consolidation

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that Bitcoin's performance in January has reached its lowest level since 2022, with the market structure shifting from a distribution phase to a sustained downtrend. Currently, the $60,000 to $74,000 range is a key battleground for Bitcoin, where the market may consolidate, digest losses, and adjust positions before it can more clearly determine whether this range will serve as a rebound bottom or a brief pause before further declines.Despite the short-term momentum remaining bearish, the convergence of various capitulation signals suggests that Bitcoin is entering a stabilization phase.

According to CoinDesk, based on limited historical trading activity and on-chain supply, the BTC price may further consolidate or retest lower ranges. Since the drop over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin has been confined between $70,000 and $79,999 for five consecutive days. Bitcoin has spent a total of about 35 days within this $10,000 price range, making it one of the shortest durations, indicating that the price tends to move quickly through this area rather than establishing sustained support or resistance.The price is more likely to consolidate within this range or move down again before establishing a more solid foundation. In April of last year, Bitcoin rebounded after spending only a few weeks below $80,000. Similarly, when it reached a high near $73,000 in March 2024, it spent a short time at that level before starting to decline. A notable example occurred in November 2024, when the price surged from about $68,000 to $100,000 within weeks, with almost no consolidation in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, made only one purchase within this price range. On November 11, 2024, the company acquired 27,200 BTC for approximately $2 billion, at an average price of $74,463. Data shows that there is a supply gap between $70,000 and $80,000, indicating that this area remains structurally weak.

According to Jin Ten, during the Asian trading session, the Singapore dollar against the US dollar maintained a sideways consolidation, but the prospect of the Federal Reserve possibly keeping high interest rates for a longer period may put it under pressure.Analysts from CIMB International Treasury and Market Research pointed out that, given inflation remains high, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Richmond Fed President Barkin have both signaled that further rate cuts may take longer.

Matrixport released the latest analysis indicating that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent consolidation is the "lack of narrative." Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive months. Despite several U.S. wealth management firms gradually opening allocation channels, the new channels have not brought in corresponding incremental funds, and the overall ETF funding situation remains weak.Matrixport believes that the marginal demand from traditional finance (TradFi) may have reached a phase of saturation. In terms of timing, July was the last significant net inflow window, after which the momentum of funds has continued to weaken. The report suggests that Bitcoin may need a "narrative reboot" or a new core pricing theme to form substantial support in terms of funds and expectations, and to re-attract TradFi capital back; the current trend is more likely a phase of correction rather than a long-term trend reversal.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media, "Seeing some panic among Bitcoin holders (and the schadenfreude from bears) seems quite shortsighted to me. Since 2022, Bitcoin is up 429%, gold is up 177%, silver is up 350%, and QQQ is up 140%. In other words, Bitcoin's performance in 2023 and 2024 has left other assets far behind (but many seem to have forgotten this). Even if other assets later have 'the best year ever,' and Bitcoin is in a slump, they still haven't caught up to Bitcoin's performance. In my view, what is really happening is that the narrative of 'institutionalization' has been priced in by the market too early and too quickly, and this pricing was completed before it actually materialized. Therefore, Bitcoin needs a period of consolidation for reality to catch up with the previous price increases."

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that after Bitcoin rebounded from a low of nearly $80,800 in late November, it continues to test the key resistance zone of $93,500 to $95,000, with short-term price movements still constrained by factors such as inconsistent ETF fund flows.Currently, Bitcoin is entering a dense supply zone formed by buyers at recent highs, with a cost basis between $92,100 and $117,400. As the price returns to this area, holders looking to break even may increase selling pressure, creating significant resistance above or facing "profit-taking pressure," which may keep the market in a range-bound oscillation. The derivatives market reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment, characterized by a coexistence of long-term bullish positions and short-term bearish hedges.

ChainCatcher news, according to the “RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report”, shows that 2025 will present a rhythm of "Q3 concentrated IPOs and Q4 merger explosions," reflecting the path of companies "first going public for financing, then integrating and expanding." In November, the monthly merger amount accounted for 59% of the annual total, mainly driven by the actions of giants like Naver acquiring Dunamu.The report indicates that the integration trend will continue in the first half of 2026, with industry leaders building moats through capital operations, while small and medium-sized projects face the harsh choice of "being acquired or being eliminated."

According to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of over $126,000 on October 6, it subsequently faced a $19 billion liquidation event, with the current trading price around $87,000. The market is divided on future trends, with 50T Funds founder Dan Tapiero believing the bull market is still in the "mid-stage," while Fidelity's research director predicts that Bitcoin may experience a "year of consolidation" in 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.Analysts point out that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is gradually evolving into a broader long-term trend driven by fundamental factors such as global liquidity and sovereign adoption. Currently, tracking data shows that most top traders hold a short-term bearish stance on mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Trader Banmuxia posted on social media, "Bitcoin has reached a point where it is no longer a very good long opportunity. The liquidity logic for the medium term has also been weakened by the recent continuous ETF sell-offs. This is not the best long opportunity, which does not mean it won't rise later, but the risks are increasing. During the adjustment phase, if the opportunity is not very high probability, there is no need to participate; just continue to observe the market's complex consolidation."

According to SoSoValue data, the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of consolidation. The Layer2 sector remains relatively strong, with a 24-hour increase of 0.52%. Among them, Starknet (STRK) rose by 17.49%, and zkSync (ZK) increased by 15.23%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.09%, rebounding above $92,000, while Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.93%, fluctuating around $3,000.In addition, the NFT sector increased by 0.33% in 24 hours, with Zora (ZORA) rising by 4.82%; the AI sector rose by 0.18%, with Fetch.ai (FET) increasing by 9.45%. In other sectors, the DeFi sector fell by 1.18%, but Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose by 1.13%; the Layer1 sector decreased by 1.3%, while Zcash (ZEC) went against the trend, rising by 12.07%; the Meme sector dropped by 2.03%, with Pump.fun (PUMP) surging 4.41% during the session; the CeFi sector fell by 2.58%, while Mantle (MNT) rose by 1.18%; the PayFi sector decreased by 3.54%, but Dash (DASH) increased by 5.75%. The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market performance show that ssiDeFi, ssiGameFi, and ssiSocialFi fell by 3.9%, 3.17%, and 3.11%, respectively.

The cryptocurrency asset ETP issuer 21Shares analyst Maximiliaan Michielsen analyzed that the Bitcoin price falling below $100,000 has raised market concerns about a bear market. However, the analysis suggests that this decline is a short-term adjustment rather than the beginning of a deep or long-term bear market. Although volatility and consolidation may continue until the end of the year, the fundamental factors driving this cycle remain solid, supporting its long-term positive outlook.The recent weakness in Bitcoin is mainly influenced by three factors: forced liquidations, large Bitcoin holders selling off, and ETF capital outflows, as well as liquidity tightening triggered by macro events.Since October, the market has experienced a total deleveraging process of $32 billion, including $3 billion in liquidations over the past week. Large investors have also been taking profits, having sold approximately $12 billion worth of Bitcoin since October. Meanwhile, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $866 million last Thursday, marking the second-highest single-day outflow on record. Additionally, the U.S. government shutdown has led to the Treasury withdrawing about $150 billion in cash from the financial system, exacerbating liquidity tightness.Despite this, there are positive signals in the market. The selling pressure from long-term investors has significantly diminished, and assets are shifting to new, more stable holders. At the same time, liquidity conditions are expected to improve, with U.S. quantitative tightening anticipated to end in December and government spending set to resume. Furthermore, the global money supply continues to expand, which typically supports Bitcoin. In the macroeconomic context, the demand for investors to hedge against fiat currency depreciation is increasing, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value.Although Bitcoin has technically entered a short-term bear market, the analysis suggests that this decline resembles a valuation reset rather than a deep bear market with a drop of over 80%. Crucially, there are currently no classic bear market catalysts present: no securities defaults, systemic fraud, regulatory shocks, or macroeconomic tightening cycles. Historical data shows that such a magnitude of correction typically ends within 1 to 3 months and often marks a consolidation phase before the next upward movement. In the long term, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain solid, and the outlook remains constructive.

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that Bitcoin has recorded the third largest drop in this cycle, falling 25% from its historical high, dropping below $94,000. The downward momentum remains strong on lower time frames; however, the speed of selling and the actual losses for investors have begun to stabilize, suggesting that the market may be entering a consolidation phase rather than a continued crash.Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is well below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at $111,900, and there are still downward risks before returning to that level.

The latest weekly report from Matrix on Target shows that Bitcoin has currently entered a phase of consolidation, with prices under pressure from both the macro environment and market structural factors.The Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that it will not rush to cut interest rates, leading to a cooling of market expectations for easing; the dollar has stabilized and rebounded, with marginal tightening of liquidity; the capital inflow from the spot ETF at the beginning of the year has been largely digested. From the perspective of position structure, the participation and risk appetite of major buyers have weakened, with some early large holders choosing to take profits, leading to a cooling of capital inflow from spot ETFs and a clear trend of deleveraging in crypto-native funds. The report suggests that the current market signals are insufficient to support the conclusion that "the cycle has peaked," and it appears more like a slowdown and consolidation in the later stages of the cycle. If the global liquidity environment turns accommodative and central bank policies become clearer, Bitcoin is expected to improve its performance in 2026 and beyond.

Chinese encryption analyst Banmuxia stated, "Regarding Bitcoin, there are still many people underestimating the complexity of the upcoming market situation. I believe that this small bear market will likely end around $84,000, but that does not mean it will smoothly decline to $84,000; this time it will likely be a complex horizontal adjustment.Currently, it seems that it may slightly drop to around $94,500, and then it will likely enter an exceptionally complex oscillation market, with a rebound that could even reach above $116,000, and then slowly drop to the $84,000 and below 6-8% range."

ChainCatcher news, according to market news, the latest research report from Citizens Bank in the U.S. shows that merger and acquisition activities in the digital asset industry are accelerating and are expected to speed up further. With the passage of the GENIUS Act (stablecoin regulations) and the anticipated introduction of the CLARITY Act (market structure), the regulatory environment in the U.S. has shifted from "hostile" to supportive, encouraging banks, payment processors, and asset management companies to actively integrate blockchain infrastructure.The report indicates that Mastercard is in talks to acquire ZeroHash for up to $2 billion, and Coinbase is also nearing completion of a similar-scale acquisition of the London-based company BVNK. The technical complexity, talent shortages, and compliance requirements have made acquisitions the most practical expansion path for traditional institutions. The market capitalization of stablecoins has increased from $250 billion in the middle of the year to approximately $315 billion, and it is expected to exceed $1 trillion. Citizens Bank predicts that by 2030, the tokenized market could generate nearly $100 billion in annual revenue, including trading, custody, and data services.