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CITIC Securities believes that the U.S. and Iran are increasingly close to reaching an agreement, and the market has basically priced this as the baseline scenario. The biggest change after reaching an agreement will be the simultaneous replenishment of supply and demand and a rapid warming of economic activity. Currently, some economic indicators are noticeably weak, reflecting a delay in demand ahead of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Micro entities are waiting rather than rushing to replenish inventory and start operations, which is an abnormal disturbance. As the agreement is reached and navigation in the Strait is restored, supply and demand will return to normal, and economic activity will show significant improvement after June. Changes in macro variables will also alter the environmental assumptions of market strategies, leading to a gradual balancing of styles. The reduction of large funds is nearing its end, and after macro stability is achieved, allocation funds will gradually return, driving the recovery of some undervalued sectors. In terms of allocation, continue to actively reduce volatility and reconstruct the barbell structure of AI + energy.

According to Axios, American Republicans are increasingly dissatisfied with the flow of political donations in the cryptocurrency industry, demanding that the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake, which holds about $165 million in funds, clarify its stance and focus on supporting Republican candidates in the 2026 midterm elections.Republicans pointed out that, against the backdrop of significant progress in promoting pro-crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act, Fairshake has yet to announce specific election investment plans, which is disappointing. The points of contention include:Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown: Fairshake spent over $40 million in 2024 to defeat incumbent Senator Brown, but Brown's attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry has noticeably softened in recent years.New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas: His Stand With Crypto rating rose from "F" to "A" within 8 months, and Republicans initially expected Fairshake to focus on his campaign.In response, Fairshake supporters stated that it is still too early to speak out and emphasized that the PAC is bipartisan in nature, aiming to "reward supporters and punish critics," rather than unconditionally supporting a particular party. Some pro-crypto Republicans (such as the Winklevoss brothers) have established separate independent groups specifically to support Republican candidates.

According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst August Hyldgaard stated in a report that Tuesday's U.S. consumer inflation data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. "If the data exceeds expectations on the upside, along with strong labor market data, it will keep the Federal Reserve in its current wait-and-see mode."

According to Bloomberg, the UK Treasury and the Bank of England are discussing slowing down the progress of the "Britcoin" digital pound project, with the "advance or halt" decision originally scheduled for this summer possibly being changed to a temporary pause.Sources say that regulators want to first observe the progress of banks in areas such as tokenized deposits, as these private innovations may achieve some similar rapid low-cost payment functions to CBDCs or stablecoins within the existing regulatory framework. The digital pound is currently nearing the end of its design phase, but it faces public, parliamentary, and some officials' doubts regarding privacy, necessity, and its impact on the commercial banking system. Internal research from the Bank of England also shows that as digital payment methods improve, the marginal benefits of launching a retail CBDC are declining.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, indicating that it will continue its "wait-and-see" strategy. Matthew Vegari, head of research at Clearwater Analytics investment platform, pointed out that the Federal Reserve is unwilling to "turn a blind eye" to energy-driven inflation. He also mentioned that the White House's attempts to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have backfired, and Powell will continue to serve in his position. If the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts amid accelerating inflation, it will stem from a noticeable weakness in the labor market rather than political pressure.

According to The Block, Bitcoin maintained a volatile consolidation above $77,000 on Wednesday, with the market adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. This FOMC meeting is seen as a critical juncture, with the market generally expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may also be his last as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with the market pricing in uncertainties regarding policy and potential power transition.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure, and is likely to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

According to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated that the labor market is currently in a generally stable state, but inflation remains high at 3%, and much work still needs to be done. He expects the Federal Reserve to temporarily hold its position and observe the development of the situation. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle also expects that the statement after the Federal Reserve meeting will acknowledge the improvement in the job market and the rise in inflation, but the policy guidance will remain unchanged, with most expecting to maintain interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve pointed out in the Beige Book released on April 16 that economic activity in most regions of the United States continues to grow at a moderate to slight pace amid a new round of uncertainty triggered by the war in Iran and rising energy costs. Overall price increases remain moderate, but energy and fuel costs have risen significantly across all 12 Federal Reserve districts. The report indicates that the Middle East conflict is seen as a major source of uncertainty, increasing the complexity of businesses' decisions regarding hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The data is as of April 6 and reflects the initial impact of the war on the U.S. economy.

According to Jin Ten, Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee stated on Tuesday that if the Iran war leads to persistently high oil prices, thereby slowing the process of inflation returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates until 2027. He mentioned that he originally thought there could be multiple rate cuts in 2026, but if inflation remains high, the timing of rate cuts will be delayed. His confidence has weakened, noting that in some cases, interest rates may be raised.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the U.S. should "watch and wait" before lowering interest rates.

Ahead of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend, oil prices have risen but remain below $100 per barrel. Emmanuel Belostreino, head of global crude oil and geopolitical market data at Kpler, stated, "The outcome of the negotiations, especially whether a viable shipping navigation agreement can be formed, is a key variable in determining whether the current backlog situation can begin to ease."In early European trading, both WTI and Brent crude oil continued to rise, currently reported at $99.7 per barrel and $97.6 per barrel, respectively. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, and supply disruptions keep the market tense. Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia's main export route (the East-West pipeline) have resulted in a daily reduction of approximately 700,000 barrels in the pipeline's delivery capacity.

CME Group announced plans to launch futures contracts for Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI), further enriching its regulated cryptocurrency derivatives product line, and is currently awaiting approval from regulatory authorities. Market participants can choose between mini contracts or standard contracts: 1. AVAX futures: 5,000 AVAX, mini AVAX futures: 500 AVAX; 2. SUI futures: 50,000 SUI, mini SUI futures: 5,000 SUI.

Charles Schwab stated that its banking subsidiary, Charles Schwab Premier Bank, will offer direct trading services for Bitcoin and Ethereum through Schwab Crypto accounts. CEO Rick Wurster mentioned that the service is planned to begin limited testing in the second quarter of 2026 and will officially launch in the first half of the year. The waiting list is currently open, and the initial service area covers most of the United States except for New York and Louisiana. Users must hold a Charles Schwab brokerage account to apply, and the service will not initially support external cryptocurrency deposits or withdrawals. As of February, Charles Schwab manages a total of $12.22 trillion in assets and has 38.9 million active brokerage accounts.

According to the official Twitter announcement, the TRON ecosystem Easter Creator Challenge officially starts today, with a total prize pool of 500 USDT inviting all users to participate. The event runs from now until April 6. Participants need to create poster works themed around Easter, incorporating elements from any TRON ecosystem project (JUST / SUN / AINFT / BitTorrent / WINkLink), publish them on the X platform, and tag the involved project parties and 3 friends, adding the topic #TRONEasterFun to successfully participate. This event offers a first prize of 200 USDT, a second prize of 100 USDT, and a third prize of 50 USDT, along with a 150 USDT lucky prize shared among 10 creators. We sincerely invite all community members to actively participate, empowering the ecosystem with creativity and conveying value through their works. The TRON ecosystem will continue to promote diversified community building, and we look forward to your wonderful presentations.

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

Greeks.live posted an analysis on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound at $71,000, with the crisis of decline temporarily alleviated. The implied volatility (IV) across various major maturities has shown a significant decline, with mid to short-term IV dropping over 5% from its peak and more than 3% compared to two days ago. Ethereum's mid to short-term IV has decreased over 8% from its peak and more than 5% compared to two days ago.Skew has fully rebounded, with many put options established during the crisis being closed out, restoring a balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration, with over 40% of options expiring, and the most concentrated strike at $75,000 remains a strong resistance level. (Note: Skew typically refers to the difference in implied volatility of options with different strike prices; an upward movement in this indicator usually indicates a warming market risk appetite and an increase in bullish sentiment.)