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BTC $66,999.78 -2.79%
ETH $1,949.22 -3.10%
BNB $600.37 -4.70%
XRP $1.37 -3.62%
SOL $80.91 -4.09%
TRX $0.2746 -0.73%
DOGE $0.0903 -3.55%
ADA $0.2555 -2.82%
BCH $514.57 -1.09%
LINK $8.30 -2.87%
HYPE $28.72 -3.83%
AAVE $105.71 -2.81%
SUI $0.8965 -4.66%
XLM $0.1540 -1.76%
ZEC $228.11 -4.88%

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Benson Sun: Bitcoin's decline reached a rare -5.65σ, occurring only 4 times in history

Cryptocurrency KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun posted that Bitcoin experienced an extreme drop this morning. Calculating with a 200-day lookback period, BTC's decline reached -5.65 standard deviations (σ). The Six Sigma standard in manufacturing allows for only 3.4 defects per million occurrences, which defines "almost impossible" in human industrial civilization. Yesterday's BTC volatility was just 0.35 standard deviations away from this "industrial-grade impossibility."A -5.65σ occurrence has a theoretical probability of about one in ten million under normal distribution. Despite the fat tail effect in financial markets, this level of volatility has only occurred 4 times since BTC began trading in July 2010, accounting for about 0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear phases of 2018 and 2022, such a rapid decline had not occurred within a rolling 200-day period. This poses a severe challenge to quantitative strategies.Currently, most quantitative models are built on data after 2015, and historical samples exceeding 5.65σ, apart from the anomalous "312" flash crash in 2020, occurred before 2015, leaving almost no reference precedent.CoinKarma's quantitative strategy has shown a paper loss in this round of market conditions, but due to maintaining low leverage (about 1.4 times) over the long term, it remains manageable, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%. While extreme market conditions are an expensive "tuition," contracts and on-chain data will become important nutrients for future risk control models.

Data: Aave becomes the first DeFi lending protocol in history to surpass a 50% market share, with a current TVL of $3.583 billion

According to DefiLlama data, Aave's share in the DeFi lending market has surpassed 51.3%, marking the first time since 2020 that a single protocol's usage rate has exceeded 50%.The top 10 lending protocols by TVL ranking are as follows: Aave currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $3.583 billion, accounting for about 51.3% market share; Morpho currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $686.1 million, accounting for about 9.8% market share; JustLend currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $401.5 million, accounting for about 5.8% market share; SparkLend currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $381.1 million, accounting for about 5.5% market share; Maple currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $272.4 million, accounting for about 3.9% market share; Kamino Lend currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $240.2 million, accounting for about 3.4% market share; Compound Finance currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $205.1 million, accounting for about 2.9% market share; Venus currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $179.9 million, accounting for about 2.6% market share; Fluid Lending currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $154.5 million, accounting for about 2.2% market share; Jupiter Lend currently has a DeFi lending TVL of approximately $113.1 million, accounting for about 1.6% market share.
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