of around $62,000, while the current 7-day net realized losses have reached approximately $7 billion, higher than the levels during the low point in February this year, but still below the peak loss of about $14 billion during the winter market panic.Currently, the Bitcoin price has clearly fallen below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at around $76,000. If it continues to decline, the main support left is the average realized price across the network at about $54,000, as well as the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) at around $49,000. These two areas corresponded to the full capitulation phase and the formation of the cycle bottom in historical cycles.However, as long as Bitcoin remains above $54,000, the market will not enter a full capitulation phase; if it falls below and continues to operate below the market low point from February this year, it may further test the final defense line near $54,000 in this round.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), institutions and whales continue to increase their holdings of HYPE: Galaxy Digital withdrew 179,000 HYPE (approximately $12.62 million) from Coinbase in the past 7 hours; meanwhile, the new wallet address 0x6436 withdrew 135,824 HYPE (approximately $9.73 million) again 8 hours ago, bringing the total withdrawal amount over the past two days to 399,730 HYPE (approximately $28.92 million).

According to The Defiant, Ethereum researchers Thomas Coratger, Justin Drake, and others released a proposal on June 1 at the Ethereum research forum, planning to establish a dedicated XMSS public key registry as the first concrete protocol upgrade for Ethereum's migration to post-quantum cryptography.This registry allows approximately 1 million validators to pre-register quantum-safe XMSS keys before the full switch to the BLS signature system, serving as an important "preheating phase" to reduce the impact of the subsequent switch on network stability. This proposal has been included in the Ethereum Foundation's protocol team's Strawmap roadmap, marking the first protocol fork on that roadmap.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "140-159" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 90.9% an hour ago to the current 71.7% (a fluctuation of 19.2%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The Tether AI research team announced the open-source release of the TurboQuant production version and its integration into the QVAC SDK 0.12.0.TurboQuant is based on a memory compression algorithm from Google Research, which can compress the KV cache of AI runtime by up to 5 times while maintaining output quality close to that of uncompressed models.This means that laptops, mobile phones, and edge devices can handle longer conversations, larger files, and more complex tasks without the need to upload data to the cloud.This open-source release includes a complete quantization pipeline, mainstream inference framework adapters, and developer documentation, aimed at developers and startups deploying AI on consumer-grade hardware, edge devices, and peer-to-peer networks.

The Huobi HTX VIP private class "AI + Trading from Theory to Practice" was held in Shanghai, where early Bitcoin miner and pyra.io CTO Tian Jia shared the development of quantum computing and the impact of AI on trading.He believes that the average time it takes to threaten "Bitcoin addresses with exposed public keys" is 7 to 8 years, with a range of 5 to 15 years. The required number of logical qubits is between 1200 and 2400, while the number of physical qubits is less than 500,000. Additionally, Bitcoin also has defensive measures; it can migrate to PQC, or post-quantum cryptography, although there are significant challenges, such as the locking issue of Satoshi's coin.

Circle released a quantum security white paper, proposing a phased upgrade plan covering Arc, USDC, smart contracts, and the validator system to address potential security risks posed by future quantum computing.