cycle

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out in a recent report that the performance trajectory of gold ETFs over the past 22 years may provide important references for Bitcoin ETFs. Both gold and Bitcoin ETFs are packaged products centered around "non-yielding assets," lacking dividends, interest payments, or government backing, with prices primarily driven by investor sentiment.The report states that the leading gold ETF, GLD, once topped the list of the world's largest ETFs, then experienced a prolonged period of stagnation lasting about eight years, but each cycle's peak has gradually risen. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs may similarly undergo a repetitive cycle of "rapid ascent—sharp pullback—prolonged recovery," with peaks gradually rising with each cycle.

Cryptoquant indicates that its 365-day PnL index signal continues to decline, showing that the current BTC cycle may not have reached its peak yet. BTC is currently trading at approximately $62,656, down about 50% from its historical high of around $126,000 in October 2025.Cryptoquant's bull-bear cycle indicator turned green on May 12, 2026, marking the first bullish signal since March 2023. Cryptoquant stated that this indicator had shown false positives in 2022, and the green signal itself does not guarantee a sustained upward trend. A major whale bought BTC worth $98,900,000 at the low of $59,734 on June 5 and made a profit of $3,500,000 within two days after the market rebound. BTC has since maintained above $60,000, trading at approximately $62,550 at the time of writing.

A report released by the Bank of Korea on July 13 pointed out that the global semiconductor market is still in a state of supply shortage, and the chip supercycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to last for a long time, which refutes market concerns that the chip cycle has peaked.The central bank's analysis states that the current chip cycle is different from previous ones, primarily driven by competitive investments made by companies to respond to the fundamental changes in the industrial ecosystem brought about by AI. At the same time, due to the current market being dominated by customized products such as high bandwidth memory (HBM), the pace of supply expansion is more constrained than in the past.Recently, concerns over excessive investment in AI infrastructure and potential oversupply of memory chips have triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, with significant declines in the stock prices of South Korean chip giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. In response, the Bank of Korea stated that although there remains uncertainty regarding the speed of AI technology adoption and profit prospects, major investment banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley generally predict that the global semiconductor market will maintain strong momentum at least through next year.

Sharplink Research Director Steven Ehrlich published an analysis pointing out that Ethereum started strong in July 2026, with an increase of about 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests that investors should pay attention to ETH's performance in July. Steven Ehrlich noted that the core advantage of ETH's July performance is not merely volatility, but the asymmetry between rises and falls: when July sees an increase, the average rise is about 43%, while in years of decline, the average drop is only about 5% (from 2020 to 2025).Historically, months of significant gains for ETH are usually driven by "Ethereum-specific catalysts + supply-demand imbalance." The current market environment also presents similar opportunities, such as: institutional infrastructure is being built, the Ethereum roadmap is continuously upgrading, and corporate funds are consistently increasing their holdings of ETH. Currently, Ethereum is entering a new development phase, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become important factors driving ETH's market performance.

According to the analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently 0.158, with its 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155.On June 2, the 30-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating a weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero axis.

According to Bitcoin News, analyst @gaah_im reported that the Bitcoin miner cycle pressure composite index has fallen to a new low for 2026, entering the historically "undervalued" range. This indicator combines the Puell Multiple and the inverse miner capitulation index, both of which measure the dynamics of miner income and costs, and their synchronous signals have historically been strong indicators of Bitcoin cycle bottoms.Previously, this composite index has synchronized crashes that occurred near major Bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. The only previous time this composite index touched 0 was during the capitulation period in 2015, when Bitcoin fell from about $300 to $160 within a week. This indicator is exhibiting similar behavior in 2026, marking that miner pressure has once again reached a historically rare level.

According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of continuous outflows of institutional funds in the United States, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, forming a clear divergence from the record outflows of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.Analysis points out that this phase of divergence has historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds are withdrawing, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, similar to the capital redistribution structure commonly seen at the bottom of previous cycles.On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating that on-site buying is not strong, large wallets continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and the market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging and long-term capital accumulation."

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald has released a report stating that the cryptocurrency market is entering the final stage of the current bear market cycle. Analysts pointed out that as of June 10, Bitcoin has been 252 days since its peak in 2025, with a decline of about 51%. In the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its bottom 384 days after peaking; if history repeats itself, this round of decline may bottom out around the end of October. The report cautions that this model is not an accurate timing tool, and macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks still exist, but the reflexive nature of the cryptocurrency market suggests that historical cycles may self-reinforce.Cantor suggests that investors shift their focus from speculative activities to networks with the ability to accumulate lasting value, identifying Hyperliquid as a typical case of fee-driven token economics. Bitcoin remains the benchmark currency asset, Ethereum is the dominant collateral layer for on-chain finance, and Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated advantages but still need to prove sustainable value. Cantor has also included digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies in its research coverage, giving them a buy rating, with target prices of $7.9 and $0.9, respectively.

The semiconductor research institution SemiAnalysis has released a latest analysis indicating that Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has clearly become the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer. Although its production capacity and cash flow are continuously growing, the institution believes that Changxin Memory still faces multiple challenges in equipment, technology, and market, and will not end the current storage "super cycle" in the short term.In terms of specific challenges, export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (such as EUV, advanced etching, and TSV tools) severely restrict Changxin's expansion into more advanced processes and high bandwidth memory (HBM) fields; although domestic equipment (such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, etc.) has alleviated some pressure, it cannot fully resolve the integration and yield bottlenecks across multiple process links, resulting in its technology still lagging behind leading manufacturers by several generations. Additionally, Changxin's market share is currently still highly concentrated in the Chinese domestic market, with global expansion limited by geopolitical factors and customers' willingness to diversify their supply chains.In response to market concerns that Changxin might "impact the global market with cheap chips," SemiAnalysis clarified that there is currently a severe structural shortage in the DRAM market, and the increase in Changxin's production capacity may even struggle to fully meet domestic demand in China. In fact, the prices of Chinese memory chips are also soaring significantly, in line with the global upward trend, and Changxin is similarly a beneficiary of the shortage premium. Therefore, Changxin Memory should be viewed as a long-term structural competitive force, and in the current context of accelerated AI demand and constrained supply, it cannot shake the fundamental super cycle dominated by leading manufacturers in the short term.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that the current reading of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator shows that the market is nearing or is in the bottom area of this cycle. This indicator measures miners' profitability by tracking the ratio of daily miner revenue to the 365-day average. Historically, when miner income remains low and they are forced to sell BTC to cover operating costs, it often corresponds to cycle lows.Davis stated that although the indicator has not yet reached the green oversold zone, signals of pressure on miners have already appeared, which historically usually marks the beginning of the end of a bear market. He also noted that the price signals in this cycle are overall milder compared to historical patterns. Davis believes that whether $59,000 can hold as the low point of this cycle will be revealed in the coming months, but current signs are becoming clearer.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted on the X platform, "In the 1990s, the internet was just emerging. Almost every idea seemed feasible. Hundreds of companies reached valuations of 500 million to 1 billion dollars based on these possibilities. By the early 21st century, that optimism faded. There were no longer hundreds of companies competing. Instead, a few companies that truly proved their worth thrived. Because they succeeded with demonstrable value, they operated longer and were larger in scale than in the previous cycle. The cryptocurrency sector is also undergoing a similar transformation. The number of winners will decrease, but the winners will stand out due to their demonstrable value. Their scale will be larger, and their operating time will be longer than people expect."

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom of this cycle is still around $48,000. Currently, the seller risk ratio after Bitcoin's adjustment first entered the red zone when it fell below $60,000, indicating that the volume of loss supply has begun to exceed the volume of profit supply, and the unrealized pressure on holders has significantly increased.On the other hand, the Cumulative Value Destruction Day (CVDD) valuation model shows that the structural bottom of Bitcoin's current cycle is around $48,000. Axel Adler Jr. summarized that historically similar zones often correspond to market capitulation phases and bottom formation processes, such as the cycle lows in 2019 and 2023. However, it remains to be seen whether the price can hold the $60,000 area, while the seller risk ratio smooth line continues to rise. Although the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,000, the market is still at the lower end of the valuation range, and caution is still needed regarding the final confirmation process of the cycle bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR) entered the red zone for the first time when BTC dropped to $60,000, with the volume of losses exceeding the volume of profits, reflecting the deep pressure on holders. Historically, when this indicator enters the red zone, it often coincides with the formation of a bottom.Meanwhile, the CVDD valuation model shows that the structural bottom is around $48,300, a level that has almost never been closed below in Bitcoin's history. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to $66,000, and the smoothed SSRR has begun to turn upward. Analysts believe that $60,000 is a behavioral pressure zone, while $48,000 is the boundary for structural risk. The subsequent confirmation of recovery signals is when the smoothed SSRR exits the red zone and the price stabilizes above $60,000; the main risk is the emergence of new red signals at lower levels and testing the $48,000 support. Overall, the market is gradually shifting towards an accumulation pattern.

According to Jinshi reports, Krishna Bhimavarapu, an economist at State Street Global Advisors in the Asia-Pacific region, stated that supported by enhanced economic resilience and rising inflation, central banks around the world may be entering a phase of synchronized interest rate hikes. Bhimavarapu pointed out that the Bank of Japan seems ready to raise interest rates to the psychological key point of 1% and may hint at a second rate hike this year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia appears to be pausing interest rate hikes due to weakening economic growth and labor market momentum, but the inflation issue remains unresolved, potentially leaving room for at least one more rate hike. Bhimavarapu expects that the Federal Reserve may shift to a hawkish stance by the end of this week.