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VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

Berkshire's net stock purchases in Q2 were approximately $20 billion, ending a 14-quarter net selling period, shifting from waiting to action

Berkshire Hathaway today released its Q2 2026 financial report, with the most market attention focused on the cash reserves dropping to $36.551 billion in the second quarter, down from about $39.74 billion in the first quarter. This marks the end of Berkshire's 14 consecutive quarters of net selling, turning into a significant net buying for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022.In the financial report, Berkshire's net stock purchases in the second quarter were nearly $20 billion, including about $10 billion in a private placement from Google's parent company Alphabet to support investments such as its AI data centers. Approximately $6.8 billion was spent to acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison, which was a complete acquisition and not entirely a public market stock transaction. About $4.5 billion was used to repurchase its own shares. After deducting the above major items, there remains about $3 billion of "unexplained" net purchases of public market equities, with specific stocks to be disclosed in the 13F filing around August 14. Currently, Alphabet officially enters Berkshire's top five holdings, alongside American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola, with the top five holdings accounting for about 66% of the stock portfolio.Buffett previously stated that the long net selling period was mainly due to high market valuations, making it difficult to find sufficiently attractive opportunities. This shift is seen as a clear signal of more aggressive capital allocation under Abel's leadership as CEO, with Berkshire moving from "patient waiting" to "starting to act."
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