bets

According to The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platform Kalshi is investigating betting activity related to "Trump's press secretary candidate" on its platform. Three bets, amounting to approximately $19, $74, and $80, appeared before the reports of Katie Zacharia being selected were published.The report states that the contract ultimately settled at "yes," but it remains unclear whether the related accounts are subject to withdrawal restrictions.

Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated during a panel discussion at the Token2049 conference with OKX CEO Star Xu that if the cryptocurrency industry wants to push for federal-level cryptocurrency legislation, it must maintain a balance between supporting the Democratic and Republican parties. He pointed out that the industry previously "believed that heavy investment in the Republican Party" would help pass the CLARITY Act, but "when you heavily invest in the Republican Party, you inherently alienate the Democratic Party."According to data tracked by Tech Influence Watch, cryptocurrency-related political action committees have spent $54.3 million supporting the Republican Party and $26.2 million supporting the Democratic Party in the 2026 election cycle, with an additional $23.2 million spent opposing Democratic candidates. Cuomo stated that passing legislation requires support from both the Democratic and Republican parties and should be more balanced. He also refuted the notion that the Democratic Party is inherently opposed to cryptocurrency, arguing that cryptocurrency is actually well-suited for the Democratic Party because it empowers individuals who previously could not access financial products. Prediction market Kalshi data shows that the probability of the Democratic Party winning both houses of Congress is about 61%.In terms of background, the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 with the support of 78 Democratic representatives and 216 Republican representatives, while 134 Democratic representatives voted against it; in June 2025, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act with support from 18 Democratic senators.

Market traders cut bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in October.

According to Fortune, the venture capital firm Solari Capital has officially announced its emergence from stealth mode. Founder AJ Scaramucci (son of Anthony Scaramucci) has deployed approximately $350 million since the company's inception, covering early-stage investments, late-stage growth rounds, and internal incubation businesses.Solari is focused on four major tracks centered around the core argument of "programmable reality": programmable intelligence (AI/large models, including xAI, Suno), programmable biology (gene therapy, longevity technology, including Tessera Therapeutics, Cambrian Bio), programmable materials (aerospace, energy, robotics, including Varda Space, Northwood Space), and programmable finance (blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, including Genius Terminal, Architect Financial). In addition, Scaramucci has included collectibles (comics, trading cards, dinosaur fossils) in the investment landscape, viewing them as "cultural value storage" assets alongside gold and Bitcoin, and claims that this market has a scale of $25 trillion, which has not yet been fully tapped by institutional capital.The investor lineup behind the company includes well-known Silicon Valley figures such as Ron Conway, Jim Breyer, and Eric Schmidt.

The Cyber Investigation Department of the Gangwon Special Self-Governing Province Police Agency in South Korea has identified 26 Polymarket users by analyzing public blockchain transaction records and on-chain open-source intelligence, and has filed cases against them for suspected illegal gambling. Among them, 18 have been referred to the prosecution, with a total bet amount of 12.7 million USD, and the highest single user bet reaching 4.1 million USD.The police launched a preliminary investigation in March and began filing cases against the involved individuals in May; the South Korean Communications Commission only ordered the blocking of Polymarket on August 18, and the transactions under investigation occurred while the platform was still accessible. The police are advancing the investigation based on Article 246 of the South Korean Criminal Code.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The latest dot plot shows that 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike by 2026, with the median rate expectations for 2027 and 2026 both at 4.1%.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that recent data shows the U.S. economy is performing strongly, and the labor market remains resilient, but inflation is too high and has persisted for too long. The FOMC is currently not confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. He mentioned that the main issue for the current economy is not growth, but inflation. Waller also noted that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by a strong U.S. economy, increased capital competition, and geopolitical factors.From the announcement of the decision to Waller's press conference, spot gold briefly fell by about $100, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 40 points and broke through the 100 mark, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield rose by about 5 basis points, with U.S. stocks turning lower across the board. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an additional rate hike of about 33 basis points this year and expect a cumulative increase of about 75 basis points by June next year.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the inflation data was released, as the market increased bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

After the release of U.S. data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell slightly, and the market increased its bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the US Dollar Index DXY rose sharply by 34 points, reaching 99.36 points. The market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September.

According to GMGN data, trader LaserCat previously invested about $10,700 betting on a bull market, currently with an unrealized profit of about $1,123,200, yielding a return of 10,467.74%.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating an increase in bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike following remarks by Fed Chair Waller.

Bankless cites Fundstrat's view that its ten-year vision for BitMNR is to bet on Ethereum becoming the dominant chain for tokenization and AI. Fundstrat states that it has bet on Ethereum becoming the place where a large number of related activities occur, and believes its legacy lies in helping Ethereum maintain its status as the most important public chain in the future.When discussing ETH performance, Fundstrat argues that it is a very reasonable point that ETH could flip Bitcoin's native narrative; if ETH reaches $50,000, $100,000, or $200,000, the returns for shareholders will be extremely substantial.

According to Forbes, blockchain pioneers Scott Stornetta and Stuart Haber have joined the prediction market platform SafeBets as advisors. The platform allows users to make predictions without investing real money, using free points instead, with correct predictions earning Unicoin token rewards. SafeBets positions its business as "market research" rather than betting, distinguishing itself from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi, which face legal risks.SafeBets Executive Director J. Tennyson Singer stated that the platform's long-term plan is to monetize users' collective prediction data by providing trading signals to affiliated brokerage firms, and it has already attracted thousands of participants for the World Cup events, with plans to expand into political prediction areas such as the U.S. elections.According to Unicoin Inc.'s quarterly report submitted to the SEC, SafeBets is wholly owned by Unicoin CEO Alex Konanykhin. Unicoin has been facing an SEC lawsuit since May 2025, accused of inflating fundraising amounts in token sales and falsely advertising its "SEC registered" status. Unicoin claims that the allegations are "baseless" and will actively defend itself. The Unicoin tokens awarded to users come from this litigated entity. Unicoin is currently conducting equity financing at a price of 25 cents per share, targeting $20 million.

Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75% in September is about 65%, up from about 60% before the release of the PPI report.

According to Jinshi, the Bank of England is investigating the rapid growth of investment banks operating in London with exposure to Asian stocks, as officials hope to avoid highly concentrated bets on a few companies related to artificial intelligence.Hedge funds and other institutional investors are rushing to invest in companies providing key infrastructure for the artificial intelligence semiconductor industry in Asia, such as SK Hynix and TSMC. The Bank of England is concerned that these stocks are gradually becoming an increasingly important part of the positions held by major brokers, with holdings highly concentrated in a few companies.

Binance is transforming from a cryptocurrency exchange into a payment-oriented super app, with stablecoins becoming its new growth engine and emerging market users as the core driving force.