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DOGE $0.0817 -3.76%
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BCH $244.56 -0.70%
LINK $11.13 -2.28%
HYPE $80.28 -3.47%
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ZEC $831.72 -0.28%

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first_img VanEck Research Director: Bitcoin Can Perform Well Under Democratic Governance

Matthew Sigel, the Head of Digital Asset Research at the asset management company VanEck, stated on CNBC that Bitcoin does not need a Republican president to perform well, and former President Biden is not anti-Bitcoin. Sigel pointed out that despite Republicans repeatedly criticizing Democrats for being anti-cryptocurrency, and the regulatory agencies under the Biden administration suing digital asset companies, Bitcoin can still develop healthily under Democratic governance.Sigel also discussed the delay in the legislation of the Clarity Act, which aims to establish a classification framework for digital assets and clarify the regulatory jurisdiction over securities, commodities, or payment stablecoins. Some Republican senators accused Democrats of delaying the legislation, while Coinbase's Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad believes that the opposition mainly comes from older Democrats, and the younger generation better understands technological changes, making cryptocurrency potentially the most bipartisan issue in Washington.Recently, Bitcoin has shown strong price performance, rising nearly 24% in the past seven days, reaching as high as $81,160, and currently retreating to about $78,438. Previously, the Trump administration promoted the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and issued several executive orders supporting cryptocurrency.

first_img Tomasz Tunguz: AI infrastructure exhibits a long tail effect, with bottlenecks gradually transmitting and driving up costs

Venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz pointed out that the narrative of AI infrastructure resembles a slow relay race, with bottlenecks sequentially transmitting from GPUs to memory, CPUs, and storage, each link freezing the supply chain of the next for years and locking in higher baseline costs. At the beginning of 2023, the GPU shock caused H100 rental prices to exceed $9 per hour, and server shipments fell by 22%; subsequently, manufacturers shifted capacity to HBM, leading to an 80% quarterly increase in enterprise SSD prices and over a 60% rise in DRAM.By the end of 2025, the workload of intelligent agents will push the CPU to GPU ratio to about 1:1, with the average price of server CPUs rising by 27% year-on-year; in 2026, nearline HDD annual capacity will be sold out. The construction cost of data centers has risen to about $20 billion per gigawatt, with orders for long-cycle equipment such as transformers and turbines scheduled as far out as 2029 to 2031.Tunguz referred to this as the long whip effect in the hardware sector: years of manufacturing delays amplify downstream demand shocks upstream, and when pressure is relieved at a certain bottleneck, it will be delayed in transmitting to the next link, with transformers scheduled for delivery in 2027 to 2028, NAND wafer fabs, and turbine production lines potentially facing the risk of overcapacity.

VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.
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