cryptoquant

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha stated that the inflow of Bitcoin whales on the Binance platform has fallen below $3 billion for the first time since June 2025. The 30-day realized market value change for long-term holders (LTH) rebounded to $49 billion on April 9, marking the second time it has returned to this level since March 26.In contrast, the 30-day realized market value change for short-term holders (STH) dropped to -$54 billion, marking the third time it has fallen below -$50 billion since March 2.Overall, these data indicate that weak holders are still distributing Bitcoin, while long-term holders are re-entering to absorb the supply.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, despite the current market facing geopolitical tensions and their economic impacts, the environment for risk assets remains challenging, but some investors seem more inclined to hold Bitcoin for the long term. Data shows that the supply of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin is gradually increasing, presenting constructive and positive signals.As of the end of November last year, the supply of Bitcoin long-term holders (30-day moving average) had dropped to -674,000 BTC, but it has now rebounded to a positive value, averaging an increase of about 308,000 BTC. This indicates that investor behavior is shifting from selling to holding. Although the price of Bitcoin is still fluctuating within a range, an increase in long-term holdings is often a precursor to price rises.The analysis points out that this indicator is based on the UTXO model, reflecting the natural transfer of UTXOs created six months ago and not spent into the long-term holder category, and does not fully represent the active accumulation behavior of long-term holders. Continuous observation of this dynamic is still needed; if the supply of long-term holders continues to rise, it may become a more convincing positive signal for the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the profit and loss supply of Bitcoin has reached a typical level for a bear market. Currently, about 11.2 million Bitcoins are still in profit relative to their purchase price. This is not far from the lowest level of profitable Bitcoins during the last bear market (9 million).On the other hand, approximately 8.2 million Bitcoins are currently in a loss state, while the number of loss Bitcoins during the last bear market was about 10.6 million. This indicates that the market is significantly undervalued, similar to the situation during the last bear market.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a comprehensive indicator that measures the aggressiveness of long/short positions in the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual opening direction of futures market participants.The 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) of this index reached a local high of +3 on March 17 when the Bitcoin price was $73,925, and has since continued to decline, now down to -3.1. This reflects a sustained accumulation of short positions. During the same period, the Bitcoin price fell from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d declining in sync with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure.The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise, reaching 18.6% as of now. This indicates that the market is continuously generating forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars dominated by short liquidations have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains high and the significant red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation balance begins to recover. The reversal of both indicators occurring simultaneously will confirm each other.The Bitcoin price has cumulatively dropped about 11% from the peak of $74,883, and the current derivatives market structure shows no foundation for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be cleared, and short squeeze scenarios are almost nonexistent. Current operational stance: avoid risk. The main downside risk is: if the pressure from forced liquidations continues and the position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin price will intensify if it breaks below $66,000.

According to Theblock citing CryptoQuant data, although some institutional buyers are still continuing to purchase, the spot demand for Bitcoin remains in a "deep contraction" state. As of late March, the 30-day apparent demand has decreased by approximately -63,000 BTC, indicating that the selling pressure in the market is still stronger than the buying pressure.CryptoQuant stated that if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran eases, the price of Bitcoin could rise to the range of $71,500 to $81,200, which are key resistance levels in a bear market.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen below 1, indicating that even long-term investors are selling at a loss.Since long-term holders are the group least sensitive to short-term fluctuations, when they start realizing losses, it can be interpreted as a broader capitulation occurring in the entire market. At this point, short-term holders are likely to have already exited the market or have suffered significant losses.In other words, most participants in the market are in a state of loss. Historically, this situation often leads to a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure, forming a market bottom or an area close to a long-term low. While it may still be too early to determine that the current market is the absolute bottom, when losses become widespread, it often represents the final stage of fear sentiment and the beginning of opportunity.

CryptoQuant's recent report pointed out that Strategy is currently the single main buyer of BTC reserve demand, having accumulated approximately 45,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly a year, with its holdings accounting for about 76% of all reserve-type companies.At the same time, non-Strategy companies' purchase volume has dropped to about 1,000 BTC, a decrease of approximately 99% from its peak, with their share falling to 2%. New demand is nearly exiting, and the number of purchases by related companies has decreased to 13 times (with a peak of 54 times), indicating a significant reduction in both capital investment and participation, with the overall market demand structure highly concentrated in Strategy.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's monitoring, as geopolitical tensions and economic trade pressures continue, BTC has recently seen a slight rebound, and the market has entered a consolidation phase.The panic selling sentiment among short-term holders (STH) reached its peak, with approximately 100,000 BTC transferred to Binance within 7 days. Currently, this data has significantly decreased, with the amount of BTC flowing into Binance from STH dropping to about 25,000, marking a historical low. Analysts believe this change indicates a significant reduction in market selling pressure, which is a positive signal for the currently pressured risk asset market.

According to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, analyst Darkfost has monitored that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have significantly rebounded after experiencing a large outflow. The cumulative Bitcoin balance of the ETF is still negative (approximately -4,000 BTC), but it has improved significantly compared to the lowest point (-42,000 BTC). In the past month, the ETF has seen a net inflow of about 38,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.6 billion.Analysts point out that the rebound in ETF demand is an important driving factor for the recent positive trend in the Bitcoin market. However, the Bitcoin price is still fluctuating within the current range, and whether it can maintain positive momentum in the future depends on the sustainability of this trend.

CryptoQuant analyzed on platform X that the demand for Bitcoin reserves is currently entirely driven by Strategy.In the past 30 days, Strategy purchased 45,000 Bitcoins, while other companies collectively bought only about 1,000, a decrease of 99% compared to before. Currently, Strategy holds about 76% of the Bitcoin reserve share, indicating a high concentration in the industry and a lack of broad corporate demand.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler posted on the X platform that the Coinbase premium index has rebounded from the previously negative range reflecting a collapse in demand from U.S. investors to a neutral to weak level. However, this indicator has not yet stabilized in the positive range, indicating that comprehensive bullish momentum from U.S. investors has not yet been confirmed, and market sentiment remains cautious.

CryptoQuant posted on social media that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.88, setting a new low.This means that the two show a strong negative correlation trend, with capital flowing into Bitcoin pushing its price up to $74,000, while gold has seen a slight decline.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the trend of Ethereum's open interest indicates a continuous inflow of liquidity into the derivatives market, supporting the stability of Ethereum's upward trend rather than short-term fluctuations.

On-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, the sentiment among derivatives market traders has clearly shifted to bullish. However, if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, it may encounter resistance in the range of $75,000 to $85,000.CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that there has been a significant increase in long positions in the perpetual contract market recently, indicating that traders generally expect there is still upward potential for prices in the short term. As Bitcoin broke through $70,000, a large number of short positions were liquidated, while new long positions continued to build above $73,000. At the same time, the funding rate also shows a change in market sentiment. The Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate remained "extremely negative" before March 13, but has turned generally positive since March 15, indicating that traders are willing to pay fees to maintain long positions. The Ethereum funding rate has also mostly remained positive since March 9. However, CryptoQuant noted that if Bitcoin continues to rise, it may first encounter resistance around $75,000, which corresponds to the lower bound of the "Traders' On-chain Realized Price." The next important resistance range is around $85,000, a level that has previously served as price resistance during the rallies in October 2025 and January of this year.

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that there has been a rebound in the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs recently, but the Bitcoin price is still $5,174 lower than the ETF realization price (note: this can be approximated as the average cost price of Bitcoin held by the ETF), which is about $80,000.The analyst mentioned that a recovery in demand could drive prices upward, but the resistance level around $80,000 may trigger profit-taking, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent macro data to assess the potential for a breakout.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated on social media that the current price of Bitcoin has risen above its fair value, and the market structure has significantly changed compared to two weeks ago.Axel Adler Jr pointed out that two weeks ago, the market was in a bearish dominant phase, with the price of Bitcoin below its fair value, and the model he used was also in a "Bear Regime" state. As of now, this structure has completely reversed—prices have risen above fair value, and the bears' control over the market has come to an end.

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant states that Ethereum is facing an "adoption paradox," where network activity has reached an all-time high, yet the price of ETH has significantly dropped.The research director at CryptoQuant indicated that if the bear market continues, ETH could further decline to around $1,500, a level that may be reached by the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4 this year. Data shows that Ethereum's daily active addresses hit an all-time high last month, surpassing levels seen during the 2021 bull market, while ETH has dropped over 50% from this cycle's peak. Activity generated by smart contracts and automated protocols has also surged, with internal contract calls reaching an all-time high last month, but the historical relationship has deteriorated, weakening the positive correlation between ETH prices and contract-driven activity.CryptoQuant pointed out that exchange inflows explain ETH price dynamics better than network activity metrics, and a higher exchange inflow ratio of ETH relative to Bitcoin indicates stronger relative selling pressure. Ethereum's realized market cap has recently turned negative over the past year, indicating that capital is flowing out, even as on-chain activity continues to grow. The research director stated that ETH needs to see positive capital inflows and lower exchange inflows to emerge from the bear market.

According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has intensified. MARA announced a new policy allowing the sale of Bitcoin reserves and transferred 298 BTC to Cumberland; Core Scientific recently also sold 2,174 BTC.MARA's current average mining cost is about $70,027 per coin, while efficient miners can have costs as low as approximately $45,000. The purpose of the sell-offs by several mining companies includes strengthening their balance sheets and funding the expansion of AI infrastructure.

According to CoinDesk, CryptoQuant's latest report shows that Ethereum network activity has reached historical highs on multiple metrics, but the price of ETH has dropped about 30% over the past six months. Data indicates that the number of daily active addresses on Ethereum is close to 2 million, surpassing the peak during the 2021 bull market; the number of smart contract calls has exceeded 40 million per day.However, Ethereum has seen its annual market cap change turn negative, indicating a net outflow of capital. CryptoQuant's analysis suggests that capital flow, rather than network activity, better explains the current ETH price trend, contrasting with the synchronous rise of on-chain activity and price during the cycles of 2018 and 2021.In terms of fees, according to DefiLlama data, Ethereum's trading fees over the past 30 days were approximately $10.3 million, ranking third, behind Tron and Solana; protocol revenue was only $1.22 million, ranking fifth. Despite Ethereum supporting about $162 billion in stablecoin supply (accounting for 52% of the global market), its value capture ability has not kept pace with the growth in network usage.