cycle

According to Cointelegraph, VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck stated that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, but warned that 2026 is historically a down year in the four-year halving cycle. He noted that institutional adoption has fundamentally remained unchanged, lacking catalysts for significant price increases.

Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated that he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency market entering a new super cycle and believes that Ethereum will become a core beneficiary asset. Tom Lee pointed out that the two main driving forces of this cycle are asset tokenization driven by Wall Street and the rapid development of AI Agents.He stated, "We continue to expect that the cryptocurrency market and Ethereum will usher in a super cycle." Additionally, Tom Lee believes that the significant correction of Ethereum previously has provided an attractive buying opportunity. Currently, the staking scale within the Ethereum ecosystem continues to rise, with over 39.2 million ETH staked, accounting for about 32% of the total supply.According to market news, Bitmine increased its holdings by a total of 111,942 ETH last week, with its ETH holdings accounting for approximately 4.47% of the total supply of 120.7 million ETH.

BitMEX senior research analyst Shang Wu stated that the continued rise in government bond yields signals an impending "structural" shift, which will create a "super cycle" for Bitcoin's price increase.Shang Wu pointed out that under the pressure of the $39 trillion U.S. debt and massive spending on AI infrastructure, central banks will ultimately respond through currency devaluation and invisible liquidity injections. At that time, investors will sell off devalued traditional assets and turn to allocate Bitcoin, a scarce asset that cannot be inflated.Last week, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond broke 5.14%, while the yield on Japan's 10-year government bond reached 2.8%.He believes that while short-term volatility is inevitable, in the long run, this will be the biggest structural benefit for Bitcoin.

According to analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) in a social media post, since the event on October 10 last year, Bitcoin has undergone a long de-leveraging phase in the derivatives market. When open interest falls below the 180-day moving average, it usually indicates a decline in futures activity, and investors' risk-off behavior leads to a reduction in open interest. Affected by the deterioration of the global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, traders generally choose to reduce their risk exposure.This de-leveraging phase on Binance has lasted for about 8 months, with the last similar occurrence dating back to the previous bear market in 2022, just before the FTX collapse. However, since early May, the trend seems to be changing. Open interest on Binance has risen from $6.4 billion in March to about $8.96 billion currently, re-establishing itself above the current 180-day moving average of approximately $8.75 billion. This effectively marks the end of the de-leveraging cycle.The return of investors to the derivatives market has clearly driven the current upward rebound, but it is still too early to call it a true recovery. Despite the continued deterioration of the macro environment, Bitcoin's significant pullback has attracted more speculative traders seeking rebound opportunities. It should be noted that this trend remains highly fragile; once Bitcoin resumes the adjustment trend that began last October, these traders may exit as quickly as they entered.

Crypto financial infrastructure Cycles announced the completion of a $6.4 million seed round financing, led by Blockchange Ventures, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Compound VC, Primitive Ventures, and others. After this round of financing, the total amount raised has reached $8.7 million.The company aims to build a private clearing network for the crypto market and seeks to enhance capital utilization through a "clearing network" mechanism, achieving multi-party net settlement through zero-knowledge proofs and trusted execution environments, thereby reducing counterparty risk and minimizing liquidity consumption.

According to The Block, crypto research firm K33 stated that despite Bitcoin's decline of about 6% after retesting the 200-day moving average of approximately $82,000 this month, the low of about $60,000 in February this year may still represent the largest pullback of this cycle.K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rebounds in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market has experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average, and market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a mild adjustment rather than a precursor to a new round of deep declines.K33 also noted that institutional capital flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F data shows that institutional investors collectively reduced their holdings by about 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC; among them, neutral strategy firms like Jane Street and Millennium contributed most of the reduction.Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth largest five-day outflow since the launch of the U.S. spot ETF. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC approaches the ETF cost basis, reflecting that investors tend to stop losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing a deep pullback.

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the change in the relationship between cost basis and price behavior is one of the best perspectives for observing BTC forming a bottom structure, and the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis" (1-3m_RP) is the most effective reference.The formation of each round of bear bottom structures is accompanied by a gradual shift in the short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP, yellow line). Taking previous cycles as examples: in 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around the short-term holder cost basis for a long time after first breaking through it; in 2019-2020, BTC strongly broke through the short-term holder cost basis and then entered a small bull market; in 2022-2023, BTC broke through the short-term holder cost basis, then retested it a second time, and after gaining support, rebounded again.Since BTC broke through on April 15, it has remained above the short-term holder cost basis. However, regardless of how the trend develops next, a bottom will eventually form, and BTC will break through the yellow line and inevitably turn. Analysts believe that the important thing is not to predict the specific trend, but to prepare in advance and allocate positions reasonably. The trends from previous years are only examples and not investment advice.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated on the X platform that the 2x leveraged Cerebras Systems ETF (ticker: CBRG) has officially begun trading, while its underlying asset CBRS only started trading in the afternoon of the previous day, meaning that the launch of the leveraged ETF was completed just hours apart from the underlying asset. This sets a record for the rapid product launch pace. This "fast-follow" ETF issuance model is accelerating, and in the future, leveraged ETFs around non-public or high-profile assets like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may also emerge with similar rapid replication issuance paths, reflecting a significant increase in the productization speed of the ETF market for new asset exposures.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated on the X platform that the 2x leveraged Cerebras Systems ETF (ticker: CBRG) has officially begun trading, while its underlying asset CBRS only started trading the previous afternoon, meaning that the launch of the leveraged ETF was completed just hours apart, setting a record for the rapid product launch pace.This "fast-follow" ETF issuance model is accelerating, and in the future, leveraged ETFs around non-public or high-demand assets such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may also emerge with similar rapid replication issuance paths, reflecting a significant increase in the productization speed of the ETF market for new asset exposures.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Bond Company CEO Pierre Rochard stated that the current fourth bear market of Bitcoin has significantly decoupled from past cycles and is performing stronger. In the previous cycles, the maximum drawdown was about 85% from 2013-2015, nearly 77% from 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, while this round has dropped from a historical high of about $126,000 to around $60,000, with a maximum drawdown of only about 52%.Rochard believes that this resilience mainly comes from two new demands: the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeding $59 billion, and continuous purchases by corporate treasuries (such as Strategy holding over 818,000 BTC). These institutional demands did not exist during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, also stated that the current market is no longer the same environment as in 2022, and the view that "Bitcoin will break out of the bear flag pattern and bottom in October 2026" may be the most crowded trading expectation.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned into an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has appeared after 2019 and early 2023, indicating that the worst adjustment phase has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover. However, there was one exception in March 2022 when the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, but the price was subsequently rejected, confirming a local top rather than a new bull market.Regarding the current signal for May 2026, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deeply bearish asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown signs of fatigue, making this signal less clear than a classic early cycle confirmation. The analyst tends to believe that this is more likely a local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless the price strongly confirms this trend in the future.

According to Jinshi reports, multiple institutions have conducted forward-looking analyses on the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. Wells Fargo and ING both expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December. ANZ believes the Federal Reserve may restart the rate cut cycle at the September meeting. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America pointed out that economic growth faces downside risks, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year.

As market sentiment warms and liquidity returns, AI technology is accelerating its leap from a mere "analytical tool" to a core "trading hub," deeply reconstructing the underlying logic of the financial market's game.At 8 PM on April 28, a cutting-edge roundtable discussion focusing on "AI Trading" will be held in Space. At that time, several industry experts will engage in in-depth discussions from the perspectives of AI infrastructure evolution, trading structure reshaping, and financial paradigm shifts, jointly analyzing whether AI's deep integration into the trading process is becoming the true starting point driving a new cycle of evolution in Web3, guiding participants to accurately capture real Alpha opportunities with long-term value in a market landscape full of uncertainties.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from the participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "After BTC Breaks $78,000: Geopolitical Downgrade + Regulatory Breakthrough, Is a New Narrative Coming to the Crypto Market?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Xiao Hai, 0x31ad.sun, Crypto.0824, and Mr. Mis will be invited to attend and discuss the marginal impact of easing geopolitical risks on the pricing of risk assets, as well as the reconstruction of the medium and long-term narrative of crypto assets against the backdrop of a gradually clarifying global regulatory environment.