shutdown

QCP Capital stated in an official channel that, on a macro level, the clouds of a government shutdown in the U.S. have dissipated, but the key takeaway is that fiscal standoffs may quickly resurface. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, which means another deadline risk still exists. Additionally, after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone approaching the "USS Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, crude oil prices are rebuilding a moderate geopolitical risk premium, but news on the diplomatic front continues to limit its upside potential.Domestically in the U.S., the political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve is heating up again. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which reintroduces uncertainty. If investors begin to bet on the increased likelihood of larger rate cuts later this year, this could marginally support risk assets and weaken the dollar, but it will also shift attention to the balance sheet. Warsh has indicated a preference for a quicker reduction of the balance sheet, which will directly impact the underlying liquidity mechanisms of the repo market.A disturbing reminder is that pressure may suddenly emerge when reserves are short at critical junctures. The options market has reinforced cautious signals. Even amidst spot rebounds, short-term (front-end) implied volatility still has buying support, and at-the-money option volatility remains elevated, with the term structure trending towards a slight spot premium, indicating that the market is still paying a premium for the risk of recent price gaps. The downward skew has steepened sharply, and butterfly spread options remain expensive, reflecting that demand is concentrated on convexity protection against a collapse.From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a key turning point. If it can be held and positions are rebuilt with funding rates returning to normal, this level seems to be a reasonable place to increase risk exposure. If it fails to hold, market sentiment may quickly shift to a defensive stance.

The founder of Aave, Stani.eth, announced the gradual shutdown of the Family iOS wallet, but it will continue to support the Aave App as infrastructure. Aave Labs will no longer use the Avara umbrella brand, which included the Family brand and the Lens brand, while Lens is now managed by Mask.Aave plans to concentrate resources on enhancing the Aave brand awareness to refocus on its DeFi business.

According to Caixin, U.S. President Trump signed a government funding bill in the Oval Office on February 3, ending part of the government "shutdown." Earlier that day, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a funding bill for several federal departments for the remainder of the fiscal year, resolving the deadlock that began with the partial government "shutdown" on January 31.The bill will provide funding for several federal departments until September 30, the end of the fiscal year, and will provide two weeks of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which has recently faced controversy and protests due to immigration enforcement actions, allowing all parties to continue negotiations on improving the department's operations.

Cobo & F2pool co-founder DiscusFish posted on X platform that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 15% this week. When the price of Bitcoin reaches $75,000, a mining machine with a power of 23.3 W/T will reach the breakeven point (i.e., shutdown price).

According to Antpool data, based on the current Bitcoin mining difficulty and an electricity price of $0.08 per kWh, mining machines including Antminer S19 XP+ Hyd, Bitmain M60S, and Avalon A1466I have reached the shutdown coin price. The Antminer S21 series (S21, S21+, S21 Hyd.) is close to the shutdown coin price, ranging from approximately $69,000 to $74,000.In addition, high-performance mining machines such as Antminer U3S23H and Antminer S23 Hyd have a shutdown coin price above $44,000.

According to Jin Shi citing NBC News, U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that he is confident of securing enough votes to end part of the government shutdown by at least Tuesday.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on the X platform that due to funding expiration and the partial shutdown of the U.S. government, the SEC is currently operating according to the agency's plan during the shutdown. Starting from January 31, 2026, until further notice, only a very small number of staff will continue to work.

As the U.S. government enters a partial shutdown due to the failure to pass the budget proposal before the deadline, sentiment in the crypto market has turned cautious, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices under pressure, and BTC just dipping below $83,000. Although the Senate has passed a temporary funding measure, the House of Representatives will need to vote after reconvening on Monday, resulting in a technical shutdown over the weekend. Traders have already begun to adopt defensive strategies ahead of the House vote next Monday.Analysts believe that the shutdown itself has limited economic impact, but combined with low liquidity over the weekend and intense political news, it may increase the short-term volatility risk in the crypto market.

According to CoinDesk, as the U.S. Congress failed to complete the full legislative process for the funding bill, the U.S. government is expected to enter a short-term, partial shutdown starting Saturday Eastern Time. However, this event also highlights the issue of "definition precision" in prediction markets. The prediction contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding "whether the U.S. government will shut down" show differences due to varying definitions of triggering conditions. The relevant contracts on Polymarket indicate a shutdown probability of about 88%, while similar contracts on Kalshi have a probability as high as approximately 93%. This discrepancy may be because some contracts consider the formal announcement of a shutdown by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) as the basis for settlement, meaning that even a partial shutdown is regarded as valid. This event underscores the sensitivity of prediction markets to contract triggering conditions, official confirmation entities, and timelines in macro events, with the details of the contracts themselves becoming an important factor influencing the odds.

According to Jinshi Data, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a memorandum to department heads, instructing agencies whose funding will expire at midnight to begin preparations for a government shutdown. These agencies include the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of State, the Department of the Treasury, the Department of Labor, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Education, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Las Water stated, "Given that Congress clearly cannot complete its work before the funding deadline, the affected agencies should now implement an orderly shutdown plan. Employees should report to work on time, fulfill their next regular job responsibilities, and carry out orderly shutdown activities. The government will continue to work with Congress to address the recently raised issues and complete the appropriations for fiscal year 2026. We hope this shutdown will not last long."

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the government shutdown is likely to weigh on economic growth in the fourth quarter, but this impact will be reversed.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. government shutting down again before January 31 soared to 80% over the weekend, up from just 9% on January 24, and currently stands at 77%.Previous reports indicated that Senate Democrats would rather let most government agencies shut down than vote in favor of a funding proposal that includes immigration enforcement funding.

The decentralized custody startup Entropy, led by a16z, announced its shutdown and the return of remaining funds to investors.Tux Pacific, founder and CEO of Entropy, stated on the X platform that the decision was made after four years of product development, multiple business adjustments, and two rounds of layoffs. Entropy was positioned as an alternative to centralized crypto custody institutions, utilizing technologies such as multi-party computation, threshold cryptography, and trusted execution environments to provide users with cross-chain asset management and automated signing services.According to the crypto data platform RootData, the company completed a $25 million seed round financing led by a16z in 2022, with participation from Dragonfly, Variant, Coinbase Ventures, and others, raising a total of approximately $27 million. Pacific mentioned that after recent research, it was found that the business model could not support venture capital-level growth, leading to the decision to cease operations and return capital. This event also reflects the tightening survival environment for crypto startups since 2025.

According to Jinshi News, Jeff Schulze, the Director of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, stated that although investors will cheer for the December CPI report, viewing it as further evidence of cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve will remain in a wait-and-see mode due to the short time interval between the data and the government shutdown event, as well as the existing uncertainties. This report has positive implications for risk assets and increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve providing additional monetary policy support in 2026.

Due to the spread of protests within Iran and the rial's exchange rate falling to a historic low, the Iranian government has implemented a nationwide internet shutdown today, affecting approximately 7 million cryptocurrency users' ability to trade.Data from TRM Labs shows that from January to July 2025, the total cryptocurrency flow within Iran was about $3.7 billion. In the current shutdown environment, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley suggests using Bitcoin as a means of wealth storage. Currently feasible offline trading solutions include: Starlink satellite internet has been activated within the country, providing high-speed connectivity; the Blockstream satellite network supports broadcasting Bitcoin data globally. Additionally, the decentralized communication service Bitchat, based on a Bluetooth mesh network, has been downloaded over 1.4 million times since its release, allowing for the transmission of transaction data between mobile phones. The Darkwire project, developed by Cyb3r17, creates a mesh network using long-range radio technology to transmit Bitcoin transactions in a no-internet environment. Machankura, developed by South African developer Kgothatso Ngako, allows users to send and receive Bitcoin via telecom networks instead of the internet. Ultimately, these offline solutions still require connected devices to upload transactions for confirmation on the blockchain.

Scroll's official statement clarifies that the recent rumors about the closure of Scroll DAO stem from a misunderstanding of the governance structure reorganization announcement.The actual situation is that the DAO has not stopped; it is only undergoing governance structure adjustments. Governance is still functioning normally, and the Galileo upgrade proposal has been approved. Moving forward, community feedback will continue to be collected through the co-creation cycle. The complete governance plan for 2026 will be announced in January next year, and the current governance cycle will continue to progress before that.