bets

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of the U.S. March CPI data, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year have increased.

According to the WSJ, just hours after President Trump suddenly announced a suspension of attacks on Iran last month, the White House warned staff not to abuse their power to place bets in prediction markets at the right moment. According to informed sources, the Office of Management and Budget issued this warning on March 23.Earlier that day, Trump announced the decision to suspend airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden policy shift, there was a wave of mysterious trading activity in the futures market, with Dow Jones market data showing that contracts worth over $760 million in oil futures changed hands in less than two minutes.Recently, three accounts on the Polymarket platform profited over $600,000 by accurately predicting the timing of this week's ceasefire in Iran. Critics of Trump, including many Democrats, immediately inferred that someone had profited from having advance knowledge of the policy shift.The White House confirmed the authenticity of this warning, with Trump's spokesperson Engel stating, "The only special interest that can guide President Trump's decision-making is the best interest of the American people."

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 have decreased.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the company has established an internal venture capital program called "Next Bets," which allows employees to submit innovative projects and pitch directly to product leaders, and can proceed with implementation as long as they receive support. The program opens for proposals twice a year, typically executed by small teams of 2 to 3 people, focusing on high-potential directions.Armstrong mentioned that this mechanism aims to reduce the loss of excellent ideas and talent, inspired by historical cases in the tech industry. It was introduced that the Base blockchain project originated from this program, and more related developments will be announced in the coming weeks.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates have been withdrawn, and instead, the possibility of interest rate cuts this year is being priced in.

The Solana Foundation stated that it will position the Solana network as the core infrastructure of the emerging "agentic internet," where economic activities are initiated and executed by AI systems rather than humans.Vibhu Norby, Chief Product Officer of the Solana Foundation, stated at the New York Digital Assets Summit that AI is not a single vertical industry but a platform transformation that affects various sectors, including crypto. The strategic core of Solana is payment infrastructure, and the network has processed approximately 15 million on-chain payments initiated by agents, primarily for machine-to-machine commercial transactions. The programmatic nature of crypto payments is key to attracting agents, and stablecoins will become the default method for paying for any computational resources.Vibhu Norby believes this will fundamentally reshape internet business models, making micropayments and pay-per-use possible, which traditional payment channels cannot support. The Solana Foundation emphasizes that its high-performance design has advantages in this new paradigm: "Agents are calm, precise machines... If you ask agents how to use crypto payments, Solana often ranks as the preferred choice."Additionally, advancements in AI technology have lowered the development threshold, and Solana developers are directly building tools for AI systems, including machine-readable "skill" files and AI-first development platforms. Norby anticipates that in the future, user interactions with crypto will default to agents, with 95% to 99% of transactions initiated by large language models (LLMs).

According to Jinshi reports, traders further lowered their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026.

According to Jinshi News, the significant rise in oil prices this month and the market's adjustment of expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policy have resulted in a $10 million profit from a short-term interest rate options trade.This bet was placed in January in the form of options related to the secured overnight financing rate, which is closely tied to the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Last week, this bet gained traction as conflicts in the Middle East caused crude oil prices to rise to their highest level since 2022, raising concerns about inflation and prompting traders to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

According to the Nikkei Asia, Bhutan, once known as the "Kingdom of Happiness," is facing a severe outflow of young talent and a high unemployment rate.To revitalize the economy, the Bhutanese government is supporting a state-led Bitcoin mining initiative and promoting the "Gelephu Mindfulness City" special administrative zone project—this is a planned special zone centered around environmental protection, hoping to inject new momentum into national development through the cryptocurrency economy.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader named majorexploiter spent 4.53 million USDC 9 hours ago betting on Arsenal Football Club to win on March 1, 2026, and earned a profit of 2.42 million dollars.Data shows that he made 3 related bets in less than 3 days, all of which were profitable, with a total profit of approximately 3.67 million dollars.

According to Jinshi reports, last weekend, due to the closure of global traditional financial markets, a large amount of capital flowed into prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the subsequent impacts of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran through these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly evolved into a public opinion storm.On Saturday, a wave of skepticism emerged on the social platform X, accusing some insiders of profiting significantly in the prediction markets by leveraging their advance knowledge of military strikes. In response to the criticism, a White House spokesperson argued to the media that "the only special interest guiding the Trump administration's decisions is the best interest of the American people." In fact, actions against insider betting leveraging international conflicts have already been initiated in some regions around the world.In the face of accusations, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended that they would refund all fees incurred by users participating in the controversial markets, and positions established before Khamenei's death would be forcibly settled at the last trading price. However, this "forced liquidation" decision did not quell the storm; many users instead complained on social media that they had been misled by the platform.

With the U.S. Supreme Court rejecting President Trump's previous emergency tariff measures, Trump immediately announced the reactivation of a temporary tariff of up to 15% based on other trade laws, increasing trade uncertainty and putting pressure on risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.Data from the options trading platform Deribit shows a significant increase in open contracts for put options on Bitcoin with strike prices of $58,000, $60,000, and $62,000, indicating that traders are hedging potential downside risks by buying put options. Put options are typically used to provide protection when prices fall. Market analysis suggests that the repeated imposition of tariff policies, combined with macroeconomic uncertainty, may continue to exert pressure on risk assets, including crypto assets.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a Polymarket trader spent $2.34 million yesterday betting on the Seahawks to win the 2026 Super Bowl. Two hours ago, he redeemed $3.41 million, making a profit of $1.07 million.

In response to former Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani's view that "Hyperliquid embodies many of the worst issues in the crypto industry."BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes replied: "Since you say HYPE is bad, let's make a bet. I bet that from February 10, 2026, 00:00 (UTC) to July 31, 2026, 00:00 (UTC), HYPE's increase will surpass any altcoin with a market cap over $1 billion on CoinGecko (in USD). You can choose any coin you support as the opponent. The loser must donate $100,000 to a charity designated by the winner."

The founder and CEO of Gate, Dr. Han, expressed his views on the market positioning of gold and Bitcoin on platform X. Dr. Han pointed out that against the backdrop of rising global political and economic uncertainties, gold prices have reached new historical highs, and market volatility has significantly increased, with funds seeking certainty again.Dr. Han believes that although the market has long compared Bitcoin to gold, the two are fundamentally different. The reason gold continues to be allocated during turbulent periods is due to its repeatedly validated "safe lower bound" attribute over thousands of years; whereas Bitcoin has never been defined as a safe-haven asset, and its value logic is more reflected in betting on future growth potential.As the participation of traditional financial assets in the crypto market continues to rise, Gate has also accelerated its layout in the TradFi direction, gradually expanding trading categories such as precious metals, foreign exchange, indices, and stocks. According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of Gate XAUT (gold) contracts has exceeded $483 million, ranking third globally.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve remained on hold as expected. After the announcement of the decision, the rate futures contracts indicated that the possibility of a rate cut in April was 28%, slightly down from before; while the possibility of a rate cut in June rose to 64%, an increase from before, and there is a high likelihood of a second rate cut occurring within this year.

According to Jinshi News, an increasing number of options traders are ruling out expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, instead betting that it will keep rates unchanged throughout the year. This trend can be traced back at least to last Friday, when U.S. employment data showed an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate. Market pricing estimates have nearly eliminated the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.David Robin, interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services, pointed out that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at least until March has increased. New option positions are primarily concentrated in March and June contracts to hedge against the scenario of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut being delayed further.