winter

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute holds approximately 87.34 million USD in open positions on Hyperliquid, with short positions around 75.45 million USD, accounting for 86.4%; long positions around 11.89 million USD, accounting for 13.6%.Current floating profit is approximately 3.97 million USD, with a historical cumulative profit of about 209.79 million USD. Its largest short positions include approximately 18.33 million USD in ETH, approximately 12.07 million USD in SOL, and approximately 10.72 million USD in SP500.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past 12 hours, 5 newly created wallets received 1,162 Bitcoins from Wintermute, worth 96.77 million dollars. Lookonchain stated that this may indicate that a certain whale purchased the aforementioned Bitcoins through Wintermute.

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials expect another interest rate hike within the year, with the market pricing in a roughly 20% probability of a rate increase by the end of October. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.24%. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% last week, reaching a historic high, while the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. The rise in U.S. stocks was supported by expectations of corporate earnings growth, while the cryptocurrency market lacked similar earnings support and relied more on new capital inflows.As capital flows reversed, the cryptocurrency assets' sustained upward momentum over the previous six weeks became difficult to maintain. Bitcoin fell back from around $86,000 to $87,000 last week, dipping to about $80,400 on Thursday before rebounding above $83,000 and regaining the range high of $82,500. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million last week, the largest single-week outflow since late June, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of about $542 million.The cryptocurrency market has lost the support of capital inflows, while U.S. stocks still have earnings growth as a cushion. Therefore, in the short term, the market outlook will only remain optimistic if long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF funds turn back to net inflows. Before these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset that is more sensitive to U.S. stock volatility and has higher downside risks, making it inadvisable to chase low-quality altcoins. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above the 5.64% reached on September 30, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance around $82,500, Wintermute will adopt a cautious stance. This week, attention should be focused on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether energy inflation is spreading to core inflation, as well as the financial performance of financial institutions and AI-related companies.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute sold 619.59 BTC through Binance, worth 51.7 million USD.Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT ETF purchased and received 1,426.47 BTC from Coinbase Prime, worth 119 million USD.

During an interview with The Starting Block at the Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia, Brian Smith, the president of Jito Foundation, the parent company of the Solana ecosystem trading platform JTX, stated that JTX plans to launch stock trading features within the next two weeks and will release a native mobile app later this fall. The integration of perpetual contracts "may take until later this winter." He mentioned that the team is currently focusing on differentiating the spot trading features.JTX launched in July this year, supporting spot trading for cbBTC, SOL, HYPE, and meme coins, while also offering tokenized stocks and ETFs. The platform charges a fee for each transaction, with 80% of the revenue allocated to Jito DAO for the buyback and destruction of JTO tokens, and 20% distributed to referrers. Smith did not disclose the trading volume since the launch but emphasized the speed of product iteration, stating that the team has two full-time data scientists mining on-chain data to develop in-app discovery features.Smith positioned JTX as a "permissionless Robinhood" for Solana, emphasizing longer holding periods and competitive rates, and noted that other Solana applications tend to focus on early meme coin trading. Regarding perpetual contracts, he acknowledged that Solana "has a lot of work to do" and affirmed Hyperliquid's role in pushing centralized exchange traders on-chain, while stating that Solana is the "king" in the spot trading space.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua published an article discussing the current state of the cryptocurrency primary market. He stated that the main reasons for the decline of the cryptocurrency primary market are: "First, the narrative has collapsed; from white papers to institutional endorsements to TVL manipulation, the basic market is no longer buying in. Second, there is a supply imbalance; now there are tens of thousands of projects, and it is extremely difficult for excellent projects to emerge. Third, the 1 plus 3 unlocking mechanism essentially targets VCs, allowing projects, market makers, and exchanges to run first. Fourth, the cost of listing coins; now primary projects require high valuations and large financing mainly because of several leading centralized exchanges going live, with an average cost needing tens of millions of dollars."Yi Lihua believes that industry leaders need to truly focus on building, such as improving the coin listing selection method on Binance. Under the current model, even if Vitalik Buterin's ETH were to come today, it would not be able to list on Binance. Additionally, the 1 plus 3 unlocking mechanism should be completely abolished; VCs bear the greatest risk and should not be burdened with the worst unlocking terms, as the success or failure of a project is fundamentally not determined by VCs.Finally, cryptocurrency projects need to return to real revenue and buybacks. The sustained prosperity of the U.S. stock market over the years is primarily due to performance growth and the encouragement of shareholder returns. This is what industry leaders should be doing, allowing secondary market investors to truly find quality projects.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that Canary has just revised the Pepe ETF application documents again, which may be another sign that the crypto winter has ended. A few months ago, the market wouldn't even consider launching the Pepe ETF, but now the market feels safer for testing.

Wintermute posted that, on the macro front, risk assets continued to rise last week. Even with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%, a high not seen since 2007, there was no significant risk-averse sentiment in the market. Crypto assets led the way, with altcoins rising approximately 5%, followed closely by BTC, and the Nasdaq also recorded gains, while long-term U.S. Treasuries performed the weakest.The report believes that oil prices will be a key factor influencing the interest rate hike expectations for October. Currently, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude prices nearing $103 per barrel. If oil prices continue to stay around or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another rate hike in October may remain high, at which point the core issue will shift to whether risk assets can absorb further rate hikes in the short term while bonds remain under pressure.In the crypto market, BTC last week first stood above the 50-week moving average on a weekly basis, with the current level of $82,500 being the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, which is also a key position to watch this week; if this level can stabilize, it may become the foundation for the previous breakout; otherwise, a drop below this level will reignite concerns about the validity of the breakout. Meanwhile, BTC's market share has increased, the breadth of altcoin gains is at a relatively high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase with low Delta bullish options and call spreads being added for year-end positioning.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the market maker Wintermute currently holds a short position of 126.25 million USD on the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid.The main positions include: ETH short of 46.92 million USD, SOL short of 11.3 million USD, HYPE short of 10.03 million USD.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the FTX / Alameda Research asset liquidation team transferred 27,372 ETH to Wintermute through 6 wallets 3 hours ago, worth 75.32 million USD, suspected to be entrusted to Wintermute for sale. The related address is 0xCe84...f228.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, after HYPE broke through 97.5 USD, Wintermute has begun to transfer HYPE tokens in large quantities to major centralized exchanges.

Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute (0xecb...2b00) currently holds a short position in perpetual contracts worth 160 million USD, with an unrealized loss of 3.57 million USD.Among them, the short position in ETH is worth 53.05 million USD, the short position in BTC is worth 26.66 million USD, the short position in SOL is worth 17.84 million USD, and the short position in HYPE is worth 11.62 million USD; the trading volume in the last 30 days is 16.91 billion USD.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute transferred approximately 2,550 bitcoins to Binance, worth about 192.91 million USD.

According to OnchainLens monitoring, after the "CLARITY Act" failed to advance this morning, the market maker Wintermute began to realize short profits. The short exposure decreased from 102.1 million dollars to 55.54 million dollars, and the unrealized profit and loss increased from 928,000 dollars to 2.28 million dollars.Its ETH short position also decreased from 15,330 coins (approximately 38.47 million dollars) to 7,810 coins (approximately 18.72 million dollars), with a cumulative profit of 179.89 million dollars.

According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, the BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of $463 million, marking the first negative value since the low in June, with ARK and Grayscale accounting for a combined outflow of $371 million, while BlackRock remained flat. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% over the week, closing at $76,838, making it the worst-performing asset, while Ethereum dropped 1.5%, and altcoins overall rose by 1%.On a macro level, the U.S. August CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (core 0.3%), higher than the expected 0.2%, and the PPI annual rate reached 5.4%, prompting Goldman Sachs to change its September forecast from "hold steady" to "raise interest rates." The market's expectation for a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday has risen to 87%. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with Brent crude oil surpassing $105 per barrel, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting a 20-year high.Wintermute stated that after the ETF fund outflow turned negative, it tends to hold a neutral rather than bullish stance on the market. This week has two key events: ① On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (the cryptocurrency market structure bill), which requires 60 votes to pass; ② On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the rate hike itself already priced in, but subsequent hawkish statements (especially signals regarding continued rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027) may pose downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute currently holds approximately 102.1 million USD in perpetual contract short positions and continues to deposit more funds to increase its short exposure.Data shows that its total exposure is 122.23 million USD, with unrealized profits of about 928,400 USD, a loss of 12.04 million USD in the past 30 days, and a historical cumulative profit of approximately 176.88 million USD from perpetual contracts. Among them, the largest position is a short position of 15,330 ETH, valued at about 38.47 million USD.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Wintermute (0xf819...73AA) deposited 61,847 ETH to Binance and Coinbase in the past 3 hours, worth 160.3 million USD.