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Placeholder Partner: The current market resembles an early bull market opportunity; long-term investors are advised to systematically accumulate tokens

Co-founder Chris Burniske stated that long-term investors should not repeatedly struggle with entering or exiting the market, but should systematically accumulate tokens over time, and not confuse long-term investing with short-term trading. He suggested using his most successful investment targets as a reference, calculating target holdings based on the total supply of network tokens.He gave an example that the total supply of ETH is about 120 million tokens. If one previously held 10 ETH, based on the network holding ratio, the total supply of SOL is about 636 million tokens, corresponding to about 53 tokens; the total supply of TIA is about 1.16 billion tokens, corresponding to about 97 tokens. If one wishes for the TIA network share to reach 10 times the original ETH holding share, approximately 970 TIA would be needed. For ZEC, since its supply is similar to BTC, the ideal BTC holding quantity can be used as a reference for accumulation targets.Regarding the current market, he noted that many crypto assets have fallen 20% to over 40% from their highs, while BTC has dropped less than 10%. He is more inclined to believe that BTC's previous relative resilience has led to significant adjustments in assets with lower risk appetite, making the current situation more like an opportunity in the early stages of a bull market rather than a warning signal of a bull market trap. He also reminded that one should consider the possibility of further price declines, suggesting to invest remaining cash in batches and determine the investment ratio based on the probability of local bottoms at different price levels; even if some preset price levels are not reached and cash remains, it can still be acceptable.

first_img Binance VIP Head: Traditional hedge funds are actively exploring arbitrage opportunities on cryptocurrency platforms

Catherine Chen, the head of VIP and institutional business at Binance, stated in an interview with The Block during Token2049 that traditional hedge funds, which previously took a wait-and-see approach, are now showing a stronger interest due to the emergence of arbitrage opportunities related to traditional financial instruments such as cash stocks and perpetual contracts on crypto platforms.She pointed out that the improvement in market depth, combined with 24/7 trading and weekend price discovery mechanisms, makes these opportunities more realistic. She also mentioned that when the same tools are offered on second- and third-tier platforms or in DeFi venues, liquidity often falls short of hedge funds' needs. However, she emphasized that this process is still in its early stages and does not expect a surge in capital inflows overnight, with the next 12 to 18 months being worth close attention.Similar changes are happening on the other side of the market. Chen indicated that their crypto-native clients are incorporating more tools linked to traditional financial products to build hybrid investment portfolios. The data she cited showed that the scale of Binance's cash stock assets has increased from about $800 million to $900 million to $1.4 billion, while the trading volume of traditional financial perpetual contracts has risen from about $20 billion to $30 billion per month when launched at the beginning of this year to about $400 billion every 30 days. She believes that tokenization and cross-asset trading are still in their early stages, and regulatory clarity will determine the ultimate integration of traditional and crypto trading more than the product offerings of a single platform.

Grayscale: The increase in Bitcoin's price is highly concentrated on a few trading days, and staying out also carries an opportunity cost

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past three years, Bitcoin's cumulative return rate was approximately 225%, while the Nasdaq index's return rate was 109%. However, Bitcoin's rise was not evenly distributed, with a few of the strongest trading days contributing significantly to long-term returns, increasing the difficulty for investors to time their entry.Data shows that if the five best trading days for Bitcoin are excluded, its three-year cumulative return rate would drop from 225% to 95%; excluding the best ten trading days, the return rate falls to 27%; and if the best fifteen trading days are missed, the three-year return would turn into a loss of 11%. In contrast, the return distribution of the Nasdaq is more balanced; after excluding the best fifteen trading days, the cumulative return rate drops from 109% to 21%.Grayscale indicated that during this period, less than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains that, when excluded, would reduce Bitcoin's cumulative return by more than half. For assets with high return and high volatility characteristics, staying out also carries an opportunity cost; since the best trading days are difficult to predict reliably, waiting for volatility to decrease or for market prospects to become clearer may mean that some price re-evaluations have already been completed.

Ansem: During a bull market, strong altcoins will continuously emerge, and one should keep looking for opportunities for excess returns

Cryptocurrency trader Ansem posted that frequently monitoring the market and judging price trends based on 15-minute candlesticks can easily lead to overtrading. Investors should manage their spot, perpetual contract, and high-risk on-chain trading accounts separately, and should not attempt to catch every local top and bottom, as this may harm long-term investment returns. Instead of frequent trading, it is better to study historical bull markets and observe how long upward trends typically last.The upward cycles of altcoins are usually faster, often outperforming the market for 4 to 6 months, after which new market leaders emerge, especially after a market capitalization growth of more than 10 times. However, there may be a few exceptions in this cycle: some altcoins may see significant revenue growth alongside price increases, thus their fundamentals may improve simultaneously.In past cycles, altcoins primarily peaked due to shifts in market attention and weakening momentum, but in this cycle, if some projects experience substantial changes in revenue and other data, institutional funds may continue to buy actively, and investors need to adjust their original judgments in a timely manner based on new information.In the last cycle, Bitcoin bottomed out in January 2023 and peaked in October 2025, with an upward trend lasting about 33 months. If this cycle bottomed out in July, it is currently only in the 4th month.It is believed that in a longer-term bull market, multiple "mini-bulls" led by specific altcoins will emerge, and investors need to identify these phase-strong assets and continuously reinvest profits into high-performing targets, allowing short-term winners to gradually transform into long-term investments.
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