expectations

According to Jinshi News, Baida Wealth Management pointed out that the market currently has an unusually high probability pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. Senior U.S. economist Xiao Cui stated that while the risk of an unexpected rate hike cannot be completely ruled out, the current market pricing seems too high. The latest U.S. inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75% this week.Cui also believes that Logan and Harmack in the committee may cast dissenting votes in support of a 25 basis point rate hike, and Kashkari may also join this camp.

Intel released its second-quarter financial report, with revenue of $16.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, marking the strongest quarterly growth in over fifteen years, exceeding market expectations of $14.4 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.42, higher than the expected $0.21. Under GAAP, the net loss was $11 billion, primarily due to a $12.5 billion loss in market value related to the custodial shares under the U.S. government's CHIPS Act agreement.Revenue from the Data Center and AI business (DCAI) was $6.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59%; revenue from Client Computing and Physical AI business (CCPG) was $8.9 billion, an increase of 13%; Intel's foundry business revenue was $5.8 billion, an increase of 31%. The company stated that data center orders have exceeded current supply capacity, and it has signed 10 long-term server CPU supply agreements. Gross margin rebounded from 27.5% in the same period last year to 40.4%, with operating cash flow of $7 billion. Intel expects third-quarter revenue to be between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion, with adjusted EPS of approximately $0.38, all above market expectations. After the financial report was released, Intel's stock price rose about 11% in after-hours trading.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank has kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with market expectations, while the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.40% and 2.65%, respectively.

Tesla announced its second-quarter financial report, with revenue of $28.24 billion, exceeding market expectations of $25.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%; adjusted earnings per share of $0.33, significantly lower than the expected $0.51; net profit of $1.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Gross margin fell to 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the same period last year and below the market expectation of 19.4%. Operating expenses surged 47% year-on-year to $4.35 billion, and operating profit margin plummeted from 4.1% to 1.4%, mainly affected by AI and R&D investments.Free cash flow turned negative at $1.1 billion, compared to positive $146 million in the same period last year, with capital expenditures soaring 142% year-on-year to $5.79 billion. The company stated that investments in capacity construction and infrastructure for AI computing power, battery materials, and semiconductor manufacturing are ongoing. Revenue from the automotive business was $20.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, energy business revenue was $3.14 billion, an increase of 13%, and revenue from services and other businesses was $4.58 billion, an increase of 50%. FSD subscription users reached 1.48 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56%. Tesla's stock price has fallen approximately 17% year-to-date.

Benchmark has lowered its second-quarter performance expectations for Coinbase ahead of the earnings report next week, citing weak trading activity in the cryptocurrency market, but still maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of $270. Based on Coinbase's stock price of about $172 on Wednesday, this target price corresponds to an upside potential of approximately 57%.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer has revised Coinbase's second-quarter revenue expectation from $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion and has lowered the full-year revenue expectation for 2026 from $6.33 billion to $6 billion. The trading volume on centralized exchanges in the second quarter has decreased by about 28%, and the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has dropped by about 13%. The firm expects Coinbase's trading revenue to decline by more than 5%.However, the market showed initial signs of stabilization in June, with spot trading volume exceeding $1 trillion for the first time since March, which may somewhat alleviate the weak performance in the second quarter.Benchmark believes that if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, it could become a more significant catalyst for the stock price than quarterly performance, with Coinbase potentially being one of the main beneficiaries of the act. Trump has previously agreed to the relevant ethical provisions, removing a key obstacle to the advancement of the bill.

This week, the focus of the U.S. stock market will shift to the second-quarter earnings reports of tech giants such as Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel, while also paying attention to leading indicators, initial jobless claims, and PMI preliminary values. The market will primarily examine AI capital expenditures, consumer resilience, and interest rate expectations. Key events include: on Monday, the release of leading indicators and DPZ's earnings report; on Tuesday, attention to earnings reports from GM, SCHW, and others; on Wednesday, GOOGL and TSLA will release their earnings reports; on Thursday, initial jobless claims data will be released, along with INTC's earnings report; on Friday, PMI preliminary values and new home sales data will be announced.WEEX Labs believes that this week, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, EVs, and the financial sector may become the main directions of market volatility. Investors need to focus on corporate earnings guidance and the signals released by employment data, managing their positions rationally.

According to Jinshi reports, as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates over the weekend, the market bets that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, leading to a decline in gold prices. Following a drop of more than 2% last week, gold is currently trading around $3,995 per ounce.Escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including an attack on a key oil facility in Kuwait, have caused oil prices to soar. Tehran has stated that the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is effectively null and void, intensifying concerns about potential severe disruptions to critical energy supplies.

According to Jinshi, the initial value of the U.S. inflation rate expectations for the 5 to 10-year period in July is 3.3%, which is consistent with both the expectations and the previous value of 3.3%.

According to Gate market data, Netflix fell 9.2% in pre-market trading, as the company expects third-quarter revenue and profit to be below market expectations.

Global chip foundry giant TSMC announced its financial report for the second quarter of 2026. Benefiting from the strong demand for advanced process chips driven by global AI infrastructure development, TSMC's performance this quarter significantly exceeded market expectations. During the period, it achieved revenue of NT$1.27 trillion (approximately US$40.2 billion), a year-on-year increase of 36%; net profit reached NT$706.6 billion (approximately US$22 billion), a year-on-year surge of 77.4%, far exceeding the market's previous estimate of NT$623.7 billion. In addition, the company's gross margin for the quarter reached 67.7%, and the operating margin was 60.3%, both better than expected.In terms of process structure, advanced processes (7 nanometers and below) contributed a total of 77% to the total wafer revenue this quarter. Among them, the 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer processes accounted for 30% and 33%, respectively, while the 7-nanometer process accounted for 11%. Notably, TSMC's newly shipped 2-nanometer advanced process recorded revenue for the first time, accounting for 3%.Looking ahead, TSMC confirmed that its capital expenditure for 2026 will approach a record US$56 billion and plans to invest approximately US$26.5 billion in its advanced manufacturing park in Arizona, USA. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei stated that the current pace of capacity expansion still lags behind demand, and the situation of supply not meeting demand is expected to continue for several years. Meanwhile, despite TSMC's strong performance, the market remains somewhat cautious and concerned about whether the massive AI investments by tech giants can translate into actual returns and the medium- to long-term competitive landscape.

According to Jinshi News, ECB Governing Council member Panetta stated that the European Central Bank's goal in considering future interest rate decisions is to maintain the stability of inflation expectations and limit the indirect and secondary effects of shocks.

On July 13, according to WEEX TradFi data, the three major U.S. stock indices slightly rose last Friday, oil prices remained strong, and precious metals were generally weak. The market will focus this week on the U.S. June CPI, bank earnings reports, developments in the U.S.-Iran situation, and related dynamics from the Federal Reserve.Key events include: the release of the U.S. June CPI on Tuesday, where core inflation data may impact expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while major banks like JPMorgan will successively disclose their earnings reports; on Thursday, TSMC will announce its latest performance, and AI computing power-related guidance may continue to influence sentiment in the semiconductor sector. WEEX Labs believes that the CPI data and corporate earnings reports will jointly affect the market's pricing of inflation stickiness and AI capital expenditures. Funds may continue to rotate around interest rate-sensitive assets and the AI infrastructure sector. Investors need to pay attention to macro data and the outcomes of events and participate in the market rationally.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve released a semi-annual report, stating that the long-term inflation expectations indicator is "generally consistent" with the 2% target.