ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, JPMorgan analysts stated in a mid-year outlook research report on Wednesday that U.S. tariff policies could weigh on global economic growth and reignite inflation in the U.S. The bank believes there is a 40% chance that the U.S. will fall into recession in the second half of this year. It forecasts a U.S. economic growth rate of 1.3% in 2025, down from an earlier prediction of 2%. "The stagflation effect brought about by tariff increases is the reason we have downgraded our GDP growth expectations for this year," the report said.JPMorgan is bearish on the dollar, citing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, while policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including emerging market currencies. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between December and spring 2026. Analysts stated that if a recession occurs or the economic slowdown exceeds expectations, it would trigger a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. However, the bank remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, arguing that despite policy uncertainties, consumers and the economy still show resilience.

ChainCatcher message, collected by former Wall Street Journal economic reporter Jon Hilsenrath, shows that former Federal Reserve officials and staff expect the unemployment rate and inflation to rise in the coming months, which could complicate the Fed's judgment on interest rate decisions. Respondents indicated that they expect the Fed to maintain expectations for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, although many former officials believe that cutting rates only once or even not at all may be more appropriate.The release of this survey's results comes just as the Fed is set to hold a policy meeting this week, during which Fed officials will unveil economic forecasts. This will be the first time the Fed has released economic forecasts since Trump announced a broad import tariff policy. The federal budget bill currently moving through Congress may also become one of the important considerations for the Fed's decision-making this week.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 105 economists, 59 believe the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts next quarter (possibly in September), with more than 60% of economists predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice this year; the surveyed economists expect the U.S. economy to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026 (the same as the May forecast).

ChainCatcher news, according to official website data, the probability of predicting "the U.S. economy will enter a recession by 2025" on Polymarket has reached 26%, having previously risen to 66% on March 2, with a cumulative trading volume exceeding 6.6 million dollars.

ChainCatcher message, Trump stated in a post on his Truth platform that the U.S. economy is thriving thanks to tariffs.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated, "If other countries are allowed to impose tariffs on us, and we are not allowed to quickly and flexibly retaliate against them with tariffs, our country will have no chance of even the slightest economic survival."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. bank analysts pointed out that compared to other countries and currencies, U.S. tariffs have a more significant negative impact on the U.S. economy and the dollar. The bank believes that tariffs may trigger retaliatory measures, and the scale of U.S. trade with the world exceeds that of other countries' trade with the U.S., making it more vulnerable to shocks.Data will determine the fate of the dollar: if U.S. economic indicators improve, investors may begin to ignore policy noise and support the dollar; however, Bank of America expects the data to be weak, as policy uncertainty has led to stagnation in corporate hiring and investment plans, compounded by persistently high tariffs. In addition, fiscal easing may push up borrowing costs.

ChainCatcher news, Barclays Bank stated in a report released on Thursday evening that the likelihood of the U.S. economy falling into recession this year has significantly decreased due to signs of easing tensions in U.S.-China trade. As a result, the bank has raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth.Barclays now expects the U.S. economy to grow by 0.5% this year and 1.6% in 2026, both higher than the previous forecasts of -0.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, as uncertainty decreases and the overall economic environment improves, Barclays has also raised its growth expectations for the Eurozone.The Eurozone is now expected to achieve zero growth this year, better than the previous forecast of a contraction of 0.2%. However, the Eurozone may still experience a technical recession in the second half of this year, although the extent of the recession is expected to be smaller than previously anticipated. "Overall, we remain cautious about the growth outlook for the Eurozone, as current uncertainty remains high, negotiations between the U.S. and Europe regarding reciprocal tariffs are still at a technical level, and there are no signs of progress."

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs economists pointed out in a report that their fundamental judgment on the U.S. economy still supports the core view that "short-term U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and the yield curve will eventually steepen." However, if there is a lack of solid economic data to support expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market's pricing for rate cuts may continue to weaken in the short term."If, in the current environment of high inflation and with economic data not deteriorating enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the market's confidence in the space for rate cuts gradually fades, then as government debt continues to accumulate, the term premium may face greater upward pressure, thereby pushing yields higher."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Swiss private bank economist David Kohl stated that the U.S. economy shows almost no signs of weakness. After the release of the non-farm payroll report in April, he said: "The unstable and restrictive economic policies in the U.S., including the introduction of high tariffs, have not yet had the expected negative impact on labor market data." The economist pointed out that better-than-expected job growth and low unemployment rates have driven sustained strong growth in private consumption.Kohl added that the data is very solid, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates this week. Kohl said that the Fed might ignore negative data from survey indicators and wait until economic data shows weakness before taking action.

ChainCatcher news, ARK Invest released its latest market commentary stating that the U.S. economy has undergone a "rolling recession" for three years, and this phase may come to an end against the backdrop of weakening high-end consumption and government spending.ARK expects that in the next three to six months, as tariffs, taxes, regulations, and monetary policy become clearer, the U.S. economy will enter a recovery phase driven by productivity improvements, potentially initiating a broader and structurally healthier bull market.The report notes that current valuations of innovative assets are in the "deep value" range, with platforms such as artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multi-omics being the main beneficiaries.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs economists predict that due to tariffs and policy uncertainty putting pressure on the economy, the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter will grow only 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, business and consumer surveys indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has not yet shown signs of this. They infer that economic indicators may begin to more clearly reflect a recession in the late summer. "The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the previous 'event-driven' growth slowdown. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data."

ChainCatcher news, according to official website data, the probability of predicting "the U.S. economy entering a recession by 2025" on Polymarket is 58%.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that despite increasing uncertainty, downside risks still exist, and the U.S. economy remains "robust." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news indicates that during the early trading session, the Japanese yen strengthened against the currencies of 10 G7 countries and Asian currencies. Ray Attrill, an analyst at the National Australia Bank, commented that the U.S. will announce a 90-day suspension of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff rate, which "does not help alleviate concerns about the U.S. potentially falling into recession." "With risk aversion returning, there is no support for the dollar." Attrill added that the yen and Swiss franc appear to be the "only true safe havens" in the forex market.

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressed concerns about the Trump administration's tariff policies in an interview.He pointed out that these policies would not only weaken the value of the dollar but also plunge the U.S. economy into a recession. Fink stated that most CEOs he has spoken with believe that the U.S. "may be in a recession."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that the probability of an economic recession reflected by stocks closely related to the U.S. economy has surged to nearly 80%.At the same time, despite potential increased funding pressure, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan's market-based economic recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has been severely impacted in the recent sell-off, currently reflects a recession probability of 79%. Other asset classes are also issuing warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a recession probability of 62%, basic metals indicate a probability of 68%, and the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond corresponds to a probability of 54%. In contrast, the probability of an economic recession reflected by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, while this probability was zero last November.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs: Downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 0.5% and raised the 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, due to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, foreign consumer resistance, and a continued surge in policy uncertainty, which could suppress capital spending, potentially exceeding our previous assumptions.