decision

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of "Federal Reserve October Decision" on the prediction market Polymarket, the sub-market "No Change" option's probability of "Yes" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, plummeting from 45.5% an hour ago to the current 30.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

B.AI platform announces that the first System One model Jev launched by TypeSafe AI is officially online with API.Jev is designed for high-speed structured decision-making within software and does not generate any text: after developers input the application status and typed questions, the model directly returns decision results with probabilities and confidence levels, without the need for a JSON Prompt or output parsing. The model supports parallel evaluation of three types of primitives: Choice / Score / Noul, with an end-to-end latency of approximately 70--500ms, input costs only $0.042 per million tokens, and output is free, suitable for scenarios such as ticket routing, content review, risk scoring, and agent branching judgment.Currently, Jev is available in the "official" → "full access" list of B.AI API and can be called via Jev-1.13.0 or Jev-Latest.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "AI Agent Places Orders for You: Do You Dare to Hand Over Your Position?" today at 8 PM. At that time, 0xMoon and Dr. Dinosaur will have a dialogue with Yang Shao and Amber, discussing the application of AI Agent in trading decisions, strategy execution, and position management, exploring key issues such as the reliability of automated trading, account authorization, and fund security.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $53,963.34 in a single buy for the "Federal Reserve October Decision" event, targeting "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 46.63%.

According to Fox News, U.S. President Trump stated that he is "making decisions" regarding the Iran issue, and very significant things will happen in the near future, including options such as completely eliminating Iran and causing its economy to collapse, or reaching an agreement.Trump said, "They better be restrained." Trump also mentioned that he "might be" willing to meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during the United Nations General Assembly. Raisi will travel to New York next week. Despite recent alerts issued, Trump described this weekend as "no different from any other weekend." Trump also stated that the U.S. has been in communication with the Houthis, and they have agreed not to fight against the U.S.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Federal Reserve October Decision" event is currently the most actively traded on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching $5,000,600. The option with the highest market consensus is "No Change," corresponding to an estimated probability of about 54.5%.

Mitul Kotecha, Head of Foreign Exchange and Emerging Markets Macro Strategy at Barclays Asia, stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike decision makes a rate increase by the Bank of Japan almost inevitable. The yen has depreciated by more than 1.1% since the Federal Reserve's decision, while the dollar has appreciated by 0.7% against major trading partner currencies.

According to CME's "FedWatch," after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected in September, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% in the October meeting is 59.5%, the probability of a 25 basis point increase is 40.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point increase is 0.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% until December is 16.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 54.0%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 28.9%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 75 basis points is 0.3%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that he would not disclose details of the Federal Open Market Committee's future interest rate decisions and emphasized that he is not responsible for providing forward guidance.Waller mentioned that today's rate hike decision was made after careful consideration, not driven by the market, but based on an assessment of the current situation, employment trends, and economic strength.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of the "Federal Reserve's October Decision" on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "25 Basis Points Increase" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 30.5% an hour ago to the current 48% (a fluctuation of 17.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

The Federal Reserve FOMC statement shows that the members unanimously agreed on this interest rate decision. The voting result from the last meeting was 9-3.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), posted on platform X that at 2 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. According to the 30-day federal funds futures prices, the current probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is about 92%. He expects the Federal Reserve to raise the target interest rate range from 3.50% to 3.75% to 3.75% to 4.00%, believing that this outcome is basically a foregone conclusion.After the interest rate decision is announced, the Federal Reserve will also release the dot plot. Jiang Zhuoer stated that attention should be focused on the median of the interest rate forecast and the central trend range after excluding the highest and lowest three points each. He expects the dot plot to show two rate hikes in total by 2026, meaning there will be one more rate hike within this year after the current hike, and the related expectations may lead to a short-term market decline.Jiang Zhuoer believes that the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, starting at 2:30 AM, is the biggest variable and expects it may release dovish signals. Therefore, he judges that the most likely market path is "falling first and then rising": a decline after the interest rate decision and dot plot announcement, followed by a rebound after Warsh's speech. He expects Bitcoin may drop below $75,000 before rebounding to $83,000 to $84,000, followed by a significant adjustment.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has shown a relatively independent trend before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with a significant decrease in its short-term correlation with the US dollar index and US stocks. Alice Liu, the research director at CoinMarketCap, stated that the short-term correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US dollar index has dropped to 0.08, compared to -0.54 over the past 30 days; its correlation coefficients with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index have decreased to 0.43 and 0.3, respectively, from 0.75 and 0.6 the previous day.Liu believes that the market has recently shifted its attention to the CLARITY Act, which failed to pass a key procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday, temporarily overshadowing regulatory progress with macro factors. As the correlation weakens, the strategy of hedging Bitcoin long positions by shorting S&P 500 futures has currently decreased in reliability. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a scenario that has been largely priced in.This decision will test whether Bitcoin can re-establish its linkage with the US dollar and US stocks; traders also need to pay attention to the guidance after the meeting and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, as a significant rise in the latter could tighten financial conditions and drive risk-averse capital flows into the crypto market.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $175,824.35 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point interest rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 88%.

The Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, stated that Trump and I respect any decision made by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller tomorrow.

According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, the BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of $463 million, marking the first negative value since the low in June, with ARK and Grayscale accounting for a combined outflow of $371 million, while BlackRock remained flat. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% over the week, closing at $76,838, making it the worst-performing asset, while Ethereum dropped 1.5%, and altcoins overall rose by 1%.On a macro level, the U.S. August CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (core 0.3%), higher than the expected 0.2%, and the PPI annual rate reached 5.4%, prompting Goldman Sachs to change its September forecast from "hold steady" to "raise interest rates." The market's expectation for a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday has risen to 87%. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with Brent crude oil surpassing $105 per barrel, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting a 20-year high.Wintermute stated that after the ETF fund outflow turned negative, it tends to hold a neutral rather than bullish stance on the market. This week has two key events: ① On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (the cryptocurrency market structure bill), which requires 60 votes to pass; ② On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the rate hike itself already priced in, but subsequent hawkish statements (especially signals regarding continued rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027) may pose downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, large capital movements are predicted to occur in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $52,800 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this asset is 88%.