far

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Clacton By-Election: Farage's Vote Share" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Farage 60--70%" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 28.85% an hour ago to the current 67.75% (a fluctuation of 38.9%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Clacton By-Election: Farage's Vote Share" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Farage 80%+" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, plummeting from 48.5% an hour ago to the current 30.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise Ignites Rate Cut Trading: Which Will Break Through First Among U.S. Stocks, Gold, and BTC?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Pump Pump Superman, Xiao Zhi, 77, and Grace will be invited to attend, discussing the unexpected changes in non-farm data, the rising expectations for rate cuts in the market, and the interlinked trends of the three major assets: U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC. They will analyze market trading opportunities and potential risks under changes in macro liquidity.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

The non-farm data is a significant positive, gold prices challenge the 4,380 mark, and the last hope for bears has not yet been shattered.

Bank of America and Wells Fargo plan to launch tokenized deposits for select corporate and commercial clients in the fall of 2026, initially supporting transactions in USD and GBP, with plans to expand to more clients and currencies in 2027. Tokenized deposits remain a liability of the bank but enable continuous transfers, programmable payments, faster settlements, and transaction visualization through blockchain.Wells Fargo is not the only bank positioning itself in this business. JPMorgan has expanded its blockchain payment services for institutional clients, and other large financial institutions are also developing similar products and shared networks. Meanwhile, the circulation and transaction volume of stablecoins like USDC continue to grow, being used for settlements in the crypto market, payment networks, and tokenized financial platforms.Tokenized deposits allow funds to remain within the regulated banking system while supporting cross-timeframe transfers and condition-triggered payments. Stablecoins have already covered transactions, remittances, cross-border payments, decentralized finance, and tokenized asset settlements. The adoption of these two types of products will also be influenced by accounting treatments, regulatory rules, and cross-network interoperability.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that for the Federal Reserve, the July employment report will be a difficult data set to interpret. New evidence that the labor market has not re-accelerated may weaken the urgency for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on better inflation data.The decline in the unemployment rate will continue to keep the market focused on inflation data. Whether price pressures are rising or falling will determine if more officials conclude that they cannot maintain their inflation target forecasts with interest rates unchanged. A moderate inflation report will strengthen the rationale for keeping rates unchanged (as two consecutive months of moderate data begin to show a trend rather than noise). Conversely, strong data would call the forecasts into question again and give officials opposing a rate hike the opportunity to seek a fourth vote in favor.

U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, expected 80,000, previous value revised from 57,000 to 20,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm data for July will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Institutions forecast the U.S. July non-farm employment population as follows:Vanguard: +10,000; Berenberg Bank: +40,000; Scotiabank: +50,000; Moody's Analytics: +50,000;CIBC: +63,000; Deutsche Bank: +65,000; Nordea Bank: +65,000; UBS Group: +70,000;TD Securities: +70,000; Danske Bank: +70,000; Morgan Stanley: +70,000; HSBC Holdings: +70,000;Société Générale: +75,000; ING: +75,000; Bank of Montreal: +75,000; Goldman Sachs Group: +75,000;JPMorgan Chase: +75,000; Daiwa Capital: +75,000; Westpac Banking: +75,000; Standard Chartered Bank: +75,000;Panasonic Macro: +75,000; U.S. Bank: +75,000; Imperial Commercial Bank: +75,000; High-Frequency Economics: +78,000;Sumitomo Mitsui: +78,000; Oxford Economics: +80,000; Commonwealth Bank of Australia: +80,000; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +80,000;ANZ Bank: +80,000; Lloyds Bank: +80,000; National Westminster: +85,000; Capital Economics: +90,000;Wells Fargo: +95,000; Barclays Bank: +100,000; Deutsche Bank: +100,000; Société Générale: +105,000;Citigroup: +115,000; Mizuho Securities: +115,000; Nomura Securities: +130,000; Reuters expectation: +80,000.

Tesla stated that TeraFab will be built in Grimes County, Texas, and the number of chips required by Tesla and SpaceX will far exceed the current and future global production capacity.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that Taj Tarsha, the founder of the NFT market project Few and Far, has been charged with securities fraud and wire fraud, accused of concealing the use of funds from investors and misappropriating financing for personal consumption.According to the indictment, Tarsha raised funds from investors starting in 2022 through a SAFT (Simple Agreement for Future Tokens), claiming that the funds would be used to develop a decentralized NFT trading market and the FAR token ecosystem.Prosecutors stated that Tarsha raised over $10 million from at least 67 investors by selling approximately 95 million FAR token rights. However, shortly after the fundraising, he allegedly used investor funds for personal purposes, including online gambling, purchasing high-risk crypto assets, paying for a Miami apartment loan, interior design expenses, and personal DJ activities.The indictment documents show that Tarsha also allegedly misappropriated nearly $1 million in company funds through two bonuses that were not disclosed to investors and co-founders, as well as through high salaries. After an audit revealed anomalies in the related funds, Tarsha was accused of providing false explanations to investors, claiming that the use of funds was in line with project development needs.

Bitcoin Treasuries.NET posted on platform X that the listed company Farmhouse FMHS has purchased an additional 1 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 13.209 Bitcoins.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that this week's market focus has shifted from tech stock earnings reports back to U.S. employment data and Fed policy expectations.The key to this non-farm report is not just the number of new jobs added, but whether the unemployment rate, average hourly wage, and previous values' revisions collectively indicate a "orderly cooling" or "significant slowdown" in the labor market.Lewis Huang stated that if non-farm employment and wage data are both stronger than expected, the market will lower short-term rate cut bets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are expected to strengthen, while gold and high-valuation tech stocks will face pressure; conversely, if employment, wages, and previous values' revisions all weaken, the market will raise expectations for Fed easing, and gold and non-U.S. currencies may receive support.He advised CFD traders to avoid chasing orders in the first minute after data is released, and to focus on observing whether the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and gold form a synchronized confirmation, and to wait for a pullback opportunity after a key price level breakout. The current trading focus is not simply betting on the data's highs and lows, but rather judging how the non-farm report will change the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Wells Fargo plans to launch Tokenized Deposits services aimed at corporate clients, further exploring the application of blockchain technology in the traditional financial system.Wells Fargo stated that the tokenized deposit system will operate on its self-developed blockchain network and support interoperability with other blockchain networks.Tokenized deposits represent bank deposits in a digital form on the blockchain, allowing for faster and more transparent transfers of funds on-chain, while still being supported by the bank's deposit system.This move signifies that large banks are accelerating the construction of blockchain infrastructure and exploring on-chain financial applications in scenarios such as corporate payments, fund management, and inter-institutional settlements.