consolidation

BIT released today's chart stating that the key to market analysis often lies in identifying the core factors driving asset price movements and observing when these factors begin to change.In the case of Bitcoin, the recent sustained rise has largely depended on the interplay between institutional demand and the market's available supply. Over the past year, spot Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have been significant sources of this demand. When ETF inflows accelerate and Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin typically continues to rise.Currently, the total net buying amount of ETFs and Strategy has dropped to only $870 million, primarily due to significant outflows from ETFs, shifting from net buying to net selling. Before ETF inflows stabilize and rebound, Bitcoin may continue to primarily experience consolidation in the short term.

Glassnode stated that Bitcoin has reclaimed the real market average at $78,300 but has failed to maintain a position above this level. Historical cycles suggest that several weeks to months of consolidation may be needed before confirming a credible bull market transition. The 30-day moving average has seen its risk-reward ratio rise from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. This indicator needs to remain above 2 to signal a true recovery of buyer strength.The 30-day cost baseline at $78,200 has shifted from a support level to an overhead resistance level, while the cost baseline of the accumulation group formed from February to April ($71,400) is currently the most direct support level in the ongoing pullback. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) remaining negative overall, and Coinbase activity continues to lag. This indicates that while there is sporadic offshore speculative demand, the participation of U.S. institutions in the spot market remains relatively weak.CME futures open interest has continued to rise alongside prices, indicating that while overall spot demand remains hesitant near the current range highs, institutional participation in the derivatives market is improving. The accumulation rate of U.S. spot ETFs has recently slowed, further indicating that positions are increasingly driven by futures activity. Implied volatility is rebounding from low levels, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, and the volatility risk premium has expanded, making the cost of hedging relatively manageable. Options positions remain defensive. The skew indicator shows a resurgence in demand for downside protection, while the negative gamma range around $75,000 makes spot prices susceptible to amplified hedging flows and increased price volatility.

According to The Block, Bitcoin's market share has rebounded from a low of 55% to about 58.5%. This metric has historically been a barometer for capital rotation within the crypto market: an increase in market share typically accompanies a consolidation phase where Bitcoin outperforms altcoins, while a decrease often signals the arrival of altcoin season.In mid-2025, Bitcoin's market share peaked between 62% and 63%, then continued to decline to about 54%. The current rise to 58% suggests that the market may be in a consolidation phase rather than a full shift towards altcoins.Bitcoin's price has rebounded from a low of around $63,000 in February to about $80,000. Over the past month, TON, ZEC, and DOGE have performed relatively strongly, a pattern that previously indicated altcoin expansion when Bitcoin's market share began to decline. The key question is whether Bitcoin's market share is consolidating at the current level or continuing to decline.

Data shows that Bitcoin's market share has rebounded from a low of about 55% to approximately 58.5%, indicating that funds are concentrating back into Bitcoin. Bitcoin's market share is often seen as an important indicator for observing the rotation of funds in the cryptocurrency market. An increase in market share often means the market is entering a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin performing relatively better than altcoins; while a decrease in market share is usually accompanied by funds flowing into higher-risk assets, driving what is known as "altcoin season." In comparison, Bitcoin's market share reached a high of 62% to 63% in mid-2025, and then continued to decline against the backdrop of rising altcoin activity, once dropping to about 54%. The current rebound to above 58% suggests that the market is more likely in a consolidation phase rather than a full shift towards altcoin trends.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that after nearly a year of bipartisan cooperation, the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act) is set to enter the committee review stage this week, bringing the U.S. closer to "consolidating its global leadership in financial innovation." Lummis said, "Wyoming has been a pioneer in exploration, and now Washington is following suit."Previously, Republican members of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee announced that Committee Chairman Tim Scott, Lummis, and Thom Tillis have jointly released the text of the market structure bill. According to the statement, the bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for the digital asset industry, protect investors, combat illegal financial activities, and encourage innovation to remain in the U.S.

Trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that SOL is currently showing strong relative strength among mainstream crypto assets, with a more stable trend compared to ETH and HYPE, and is seen as the most likely mainstream token to break out of the three-month consolidation range first. Analysis indicates that if SOL effectively breaks through the key resistance level of $96, the next target range may look towards around $120, with a potential upside of about 25%. At the same time, he also believes that as long as BTC does not fall below $80,000, market risk appetite is expected to remain, and funds can be positioned in advance for the breakout trend.

According to Theblock, K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has mainly fluctuated between $60,000 and $75,000, indicating that the trading volume of exchange-traded products and the behavior of long-term holders are stabilizing. He described this price trend as "typically associated with market bottoms" and suggested that the price range just above $70,000 may be attractive to medium- to long-term investors.According to Lunde, since late February, the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs has slightly turned positive, indicating that the sell-off wave since the historical high in October may be coming to an end. He stated that the previous capital outflow was due to profit-taking when the Bitcoin price fell below the investors' cost price, creating a supply-demand feedback loop. However, as prices fell, the motivation to sell weakened, and demand began to stabilize.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a mysterious giant whale created 10 new wallets and withdrew 83,000 ETH ($178 million) and 1.62 million LINK ($14.8 million) from Binance and Bybit, then distributed these tokens to multiple wallets. However, these tokens were not recently purchased—this giant whale is likely reorganizing wallets through exchanges.It has been noted that multiple wallets deposited 83,000 ETH ($178 million) and 1.62 million LINK ($14.8 million) into a recharge address related to Flowdesk.

Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bloomberg has reaffirmed its prediction: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000------a price level not seen since mid-2020. Industry observers believe this prediction is overly absurd.However, on the largest crypto options trading platform Deribit, about $800 million in open positions are concentrated on $20,000 put options, betting that the price will fall below that level. This is the fourth most popular bearish bet on the platform. This indicates that some traders are preparing for a possible crash. But Deribit stated that not all positions are direct bets against a price crash.Deribit’s Global Retail Sales Head Sidrah Fariq said, "Most positions are more like selling put options rather than directional long hedges. Traders often sell out-of-the-money put options because the probability of reaching those levels is low." Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, maintaining around $70,000 even as crude oil prices rebounded, pushing benchmark oil prices close to $100 in the early session, shaking traditional markets. Ethereum, XRP, and SOL have also remained strong, while HYPE tokens rose about 10% within 24 hours.Analysts say that excessive leverage is being cleared from the Bitcoin market, paving the way for price increases. Diana Pires, Vice President of Sales at crypto platform sFOX, stated in an email, "From a market structure perspective, this consolidation could be constructive, as reducing leveraged positions often lays a more stable foundation for the next wave of movement once clearer macro catalysts emerge."

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has experienced the deepest pullback in this cycle, with volatility narrowing and momentum weakening, showing that the market is shifting from a liquidation-driven decline to a more balanced consolidation environment.On-chain data shows that most of the recent drop has been absorbed by the demand zone of $60,000 to $69,000, with these near breakeven holders not accelerating their sell-off, which helps stabilize prices and form a sideways pattern.Institutional fund flows remain cautious, with a net outflow of approximately $166 million from Bitcoin ETFs in a single week, and Ethereum-related products also seeing continued redemptions, indicating that sustained accumulation has not yet returned. Although weekend inflows provided initial stabilization signals, overall liquidity remains low. The realized profit-loss ratio continues to shrink to historically defensive levels, indicating limited capital expansion within the network.Derivatives positions have returned to normal, with funding rates trending neutral to slightly negative, reducing liquidation risks but also limiting the acceleration of upward movements.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin is still consolidating in the $66,000–$70,000 range after its decline, marking the deepest pullback in this cycle. The volatility has narrowed and momentum has weakened, showing that the market is shifting from a liquidation-driven downturn to a more balanced consolidation environment.On-chain data shows that most of the recent decline has been absorbed by the demand zone between $60,000 and $69,000. These near breakeven holders have not accelerated their selling, which helps stabilize prices and form a sideways pattern. Additionally, institutional capital flows remain cautious, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net outflow of approximately $166 million in a single week, and Ethereum-related products also seeing continued redemptions, indicating that sustained accumulation has not yet returned.Although weekend inflows provided initial stability signals, overall liquidity remains low. The realized profit-loss ratio continues to shrink to historically defensive levels, indicating limited capital expansion within the network. Derivatives positions have returned to normal, with funding rates trending neutral to slightly negative, which reduces liquidation risk but also limits the acceleration of upward movements.

According to The Block, K33 stated in its latest report that the drop of Bitcoin approaching $60,000 last week may indicate a local bottom. This round of sell-off has shown "surrender conditions" in the spot, ETF, and derivatives markets, including extreme levels of trading volume, funding rates, and options skew.Some indicators show that Bitcoin's daily RSI has dropped to 15.9, the sixth lowest since 2015, only behind March 2020 and November 2018; the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 6, marking the second lowest point in history. K33 believes that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase in the range of $60,000 to $75,000, with reduced activity and a possibility of support retest, but the risk of a significant downward move below recent lows is limited.

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that Bitcoin's performance in January has reached its lowest level since 2022, with the market structure shifting from a distribution phase to a sustained downtrend. Currently, the $60,000 to $74,000 range is a key battleground for Bitcoin, where the market may consolidate, digest losses, and adjust positions before it can more clearly determine whether this range will serve as a rebound bottom or a brief pause before further declines.Despite the short-term momentum remaining bearish, the convergence of various capitulation signals suggests that Bitcoin is entering a stabilization phase.

According to CoinDesk, based on limited historical trading activity and on-chain supply, the BTC price may further consolidate or retest lower ranges. Since the drop over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin has been confined between $70,000 and $79,999 for five consecutive days. Bitcoin has spent a total of about 35 days within this $10,000 price range, making it one of the shortest durations, indicating that the price tends to move quickly through this area rather than establishing sustained support or resistance.The price is more likely to consolidate within this range or move down again before establishing a more solid foundation. In April of last year, Bitcoin rebounded after spending only a few weeks below $80,000. Similarly, when it reached a high near $73,000 in March 2024, it spent a short time at that level before starting to decline. A notable example occurred in November 2024, when the price surged from about $68,000 to $100,000 within weeks, with almost no consolidation in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, made only one purchase within this price range. On November 11, 2024, the company acquired 27,200 BTC for approximately $2 billion, at an average price of $74,463. Data shows that there is a supply gap between $70,000 and $80,000, indicating that this area remains structurally weak.

According to Jin Ten, during the Asian trading session, the Singapore dollar against the US dollar maintained a sideways consolidation, but the prospect of the Federal Reserve possibly keeping high interest rates for a longer period may put it under pressure.Analysts from CIMB International Treasury and Market Research pointed out that, given inflation remains high, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Richmond Fed President Barkin have both signaled that further rate cuts may take longer.

Matrixport released the latest analysis indicating that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent consolidation is the "lack of narrative." Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive months. Despite several U.S. wealth management firms gradually opening allocation channels, the new channels have not brought in corresponding incremental funds, and the overall ETF funding situation remains weak.Matrixport believes that the marginal demand from traditional finance (TradFi) may have reached a phase of saturation. In terms of timing, July was the last significant net inflow window, after which the momentum of funds has continued to weaken. The report suggests that Bitcoin may need a "narrative reboot" or a new core pricing theme to form substantial support in terms of funds and expectations, and to re-attract TradFi capital back; the current trend is more likely a phase of correction rather than a long-term trend reversal.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media, "Seeing some panic among Bitcoin holders (and the schadenfreude from bears) seems quite shortsighted to me. Since 2022, Bitcoin is up 429%, gold is up 177%, silver is up 350%, and QQQ is up 140%. In other words, Bitcoin's performance in 2023 and 2024 has left other assets far behind (but many seem to have forgotten this). Even if other assets later have 'the best year ever,' and Bitcoin is in a slump, they still haven't caught up to Bitcoin's performance. In my view, what is really happening is that the narrative of 'institutionalization' has been priced in by the market too early and too quickly, and this pricing was completed before it actually materialized. Therefore, Bitcoin needs a period of consolidation for reality to catch up with the previous price increases."

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that after Bitcoin rebounded from a low of nearly $80,800 in late November, it continues to test the key resistance zone of $93,500 to $95,000, with short-term price movements still constrained by factors such as inconsistent ETF fund flows.Currently, Bitcoin is entering a dense supply zone formed by buyers at recent highs, with a cost basis between $92,100 and $117,400. As the price returns to this area, holders looking to break even may increase selling pressure, creating significant resistance above or facing "profit-taking pressure," which may keep the market in a range-bound oscillation. The derivatives market reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment, characterized by a coexistence of long-term bullish positions and short-term bearish hedges.

ChainCatcher news, according to the “RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report”, shows that 2025 will present a rhythm of "Q3 concentrated IPOs and Q4 merger explosions," reflecting the path of companies "first going public for financing, then integrating and expanding." In November, the monthly merger amount accounted for 59% of the annual total, mainly driven by the actions of giants like Naver acquiring Dunamu.The report indicates that the integration trend will continue in the first half of 2026, with industry leaders building moats through capital operations, while small and medium-sized projects face the harsh choice of "being acquired or being eliminated."