conflict

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Daly stated that the economy has at least two potential development paths. Prolonged conflicts may exacerbate the trade-offs in monetary policy.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that if price pressures further intensify due to the Iran conflict, the European Central Bank will need to consider raising interest rates next month.

According to Jinshi reports, the Bank of Japan stated that the financial markets are experiencing unstable trends due to the conflict in the Middle East.

According to CoinDesk, affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell back to $72,300, with a 24-hour decline of about 2%. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP fell nearly 3%, putting overall pressure on risk assets.On the news front, U.S. President Trump sent a stronger signal regarding Iran, labeling it as the "number one supporter of terrorism" and hinting that the situation may escalate further. Meanwhile, incidents such as the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, Israel reportedly killing the Iranian intelligence minister, and the U.S. using heavy bombs to strike missile facilities near the Strait of Hormuz have intensified market tensions, pushing WTI crude oil prices up from about $92 to nearly $96.In terms of macro data, the U.S. PPI for February rose 0.7% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%; core PPI increased by 0.5%, also above expectations. Notably, this inflation data does not yet account for the recent surge in oil prices, further exacerbating market concerns about inflation stickiness and weakening expectations for interest rate cuts.Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market weakened in sync with U.S. stock futures, with the three major stock index futures turning from gains to declines of about 0.4%. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell's statements on growth risks and inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Trump has once again publicly called for interest rate cuts, adding a political variable to this meeting.

The probability of crude oil breaking $100 on Polymarket is currently reported at 63%, an increase of 43 points in the last 24 hours. In addition, the data shows:The probability of crude oil breaking $105/barrel on Polymarket is currently reported at 42%, a decrease of 19 points;The probability of crude oil breaking $110/barrel on Polymarket is currently reported at 27%, an increase of 10 points;The probability of crude oil breaking $120/barrel on Polymarket is currently reported at 16%.

According to market news, a hacker group in China has experienced internal strife due to disputes over the distribution of stolen goods. Members publicly revealed that they had stolen approximately $7 million in cryptocurrency assets through supply chain attacks, targeting platforms such as the cryptocurrency wallet Trust Wallet.According to the leaked information, the group operated under the name of the cybersecurity company Wuhan Anshun Technology, publicly engaging in activities such as vulnerability discovery, network offense and defense, and security services, while internally actually involved in activities related to the theft of cryptocurrency assets and other gray market operations. Team members claimed they obtained mnemonic phrases in bulk and scanned multi-chain assets, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, etc., through supply chain vulnerabilities in the Electron client, plugin reverse engineering, and automation tools.The whistleblower stated that the team had developed automated tools to scan mnemonic phrase assets in bulk and used remote control programs to steal wallet data, subsequently transferring and splitting the funds. The related attacks reportedly involved 37 types of tokens across multiple blockchain networks. The trigger for the exposure of this incident was an internal dispute over the distribution of stolen goods.The whistleblower claimed to have had conflicts with the team leader over unfair profit distribution and publicly presented relevant evidence after the promised severance compensation was not fulfilled, planning to turn themselves in to law enforcement. Currently, the related accusations have not been officially confirmed, and the details of the incident are still under further investigation. Industry insiders pointed out that this incident once again highlights the security risks of cryptocurrency wallet supply chains and plugins, as well as the trend of targeted attacks against high-value users.

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that for the week ending March 9, Polymarket and Kalshi set all-time highs in nominal trading volume, reaching $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively. Dune data indicates that the continued growth in trading activity has driven the total nominal trading volume of all prediction markets to $14.5 billion, with the number of unique users reaching 2.8 million.Meanwhile, U.S. Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the "DEATH BETS Act," which aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to explicitly prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and personal death. Previously, six Polymarket traders faced insider trading allegations after profiting $1 million from accurately betting on a U.S. attack on Iran.

According to Jinshi News, the US dollar rose to a three-and-a-half-month high against a basket of currencies, as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East prompted investors to seek safe havens and pushed up oil prices.In a report, Commerzbank analyst Falkmar Beutel stated that although the Iran conflict is nearing the end of its second week, there are still no signs of resolution. He pointed out that due to stronger economic growth in the US and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may delay expected rate cuts to address potential rising inflation, the dollar may strengthen in the short term.

10x Research posted on the X platform that the current price trend of Bitcoin is not primarily driven by negative news such as the Middle East conflict, but rather dominated by changes in market positioning structure.In the past two weeks, there has been a noticeable adjustment in the market positioning structure, and these changes are gradually encouraging traders to push Bitcoin towards the next phase of the market. A Bitcoin options trade proposed by the institution two weeks ago has now realized approximately +72% profit, and the technical structure continues to strengthen.Recently, the market has shown a series of attractive risk-reward signals. Although some traders are still puzzled by Bitcoin's resilience in the face of negative news, the market's sensitivity to news flow is currently decreasing, while the response to positioning, capital flow, and market structure is strengthening.By focusing on positioning, capital flow, and technical signals, rather than solely relying on news events, investors may be better positioned to judge the next moves of Bitcoin and make corresponding arrangements.

According to Jinshi News, analysts at Monex Europe stated in a report that the dollar may continue to find support in the short term unless there are credible signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. This conflict has driven safe-haven funds into the dollar, and the war has led to rising oil prices, reinforcing the market's view that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight policy for a longer period. However, in the long term, the market may be underestimating the potential extent of policy easing in the U.S. after concerns about energy prices subside, which means the dollar faces downside risks.

OKX Ventures has released data on social media indicating that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to an explosive increase in on-chain crude oil trading data. On Hyperliquid, the 24-hour trading volume of the CL-USDC perpetual contract, which tracks WTI oil prices, surged from an average of $21 million before the crisis to between $1.2 billion and $1.99 billion. At peak times, crude oil trading volume even surpassed Ethereum (ETH), becoming the second-largest asset by trading volume on the network.The trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) also saw a significant rise. According to Gate's data, the 24-hour trading volume of its Brent crude oil (XBR) contract skyrocketed by 951%, while the trading volume of the WTI crude oil (XTI) contract jumped nearly 397%. The inflow of funds and open interest (OI) data indicate that a large amount of institutional and retail capital is flooding into the market. Hyperliquid's crude oil OI is currently stable between $183 million and $290 million, suggesting that the funds are not only engaging in ultra-short-term speculation but are also establishing long-term macro hedging positions.Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market (which supports the listing of traditional financial assets without permission) has recently seen total open interest (OI) surpassing $1.2 billion, setting a new historical high.

According to Jin Ten, Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, stated that the February inflation data was originally heading in the right direction, but the emergence of the Middle East conflict has changed that trajectory. Energy, which could have brought about deflation, is now likely to lead to inflation. Due to the chaos in the fertilizer market, food prices may also begin to show signs of accelerating inflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to emphasize maintaining interest rates, but monetary policy cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so these tough statements are likely to be merely verbal.

The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a 20% disruption in global oil supply. Coupled with multiple pressures such as rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, geopolitical risk aversion has become the dominant theme in the market, with funds flowing into dollar assets in search of safety. According to data from the Gate platform, the USIDX (U.S. Dollar Index) reached a high of 99.001 USD in 24 hours, showing a high-level oscillating trend overall.Meanwhile, the performance of non-dollar currencies has significantly diverged. The euro and the pound are under pressure due to challenges from rising inflation expectations brought about by soaring energy prices, the yen's safe-haven properties continue to weaken, while the Canadian dollar remains relatively strong due to skyrocketing oil prices. Currently, Gate TradFi offers forex trading services covering 48 major currency pairs, with core currency pairs priced or settled in USD including EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar), USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen), GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar), USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc), and USDCNH (US Dollar/Offshore Chinese Yuan).In addition, Gate TradFi has officially launched traditional financial asset contracts for difference (CFD) trading services covering metals, forex, indices, commodities, and some popular stocks, with related features now integrated into the Gate App and Web platform.

Benoit Anne from MFS Investment Management stated in a report that, given the potential strength of the global economy, the threat of stagflation this time is far lower than after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The head of the company's market insights team noted that there are concerns in the market about a severe inflation shock following a significant surge in oil prices, "but currently we believe the risks of persistent inflation are not the same."He mentioned that it is reassuring that the inflation market seems to agree with this view. He pointed out that the one-year inflation breakeven rate in the U.S. appears to have broken upward, while longer-term rates such as the five-year and ten-year rates have not changed much.