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first_img The Bitcoin supply on the exchange has dropped to 2.67 million coins, and a CryptoQuant researcher claims it may drive up prices

On-chain data company CryptoQuant researcher Rei Researcher pointed out in a report released on Monday that as the Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to shrink, the price of Bitcoin may see an upward trend. The report shows that the Bitcoin held by exchanges has decreased from 2.8 million in February to 2.67 million. The recent price of Bitcoin is around $83,485, remaining stable over the past 24 hours but rising 8% over the past 30 days, following the best-performing quarter in years.The report states, "If buying demand continues to improve while exchange supply remains low, Bitcoin could benefit from a supply-demand imbalance, creating favorable conditions for a longer-term upward trend." The report adds, "More importantly, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows in recent weeks, while exchange reserves continue to decline. This is a notable development, indicating that even as the market recovers, the supply available for trading is still decreasing." The report also notes that investors may be transferring Bitcoin out of exchanges and into cold wallets.In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin traded below $65,000 for most of the time. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, the cryptocurrency has been in a bear market for most of this year. However, the situation changed in August when the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of liquidity support repurchase operations, weakening the dollar while boosting non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Analysts say that the so-called "devaluation trade" has heated up again, benefiting Bitcoin as it did in 2024 and 2025. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is still over 30% lower than its historical record.

The annualized volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to 46%, but the number of extreme market conditions this year has already surpassed that of the bear market in 2018

Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 "3 standard deviation" trading days, exceeding the 8 times seen throughout the bear market of 2018. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme market conditions still occur frequently relative to recent price volatility levels. "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from the recent normal volatility range. Data shows that the average price fluctuation for Bitcoin during such extreme conditions this year is about 7%, lower than the approximately 10% seen in 2018.Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia, but during the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 times, the S&P 500's 16 times, and gold's 12 times. Market participants point out that macro shocks and the leverage and concentrated positions in the derivatives market are important factors contributing to the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large quantities, betting on market calmness, sudden news can force related concentrated positions to close, further amplifying price fluctuations.Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also enhancing the market's ability to withstand shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

first_img Analysis: MoonPay Commerce's on-chain monthly transaction volume has dropped to approximately 7.3 million USD

User obchakevich_ published 23 months of on-chain data for MoonPay Commerce, a subsidiary of the payment company MoonPay, covering the period from November 2024 to September 2026. MoonPay announced the acquisition of the payment service Helio on January 13, 2025, which was later renamed MoonPay Commerce, with products still operating under the pre-acquisition smart contracts; the parties did not disclose the price, but Fox Business reported it to be $175 million, while Fintech Futures referred to it as an all-equity transaction. Helio was founded in London in 2022 and claimed to have over 6,000 merchants and cumulative transactions exceeding $1.5 billion at the time of acquisition, integrating with Discord, Shopify, and WooCommerce.The on-chain transaction volume three months before the acquisition was $100.3 million, with fees of $1.08 million, resulting in an annualized fee of about $4.3 million, with the reported price being approximately 40 times that annualized fee. The total transaction volume for the entire year of 2025 was $141.9 million, with fees of $1.59 million; the transaction volume over the past 12 months was $90.7 million, with fees of about $930,000, making the reported price approximately 190 times the latter. Monthly transaction volume decreased from $39.8 million in January 2025 to $9.6 million in March, and $7.3 million in September 2026, with an effective fee rate maintained between 1.05% and 1.20% over the 23 months.
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