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Grayscale: The increase in Bitcoin's price is highly concentrated on a few trading days, and staying out also carries an opportunity cost

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past three years, Bitcoin's cumulative return rate was approximately 225%, while the Nasdaq index's return rate was 109%. However, Bitcoin's rise was not evenly distributed, with a few of the strongest trading days contributing significantly to long-term returns, increasing the difficulty for investors to time their entry.Data shows that if the five best trading days for Bitcoin are excluded, its three-year cumulative return rate would drop from 225% to 95%; excluding the best ten trading days, the return rate falls to 27%; and if the best fifteen trading days are missed, the three-year return would turn into a loss of 11%. In contrast, the return distribution of the Nasdaq is more balanced; after excluding the best fifteen trading days, the cumulative return rate drops from 109% to 21%.Grayscale indicated that during this period, less than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains that, when excluded, would reduce Bitcoin's cumulative return by more than half. For assets with high return and high volatility characteristics, staying out also carries an opportunity cost; since the best trading days are difficult to predict reliably, waiting for volatility to decrease or for market prospects to become clearer may mean that some price re-evaluations have already been completed.

first_img Ethereum's increase in the third quarter surpassed Bitcoin, but its liquidity has clearly narrowed compared to Bitcoin

According to a report by CoinGecko, Ethereum's native token ETH outperformed Bitcoin in the third quarter, with a price increase of 70%, surpassing Bitcoin's 42% increase. However, during the same period, ETH's liquidity significantly narrowed compared to Bitcoin.From July 6 to September 30, the average daily market median depth of ETH was only 35% to 45% of Bitcoin's, while it was at least 60% during the same period last year. Market depth measures the total dollar value of buy and sell orders within a certain price range. The depth of ETH within a 0.15% price range was between 13 million to 14 million dollars. CoinGecko stated that ETH still maintained good liquidity in this range, with most exchanges having both buy and sell side depths exceeding 1 million dollars.The liquidity of other mainstream tokens is also thinning. Solana's SOL saw its depth within a 2% price range drop from about 28 million dollars per side last year to about 20 million dollars this year. XRP's total depth remained stable at around 30 million dollars, but the order book was biased towards buyers, with buy orders around 18 million dollars and sell orders around 14 million dollars. CoinGecko pointed out that XRP's market capitalization is about 40% higher than SOL, but the depth within the 2% price range is lower because SOL's average daily trading volume is still 25% higher than XRP.

first_img Arrakis: On-chain dollar yield RWA buyers primarily use crypto-native funds

On-chain liquidity protocol Arrakis Finance released a study tracking the on-chain buying records of 10 tokenized dollar yield products, using Ethena's sUSDe as a benchmark. The study covered 71,697 buyers with a total buying amount of 91.3 billion dollars. Of the 12.4 billion dollars in categorized demand, about two-thirds came from protocols and DAO treasuries, while the remainder came from individuals, exchanges, market makers, and crypto funds, with no purchases clearly traceable to traditional financial institutions such as pensions, asset management firms, or banks.Wallets with single purchases of 1 million dollars or more accounted for about 4% of buyers but held approximately 93% of the funds; among them, 2,586 buyers contributed over 90% of the nominal purchase amount. The median purchase amount for institutional buyers of Centrifuge's JAAA was about 29.1 million dollars, nearly three times that of the next product. About 80%, totaling 17.4 billion dollars, was settled in USDC, while USDT accounted for about 4.4 billion dollars, almost all of which was used for syrupUSDT. Primary subscriptions were the main pathway, with secondary market purchases accounting for less than 6%, and only sUSDe had 55% obtained through decentralized exchanges.The median first activity time for buyer wallets concentrated around mid-2024, described as new entrants of crypto-native funds. By time zone, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa accounted for 42%, Asia-Pacific for 40%, and the Americas for 18%. After tracing back two hops for 5.17 billion dollars of unmarked institutional-level funds, exchange sources accounted for 40% (Binance 1.12 billion dollars, Coinbase 970 million dollars), DeFi native funds accounted for 38%, and another 22% could not be identified.

first_img Spanish police arrested a 16-year-old boy involved in operating the KillSec ransomware group

According to Decrypt, the European Union's law enforcement agency reported that Spanish police arrested a 16-year-old Romanian suspect in Alicante, suspected of being an administrator and main operator of the ransomware group KillSec.Two other suspects in their twenties were arrested in the UK and Romania, respectively; another developer who just turned 18 in August this year has been identified but has not been arrested due to some crimes occurring during their minor years.This operation, codenamed Operation KillSwitch, was led by the Hamburg State Criminal Police and the city's prosecution office, focusing on approximately 1,000 suspected attacks worldwide, with about 500 confirmed as successful intrusions.Law enforcement searched eight locations in Spain, Greece, Romania, and the UK, seized five central servers, and redirected related domain names to seizure announcement pages, while also confiscating at least 110 TB of stolen data.KillSec has been active since around 2024, exploiting software vulnerabilities and poorly secured cloud storage entry points to infiltrate corporate systems, copying internal data and naming victim organizations on dark web leak sites, threatening to publicly release documents to demand cryptocurrency ransoms, and if the target refuses to pay, they release the data for free.The Swiss Federal Police noted that the group also employed double extortion tactics, first encrypting servers and then applying pressure. U.S. prosecutors' charges indicate that a Dutch national residing in the UK, Fouad Eltibrizi (nicknamed Archduke), was indicted by a federal grand jury in Puerto Rico on September 16, subsequently arrested, and awaiting extradition, facing up to 10 years in prison. The European Cybercrime Centre, under the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation, is assisting in tracing cryptocurrency funds and conducting digital forensics.

first_img XRP Ledger carries the Brazilian CSD BR fund records, involving approximately 4 trillion USD in assets

The regulated operator responsible for the registration, securities custody, and settlement system of the Brazilian financial market, CSD BR, has begun to record the ownership of shares in certain investment funds under BTG Pactual, mirroring them to the public XRP Ledger. CSD BR manages registered assets exceeding 22 trillion Brazilian Reais, approximately 4 trillion US dollars. Its existing database still serves as the official record for registration, custody, and settlement, and the relevant assets have not been transferred to the XRP Ledger; fund shares will be presented in token form on the XRPL.This blockchain copy aims to allow approved banks and institutions to verify ownership changes in real-time, replacing post-reconciliation, reducing the slow and costly verification process, while retaining identity checks and regulatory controls. Anyone can read the token circulation on the XRPL, but CSD BR still controls who has the right to hold and transfer these tokens. The tokens adopt the multi-purpose token standard of the XRP Ledger, allowing issuers to restrict participants and freeze assets or revoke transactions upon regulatory or court requests, while participants still need to pass identity and anti-money laundering checks.The project starts with real fund records, distinguishing it from previous pilots that used test assets or closed networks. CSD BR was established in 2018 and is authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil and the securities regulatory authority. After becoming familiar with the mirroring system, CSD BR and Ripple plan to test the direct issuance of assets on the XRP Ledger and allow approved participants to trade, with potential targets including Brazilian real estate receivables and agricultural receivables.
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