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leveraged

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The AI boom has boosted the enthusiasm for "leveraged stock trading" in Japan, with the scale of retail investors' margin trading doubling in six months, reaching the highest level since 2016

According to the Nikkei News, individual investors in the Japanese stock market are accelerating their use of leverage to bet on AI trends. As of July, the amount of credit trading by individual investors in the Japanese stock market reached 123 trillion yen (approximately 1.09 trillion yuan), doubling since the beginning of the year and reaching the highest level since related statistics began in 2016.Data shows that in June, the scale of credit trading by Japanese individual investors hit a historical high, and in July it continued to maintain a high level. At the same time, the proportion of credit trading in the overall trading amount of individual investors rose to 83%, also setting a new record.AI concept stocks have become the main driving force behind the surge in credit trading, among which the credit buy balance of AI storage concept stock Kioxia reached 13.23 million shares as of August 7, making it one of the popular targets.Benefiting from the recent rise in the Japanese stock market, the overall performance of leveraged investors has been decent. The floating yield of credit trading investors briefly turned positive in June, although it fell back to a loss of 8.4% by the end of July, it is still better than the average loss level of the past 10 years (-10.2%).

CryptoQuant founder admits mistake, misinterprets CME positions, leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, correcting the previous analysis of CME Bitcoin futures positions, stating that "Total Reportables (large institutional traders)" was mistakenly labeled as "Leveraged Funds," leading to the belief that CME hedge funds rarely turned into net long positions in BTC futures. However, the actual situation is that leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures.Ki Young Ju provided CFTC futures position data as of August 4: 1. Large institutional traders overall show a slight net long position, which includes asset management institutions, market makers, dealers, etc. Ki Young Ju stated that although the net long extent is limited, the previous judgment about institutional direction being bullish still holds. 2. Leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures, but over the past year, their standard BTC futures net short position has decreased by about 50% (measured in BTC), mainly due to the decline in basis trading returns. When the futures basis returns fell below U.S. Treasury yields, the arbitrage space narrowed. Leveraged funds currently show a net long position in Micro BTC futures, but the scale is small, only about +394 BTC, which is approximately 1% of the standard BTC futures net short position. Ki Young Ju indicated that leveraged funds overall have not yet turned into net long positions, but their long-term structural shorts are clearly weakening, which may reflect the closing of arbitrage trades and adjustments in directional positions.

In two months, 3.7 billion won in fees were collected, and the trading volume of South Korean leveraged ETFs plummeted by 90% after regulatory intervention

Retail investors in South Korea are shifting their focus from the growth story of asset management companies to market stability issues in the eyes of regulators, surrounding high-leverage trading of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.Since their debut on May 27, the first batch of single-stock leveraged products in South Korea has quickly become one of the most crowded trades in the current semiconductor rally of the Korean stock market. Sixteen single-stock ETFs and two ETNs designed around Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix allow investors to make directional bets of about 2 times on a single stock. The launch of these products coincided with the warming of the AI storage cycle, leading to a surge of retail funds into the market, pushing the total assets of the Korean ETF market to a historical high at one point.Winners on the fee side quickly emerged. Estimated by net asset size and fee rates, these single-stock leveraged ETFs generated nearly 3.7 billion won in management fees after about two months of operation. Samsung Asset Management took the lion's share due to the scale advantage and higher fee rates of its KODEX products, while Future Asset offered lower fees to gain market share. Early data from Korean media has shown that Samsung and Future Asset together account for over 90% of the net assets of such products, with liquidity further concentrating on leading products.However, this fee feast has also come with significant side effects. In mid-July, the South Korean Financial Services Commission stated that the market value and trading volume of single-stock leveraged products rose rapidly after their launch, with the weight of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in KOSPI once reaching 52%. Regulators also pointed out that the volatility of global storage stocks has significantly increased, and the high volatility of individual stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, combined with product rebalancing trades, could amplify market shocks.Subsequently, South Korean authorities accelerated the tightening of regulations. Starting from July 31, the minimum margin requirement for individual investors investing in such products was raised from 10 million won to 30 million won, and cash was required to meet this requirement, with alternative securities no longer accepted; regulators also suspended the launch of related new products, restricted advertising, and strengthened spread management and investor education.There are signs that trading enthusiasm has cooled. Data from the Korean Exchange shows that after the introduction of new regulations, the daily trading volume of the 16 related single-stock leveraged/inverse ETFs dropped from about 10 to 12 trillion won (peaking at 15 to 20 trillion won) to around 1 trillion won (on August 3-4), and on August 5, it fell to as low as 919.8 billion won (first time below 1 trillion). There has been a slight rebound recently, with the trading volume of the 16 related ETFs at about 7.45 trillion won on July 27.

The effect of South Korea raising the margin threshold is becoming apparent: retail investors are reducing their holdings in leveraged ETFs and turning to spot purchases

According to Daum, after South Korea's financial regulatory authorities raised the base margin for domestic and foreign single-stock leveraged products from 10 million won in securities to 30 million won in pure cash starting July 31, South Korean retail investors began to rapidly adjust their portfolios.According to data from the Korea Securities Depository, Tesla's 2x leveraged product TSLL recorded a net purchase of 14.58 million USD on August 3, but the purchase amount on the 4th plummeted from the previous day's 15.6 million USD to 1.56 million USD, while the selling amount rose to 8.68 million USD, resulting in a net sell of 7.11 million USD for the day. During the same period, Tesla's spot net purchases reached 42.3 million USD, more than five times the net purchase amount of TSLL.Micron Technology and SanDisk also showed similar divergence—Micron's 2x leveraged product flipped from a net purchase of 10.81 million USD on the 3rd to a net sell of 15.98 million USD on the 4th, while SanDisk's 2x leveraged product changed from a net purchase of 17.74 million USD to a net sell of 33.74 million USD. Meanwhile, the spot net inflows for the two companies were 148 million USD and 145 million USD, respectively, indicating a significant trend of funds shifting from leveraged tools to the underlying stocks.The tightened regulations require that the base margin must be paid in cash, with alternative securities such as stocks, ETFs, and bonds no longer counted, and existing investors must also meet the new standards when making additional purchases; selling is unrestricted, but the funds from sales must be settled after T+2 days before they can be counted as cash margin.The new rules were originally planned to be implemented in phases in August, but due to concerns that limiting it to Korean products would lead to a capital influx into overseas leveraged products like Tesla and Nvidia, creating a balloon effect, South Korean regulators moved the implementation date up to July 31 and simultaneously covered both domestic and foreign products.South Korean investors have reacted strongly, believing that extending measures aimed at local market volatility to overseas products constitutes excessive intervention, and that only South Korean investors must meet the 30 million won cash threshold, putting them at a disadvantage in global competition.

South Korea's increase in margin thresholds for leveraged ETFs has taken effect, with the trading volume of single-stock leveraged products dropping to one-tenth of its peak

After South Korea raised the margin requirements for single-stock leveraged ETF investors, the trading activity of related products has significantly decreased, with trading volume dropping to about one-tenth of the previous peak level.According to data from the Korea Exchange, the total trading volume of 16 single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs related to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the KOSPI market was 12.388 trillion won within two trading days after the new measures were implemented, a decrease of 58.6% compared to 29.907 trillion won on the day the measures were implemented (July 31).Previously, South Korean regulators raised the minimum cash margin requirement for single-stock leveraged ETF investors from 10 million won to 30 million won. Compared to the trading volume of 124.485 trillion won on the last trading day before the measures were implemented (July 30), the current trading scale of related products has dropped to about one-tenth.The enthusiasm of retail investors has cooled significantly. Data shows that the trading volume of retail investors in single-stock leveraged and inverse products has fallen to 250.7 billion won, less than a quarter of the 929.9 billion won on July 31.Analysts indicate that after raising the margin threshold, the effect of restricting speculative capital inflow has begun to show, and the trading pattern of retail investors continuously buying leveraged products during declines in the underlying stocks is changing.

South Korea plans to grant financial regulatory agencies "emergency intervention rights" and is considering limiting the leverage multiples and investment amounts for single-stock leveraged ETFs

According to NATE, South Korea's financial regulatory authorities are advancing the revision of the Capital Markets Act, planning to grant regulators the "emergency intervention rights" to directly take market stabilization measures during periods of severe stock market fluctuations.Currently, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea has initiated relevant legal amendments with the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), focusing on single-stock leveraged ETF products that are believed to amplify volatility during the recent stock market crash. Proposed regulatory measures include adjusting leverage multiples and setting investment limits.In cases of abnormal market fluctuations, the aim is to reduce the risks associated with concentrated trading of funds. Additionally, South Korea's financial regulatory authorities are considering setting personal investment limits for single-stock leveraged ETFs, standardizing the investment cap at around 20% to prevent excessive concentration of funds, and introducing a simulated trading system to enhance investors' understanding of the risks associated with leveraged products.South Korean regulators stated that the increase in the basic margin is primarily aimed at raising the investment threshold, while the investment limit effectively sets an "upper limit" on fund inflows, with both measures forming a complementary risk control system.Previously, South Korea had raised the minimum margin requirement for investors in single-stock leveraged ETFs from 10 million won to 30 million won starting July 31.Data shows that on the first day of the new regulations, the trading volume of 16 related leveraged ETFs was approximately 3 trillion won, only about a quarter of the previous trading day's 12.4 trillion won, and a decrease of about 80% compared to the 15 trillion won level on July 29.

hot_img A trader in Hong Kong embezzled HKD 50 million in margin for leveraged stock trading and was arrested after reporting a loss of HKD 150 million

According to Tencent News "Frontline," a 26-year-old male employee of Hong Kong Central Wealth Management Services Limited misappropriated 50 million Hong Kong dollars as margin without authorization, using it to finance the purchase of a double long position in the Southern Eastern Ying Hynix ETF (07709.HK), resulting in a paper loss of up to 150 million Hong Kong dollars. The trader was arrested by the police on July 20 on suspicion of "theft," with the incident occurring from January 9 to July 20.Financial analysts in Hong Kong stated that the reason the 50 million principal turned into a 150 million loss was due to the combination of margin financing and the double leverage of the long ETF. This ETF surged to a historical high of 193.65 Hong Kong dollars at the end of June, driven by the storage chip concept, but then the semiconductor sector sharply corrected, falling to 52.58 Hong Kong dollars by July 20, a decline of over 72%. The police revealed that the relevant positions had not yet been forcibly liquidated, and the final loss would still fluctuate with the stock price. The incident was discovered during a recent audit of the company, which reported it to the police. Central Wealth Management is not a licensed company by the Securities and Futures Commission, and Central Wealth Securities stated that the involved personnel are not their employees and are unrelated to the incident, but after the event, some clients exhibited risk-averse withdrawals.

South Korea raises the deposit threshold for single stock leveraged ETFs to 30 million won, effective from the 31st

According to the Korea Herald, the Financial Services Commission, the Financial Supervisory Service, and the exchange have decided that starting from July 31, the minimum deposit requirement for single stock leveraged ETFs and ETNs will be raised from 10 million KRW (approximately 51,000 USD) to 30 million KRW (approximately 153,000 USD), and only cash will be accepted; stocks, bonds, and other securities will no longer be recognized as collateral. The new regulations apply to both domestic and overseas listed products, and existing investors must also meet the requirements when making additional purchases, but there are no restrictions on selling. In addition, the funds from sales can only be counted as deposits after 2 business days following settlement, and loans secured by the sale proceeds will not count as deposits.The product was launched on May 27, involving 16 underlying assets, with an initial market value of approximately 4.4 trillion KRW, which has expanded to 11.9 trillion KRW as of July 15. Daily trading volume increased from 10.4 trillion KRW on the day of listing to about 13 trillion KRW. Previously, South Korea had suspended the listing of new products and prohibited related advertisements starting from July 16, tightening the discount rate management standard from 3% to 2%. Market rumors suggest that regulators are also considering reducing the number of liquidity providers, widening the bid-ask spread, and lowering the leverage ratio from 2 times to around 1.5 times.

hot_img The South Korean Financial Commission responds to the controversy over single-stock leveraged ETFs: there is indeed an effect in preventing capital outflow, but it is not the main cause of stock market volatility

The Financial Services Commission of South Korea responded positively to the recent controversies surrounding single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) when it released supplementary regulatory measures. Byeon Je-ho, the Director of the Capital Markets Bureau of the Financial Services Commission, clearly stated that launching leveraged ETF products targeting single stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the domestic market has indeed had a significant effect in locking in domestic investment demand and preventing capital outflow to overseas leveraged markets like Hong Kong or the United States.In response to external accusations that single-stock leveraged ETFs are the "main culprit" behind the recent increase in volatility in the South Korean stock market, the Financial Services Commission refuted this claim. Byeon Je-ho pointed out that the recent dramatic market fluctuations cannot be solely explained by leveraged ETFs, with the core reason being the alternating expectations of the global semiconductor industry cycle. Data shows that from May 26 to July 10, the annualized daily return volatility of U.S. SanDisk (131%), Micron (123%), and Japan's Kioxia (118%) was higher than that of South Korea's SK Hynix (113%) and Samsung Electronics (96%). Additionally, some investors' contrarian operations have played a role in stabilizing stock prices to some extent.Regarding the demands from some politicians and market participants to "forcefully delist single-stock leveraged ETFs," the Financial Services Commission clearly rejected this request. The official explanation stated that delisting must meet statutory termination criteria such as a sharp decline in market value or a lack of liquidity providers (LPs), and currently, the market is showing signs of heating up due to excessive demand, which does not meet the delisting conditions. The Financial Services Commission indicated that such calls should be understood as the market's urgent expectation for strengthened compliance and robust regulatory measures.
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