Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Waller's debut turns hawkish, half of the officials expect interest rate hikes; US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding to ease geopolitical risks; US three major indexes retreat, tech stocks under pressure

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, but the dot plot shows increasing divergence, with 9 officials expecting rate hikes before the end of 2026, raising the median to 3.75%. Chairman Waller emphasized that inflation is far above the 2% target and appointed five special working groups on monetary policy. The new statement simplifies the wording and focuses on price stability. Market expectations for rate hikes by the end of the year have significantly increased, strengthening support for the dollar but potentially increasing volatility pressure on the stock market and risk assets.

International Commodities The US and Iran officially signed a memorandum of understanding, committing to end military actions, lift sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, involving 14 clauses related to reconstruction funding and nuclear issue handling. This agreement alleviates concerns about energy supply disruptions, putting short-term pressure on oil prices while providing support for safe-haven assets like gold, highlighting the direct transmission of geopolitical easing to the commodity market.

Macroeconomic Policy Trump stated that the Federal Reserve's maintenance of interest rates "is also fine" and hinted at the possibility of rate hikes. The Fed predicts higher core inflation and a slight decrease in GDP growth, reflecting the impact of supply shocks. Policy signals have turned cautious, combined with easing in the Middle East, which is beneficial for short-term risk appetite recovery, but the uncertainty of the inflation path will still dominate subsequent market expectations.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,300/ounce, +1.25%.
• Spot Silver: Approximately $69/ounce, +1.9%.
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $75/barrel, -1.13%.
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $79/barrel, -1.0%.
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 100.332 points, -0.05%.

Driving Factors Analysis: The US-Iran memorandum significantly reduces the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices lower, while the Fed's hawkish turn boosts the dollar. Gold fluctuates narrowly between safe-haven demand and a strong dollar, while silver rebounds moderately with industrial demand expectations. Overall, geopolitical easing combined with expectations of a higher interest rate path suppresses the upward space for commodities in the short term, but a strong dollar may continue to exert pressure on emerging markets and commodities, focusing on the actual impact of subsequent sanction relief progress on supply-demand balance.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $64,600, -1.85%.
• ETH: Approximately $1,750, -2.34%.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.31 trillion, -1.4%.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $440 million, long positions liquidation approximately $310 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approximately 64,503 USDT, at the lower edge of the main liquidation concentration area, with a large number of 50x and 100x short positions concentrated above $65,500-$66,900, the cumulative short liquidation scale far exceeds the long liquidation scale below, indicating a possibility of upward sweeping of short liquidity in the short term. Although there is a buildup of long liquidations around $63,500-$64,000, the scale is significantly weaker than above, thus from the liquidation distribution, the market is more inclined to first test the short liquidity in the $65,500-$66,500 area before deciding on the subsequent direction.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF, as of yesterday's close, net inflow of $10.2 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: The Fed's hawkish signals and Waller's communication shift triggered deleveraging, combined with the US-Iran agreement easing risk appetite, BTC/ETH fell in sync but the total market cap held key levels. ETF fund flows remain relatively stable, with long position liquidations dominating, and on the technical side, BTC tests key support. Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical easing form a hedge, with a short-term trend leaning towards volatility, focusing on institutional consensus on adaptability to a higher interest rate environment and capital rotation.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed around 52,000 points (-0.6%).
• S&P 500: Closed around 7,511 points (-0.57%).
• Nasdaq: Closed around 26,376 points (-1.15%).

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: Approximately $206.11, -0.02%.
• AAPL: Approximately $296.36, -0.96%.
• MSFT: Approximately $379, -1.5%.
• GOOGL: Approximately $365.94, -1.96%.
• AMZN: Approximately $239.85, -2.50%.
• META: Approximately $580, -1.2%.
• TSLA: Approximately $401.35, -0.82%.

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: US stock indices show divergence, with the Dow benefiting from defensive attributes reaching record highs, while the Nasdaq is dragged down by tech pullbacks. Some AI-related stocks among the seven giants face valuation pressure and the impact of Fed signals, while individual stocks like Tesla show event-driven divergence. Overall, sectors remain cautious under the backdrop of hawkish policies and geopolitical easing, with the long-term narrative of AI still resilient, but short-term leverage and interest rate sensitivity lead to increased stock divergence.

Overview of Cryptocurrency Stock Derivatives

• 24H Transaction Volume: $16.942 billion (-9.60%)
• Total Open Interest: $4.651 billion (+3.00%)
• 24H Liquidation Amount: $24.9123 million
• Transaction Volume Proportion: 8.15%
• Open Interest Proportion: 4.29%
• Liquidation Proportion: 5.63%

Sector Performance

• Technology Sector Highest Open Interest: $2.246 billion
• Financial Sector: $173 million
• Biotechnology Sector: $14.2055 million
• Consumer Sector: $72.1029 million
• Industrial Sector: $33.6049 million

Open Interest Heat Map

• SPCX: $699 million
• MU: $428 million
• NVDA: $264 million
• SNDK: $231 million
• MRVL: $157 million

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Chip Sector Overall mixed performance (some sub-sectors show significant divergence)

• Rising Representatives: ARM up over 5%, Western Digital (WDC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO) up over 4%.
• Falling Representatives: SanDisk-related, NXP (NXPI), NVIDIA (NVDA) down over 1%. Driving Factors: The Fed's Waller debut releases hawkish signals, raising the median rate forecast and simplifying statements, leading to cautious expectations for long-term growth and capital costs, putting pressure on high-valuation AI/chip growth stocks. However, ARM shows resilience in AI edge computing and agent trends, while Broadcom benefits from diversified applications and corporate orders; memory/storage-related stocks are dragged down by cost transmission and cyclical concerns. Intel's 18A-P process risk trial production news boosts some supply chains, but the overall sector still shows divergence under the influence of macro interest rate paths, potentially continuing high Beta characteristics in the short term.

Aerospace/Emerging Technology Sector

• SpaceX closed down approximately 4.95% on its first day of trading. Driving Factors: As a high-valuation new stock, profit-taking pressure emerges against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish turn and rising capital cost expectations. Although SpaceX has significant monopoly advantages in the Starlink and launch services fields in the long term, initial trading volatility amplifies, combined with a phase-wise retreat in market risk appetite.

III. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. ASML - Terafab Project Supply Warning Event Overview: ASML's CEO stated that services for Musk's Terafab and other new projects need to avoid supply bottlenecks, which presents significant opportunities for wafer fabs but requires proper management. Market Interpretation: Institutions focus on its leadership position in AI infrastructure expansion, with supply management capabilities being key. Investment Insight: Long-term benefits from the semiconductor cycle, but need to track supply chain execution; short-term volatility may provide entry windows.

2. Apple (AAPL) - iPhone Air Upgrade and Pricing Strategy Event Overview: Apple is advancing the second-generation iPhone Air (to be released in Spring 2027), adding a camera and optimizing battery life, equipped with the A20 Pro chip; Cook confirmed that product prices will rise due to increased chip costs. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as a measure to enhance product attractiveness, with pricing reflecting cost pressures in the supply chain. Investment Insight: Focus on innovation cycles and pricing elasticity, with the service ecosystem providing a buffer.

3. Intel (INTC) - Process Progress and AI CPU Outlook Event Overview: 18A-P enters risk trial production, improving performance/power consumption; Bernstein raises target price, emphasizing that AI agents will drive CPU demand. Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic about the CPU/GPU configuration balance shift in the AI 2.0 era. Investment Insight: Process breakthroughs may reshape competitiveness, focus on the migration of foundry customers.

4. Amazon (AMZN) - Quantum Computing Prospects Event Overview: Executives predict the first commercial quantum computer will be launched within 5-7 years, with a development trajectory similar to semiconductors. Market Interpretation: Long-term technological layout is recognized, strengthening cloud/AI competitiveness. Investment Insight: The investment cycle in quantum fields is long, focus on milestone progress.

IV. Market Dynamics

1. Strategy's preferred stock STRC closed at $89 on Wednesday, down 11% from its $100 par value, hitting an intraday low of $88.50, marking the lowest closing price since its listing. STRC currently pays an effective dividend yield of 12.9%, aiming to maintain a stable price around $100 through monthly rate adjustments. When the stock price is above par, Strategy issues new shares to purchase Bitcoin, but this plan has been suspended during STRC's discounted trading.

2. Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh stated that today's rate decision confirms that the Fed's recent hawkish shift is not solely related to rising energy prices. Despite recent oil price declines, half of the FOMC members expect rate hikes as early as this year, reflecting a strong labor market and inflation data. Their fundamental judgment remains that the Fed can barely avoid rate hikes, but the path is narrow, and future inflation data will carry significant weight.

3. "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented on the Fed's rate decision: This Fed dot plot shows a clear hawkish tendency. Among the 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 even expecting multiple hikes.

4. The government address of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 533.2 BTC ($34.52 million) to CEX. Since June of last year, the government address of Bhutan has reportedly sold approximately 10,451 BTC for cashing out $979 million over the course of a year, with an average price of $93,738.

5. Research firm K33 pointed out in a market report that Bitcoin rebounded after two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines, with the number held by long-term holders reaching an all-time high, possibly indicating the end of the bear market. Research director Vetle Lunde stated that the decrease in old coin trading activity indicates a reduced willingness to sell among long-term holders, with patient participants steadily absorbing supply, further suggesting that the bear market may soon end. "Supporting this view is the fact that currently, 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held by long-term holders, a record high, reflecting ongoing accumulation and a gradual shift in the market environment towards a more positive direction."

V. Today's Market Calendar

June 18 (Thursday)

1. US Economic Data: Initial jobless claims for the week of June 13, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, etc.
2. US Stock Earnings: Focus on Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), etc. (Consumer, Technology Services sectors). ★★★★

June 19 (Friday)

1. US markets closed for Juneteenth federal holiday.

This week's core focus for US stocks:
"Federal Reserve Focus Week" Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting + retail sales and other economic data + earnings from Accenture/Kroger, will dominate macro policy expectations and market sentiment. The first complete trading week after SpaceX (SPCX) IPO (impact on space/technology-related concept stocks).

Institutional Views: Renowned investment bank analysts believe that the hawkish tone of Waller's debut combined with the dot plot adjustment has intensified short-term interest rate uncertainty, but the US-Iran memorandum significantly eases energy risks, providing a buffer for the market. The strong dollar and falling oil prices create a linkage, benefiting US stock defensive sectors while technology growth faces valuation tests. The cryptocurrency market is under short-term pressure but the ETF foundation remains solid, with a long-term outlook favoring a recovery of risk assets under a macro soft landing scenario. Overall, it is recommended to focus on data validation and geopolitical execution progress, maintaining a neutral to cautiously optimistic allocation.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.