fluctuations

According to The Block, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with prices remaining above $72,000, influenced by the situation in the Middle East and U.S. CPI inflation data. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $358 million, while Ethereum funds saw an additional approximately $85 million in funding.Analysts point out that although the risk premium has decreased due to the ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has not yet returned to normal, with oil prices, interest rates, and crypto assets closely linked. The March CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, with rising energy costs being the main driver. Institutional investors remain cautious about risks, and the options market indicates that summer volatility may tend to calm down. The current Bitcoin trend is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with traders waiting for more data to determine the subsequent direction.

According to Binance spot data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. RDNT has dropped 13.2% in 24 hours, and STO has dropped 19.06%, both showing a "high and then falling back" state.Meanwhile, SENT has shown a "bottoming out and rising" state, with a 24-hour increase of 5.45%. TRU, KNC, and ADX have all reached new highs today, with increases of 6.97%, 5.16%, and 5.53%, respectively.

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

According to Coinglass data, the market experienced rapid and significant fluctuations due to Trump's remarks. During this period, there were a total of 4 contracts worth over ten million dollars liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with 2 occurring on Hyperliquid. Among them, 3 were short positions in BTC and ETH that were liquidated, and another was a long position in Brent crude oil on Trade.xyz that was liquidated.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2 AM this Thursday. Currently, the futures market shows a 99% probability of no change, while next month's interest rate meeting decision is believed to have a 97% probability of remaining unchanged. The Federal Reserve's impact on the market in the past two months has likely been relatively limited.Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 74,000, and the greed index is neutral: 1. Hawkish signal: If the dot plot shows only 1 or even 0 rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC will most likely retest the support level of 68,000 USD. 2. Dovish surprise: As long as Powell mentions "inflation is controllable" or "focus on the labor market," improved liquidity expectations will directly impact the 800,000 USD threshold. 3. X variable: Kevin Warsh, the quasi-new chair nominated by Trump, has policy preferences that are harder to grasp than Powell's. The market fears the "policy vacuum period" or "hawkish transition." Before the April meeting, institutional funds may choose to hedge and sell off, leading to significant volatility in altcoins.

10x Research published an analysis on platform X indicating that the price of Bitcoin has been steadily rising recently, with unusual changes in the flow of funds in both the on-chain and derivatives markets. Over the past week, funding rates, capital flows, and several key risk indicators have shown significant adjustments, indicating that the current market trend is more driven by position structure and market positioning.10x Research's analysis suggests that the market is sometimes dominated by fundamentals, technicals, or macro factors, but systematic tracking of market structure and position changes often reveals the "path of least resistance" for prices. Currently, the changes in positions for Ethereum and Bitcoin may drive key options trading for the next market cycle, potentially forming a critical price contest range by the end of March.

According to SoSoValue data, the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a fluctuating adjustment, with the DeFi sector performing relatively well, rising 1.42% in 24 hours. Among them, Hyperliquid (HYPE) increased by 5.02%, and River (RIVER) rose by 7.99%. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are oscillating within a narrow range, maintaining around $70,000 and $2,000 respectively.In other sectors, the SocialFi sector rose by 1.66% in 24 hours, with Toncoin (TON) increasing by 2.45%; the Layer1 sector rose by 0.71%, with Internet Computer (ICP) up by 6.90%; the Layer2 sector increased by 0.42%, with ImmutableX (IMX) rising by 3.82%; the CeFi sector rose by 0.38%, with NEXO (NEXO) up by 1.00%; the Meme sector fell by 0.31%, but Siren (SIREN) increased by 6.48%; the PayFi sector decreased by 0.45%, with SafePal (SFP) rising by 2.04%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiRWA, ssiDeFi, and ssiDePIN indices rose by 2.52%, 2.32%, and 2.12%, respectively.

Due to the repeated impact of global geopolitical uncertainties, gold and silver experienced significant fluctuations today and quickly retreated. According to Gate data, gold (XAUT) is currently priced at $5,153.2, with a 24h high of $5,339.0 and a low of $4,980.5; silver (XAG) is currently priced at $85.42, with a 24h high of $90.31 and a low of $77.99, showing a significant increase in intraday volatility.According to CoinGlass data, the market activity for gold and silver-related contracts has noticeably increased. Among them, the 24-hour trading volume for XAUT on the Gate platform reached $120 million, up 23.53%, ranking among the top three in the industry; the 24-hour trading volume for XAG exceeded $2.331 billion, up 18.09%, ranking second, indicating that funds are accelerating their positioning in metal trading opportunities amid significant fluctuations.Gate has pioneered the metal contract trading sector, providing 24/7 uninterrupted trading, offering users greater strategic flexibility and asset management efficiency in volatile markets. Additionally, Gate TradFi offers XAUUSD (gold) and XAGUSD (silver) contract trading, covering multiple leverage products, including gold at 20x/100x/200x and silver at 10x/20x/50x, further optimizing the overall trading experience while enhancing strategic flexibility.

The "Pizza Index," humorously referred to as the "barometer" for U.S. military actions, has once again shown abnormal fluctuations. The latest data from the monitoring account Pentagon Pizza Watch indicates that the order volume at the Domino's Pizza located about 1.4 miles from the Pentagon surged to 227% of normal levels on Monday evening, raising the alert level to "DOUGHCON 4."Comparing with surrounding stores, some pizza shops reported being "exceptionally busy," while others remained "quiet" or closed, displaying a structural increase in volume. The relevant monitoring model suggests that the sudden spike in orders in this area is typically associated with increased overtime work within the Pentagon.Historically, the "Pentagon Pizza Index" has shown unusual movements before several significant international military actions. Abnormal changes in this index were observed prior to the U.S. military action against Venezuela in January this year, as well as during the escalation of tensions involving Iran.Market analysis points out that the logic behind this index is based on the assumption that when the Pentagon's high-level operations center is dealing with sudden international crises or military deployments, staff work longer hours, leading to a significant increase in nighttime delivery orders. Therefore, this data is viewed by some observers as an alternative forward-looking signal of geopolitical risk. Currently, there has been no official statement from the U.S. regarding related military movements. The market is closely monitoring the evolution of the situation in the Middle East and potential risks of military escalation.

Cryptocurrency trading platform QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $66,000. Over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed the price down to a low of $60,000, but it has since returned to its recent trading range.Analysts pointed out that the initial drop triggered about $300 million in long liquidations, but compared to the disorderly sell-offs earlier this year and in 2025, this deleveraging is relatively mild. Macroeconomic factors are also important, as the prolonged expectations of tightening Federal Reserve policy keep the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets high. Stephen Coltman, macro head at 21Shares, noted that wars have historically had inflationary effects, driving up commodity prices and expanding fiscal deficits, which could complicate the outlook for interest rate cuts even if risk assets initially experience turbulence.In the context of escalating military conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index showed a reading of 15 on Monday, indicating "extreme fear" levels.

According to Jinshi reports, the US Dollar Index DXY is currently fluctuating slightly, with the latest reading at 96.78.

With the U.S. non-farm payrolls for January exceeding expectations by an increase of 130,000 last night, the significant rise of 130,000 has led to a revision in market expectations regarding the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Driven by this macroeconomic variable, global core stock indices have entered a volatile range, attracting a large amount of capital for hedging and position adjustments.Against this backdrop, the open interest in Gate index contracts has seen explosive growth. According to CoinGlass data, in the past 4 hours, the top four positions in open interest growth were all held by this platform: HK50 (Hang Seng Index) increased by 1841.43%, US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) increased by 1126.15%, NAS100 (Nasdaq 100 Index) grew by 392.29%, and SPX500 (S&P 500 Index) grew by 237.01%.Currently, Gate contracts comprehensively cover traditional financial assets including stocks (48 types), metals (11 types), foreign exchange (3 types), commodities (2 types), and indices (13 types), supporting continuous trading 24/7, with a maximum leverage of 100 times. Gate is continuously building a multi-asset contract system that covers mainstream TradFi assets, creating the industry's most comprehensive trading area for index and traditional financial asset contracts.

Gold (XAUT) is showing a gradually stabilizing trend in intraday movements. XAUT reached a high of $5,053.9 and a low of $4,979.2 within 24 hours. As of the time of writing, the XAUT price is fluctuating around $5,025, with a slight increase of 0.03% over the past 24 hours, showing relatively stable overall performance.According to CoinGlass data, the total trading volume of XAUT contracts across the network reached $724 million in 24 hours, with the contract open interest rising to $510 million, a slight increase of 1.90% compared to the previous period. Among them, the trading activity on the Gate platform is particularly prominent, with XAUT contract trading volume exceeding $41.15 million in 24 hours, ranking among the top three in the network.Currently, Gate has launched a metal contract section, providing 24/7 trading and USDT settlement mechanisms, continuously offering users an efficient and flexible one-stop metal trading experience, aiding in cross-market asset allocation and strategy layout. In addition, Gate TradFi has opened trading access on both APP and Web platforms, fully covering CFD trading services for gold, silver, foreign exchange, indices, commodities, and some popular stocks, with a maximum leverage of 500 times.

The founder of crypto market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, analyzed the unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets on February 8th. He indicated that it is likely due to a market-making bot experiencing a liquidation, with losses potentially reaching tens of millions of dollars. The unusual fluctuations were caused by the bot's losses rather than any malicious intent from market makers, and Wintermute was clearly not involved.Evgeny Gaevoy further expressed skepticism regarding rumors of "large institutions facing liquidation" in the market, and even if such cases do exist, they would not have a medium to long-term impact. In contrast to the past collapses of Three Arrows Capital and FTX, where liquidation news spread quickly and there were clear signs indicating the validity of the liquidations, such as institutions seeking rescue, the current market rumors mainly come from anonymous accounts and have not been confirmed by reliable sources.The leverage in this cycle primarily comes from perpetual contracts. Trading platforms no longer take risks with user assets to invest in low-liquidity assets or extend special credit as they did in the past. The tightening of credit has resulted in institutional credit sizes being less than $2 billion, which limits the impact and makes it difficult to trigger a chain liquidation like in 2022.Previous reports indicated that on February 8th, there were unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets, with single-minute amplitudes exceeding 1% and even 3% from 00:05 to 00:17.

According to Jinshi News, the nomination of Waller as the Federal Reserve Chair triggered the largest single-day increase in the dollar since May of last year. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending January 27, fund managers increased their bearish bets on the dollar by $8.3 billion, marking the largest increase since April 2025.At the same time, hedge funds reduced their net long positions in the dollar by $5.1 billion, the largest decrease since July 2024. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group, stated that despite the dollar's rebound, policy uncertainty will persist, and there are still reasons to short the dollar. During the Asian trading session on Monday, the dollar experienced significant volatility, initially rising before turning to decline.

According to Jinshi, the three major U.S. stock indices have shown little short-term volatility, and the market performance is relatively stable.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua expressed on social media:"The community is confused. Trend Research is buying heavily, BMNR and MicroStrategy are buying, Zhao Changpeng is calling for a super bull market cycle, yet the coin prices remain weak and volatile. What is the reason for this? After all, the stock market and gold/silver are skyrocketing. We see several main reasons including:Four-year cycle and the 1011 crashYen interest rate hikesNo new purchases in the U.S. BTC strategic reservesShort sellers taking advantage of the current situation to drive prices downSafe-haven funds in gold, silver, and the stock marketHowever, analyzing from a contrarian perspective, at a time when so many bearish factors are present, ETH remains stable, oscillating around 3000. This is also the reason we decided to build positions after liquidating at 4500. Many people suggested we wait to buy, as there would be better entry points, but investment trading does not have a god's eye view; it is difficult to know what the lowest point will be. The difference between investment and speculation is that we find it hard to engage in short-term trading; even if we have significant unrealized gains, we remain inactive, setting our buy and sell strategies based on a medium to long-term timeline."

易理华发文表示："Recently, the market has been quite volatile. From our investment research perspective, the bears have entered the most frantic phase of selling, but this does not affect the overall bullish trend, especially with the continued strength of the U.S. stock market and the backdrop of the U.S. crypto national strategy. We will not be influenced to change our investment strategy. Moreover, we achieved nearly 2.5 times returns in the last round of ETH and experienced a correction from 2800 to 2100 due to the Middle East black swan event. A few hundred dollars of fluctuation is within the normal range. As the recent bulls have been jokingly referred to across the internet, a single night's sleep can result in fluctuations of hundreds of millions of dollars, resembling a roller coaster. However, the bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish. Furthermore, there is no such thing as guaranteed profits in investing. As always, our ongoing strategy is to accumulate more ETH by deploying various strategies at lower prices. Recently, risk-averse funds have been flowing into the gold and silver markets, but there will definitely be moments for profit-taking and capital return. The lowest tide in the crypto industry will eventually pass."

The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, claims that he does not care about the price fluctuations of gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Robert Kiyosaki states that he continues to buy more gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum to acquire more wealth.

Current Bitcoin is consolidating, and gold is experiencing increased volatility. More and more traders are turning to grid strategies to capture range profits, profiting through automated grid trading systems that leverage price fluctuations rather than the overall direction of price movements.Bybit's spot grid supports adjusting the range at any time after creation, allowing it to continue capturing fluctuations even if the market moves out of the original range.Bybit's contract grid combines "grid shifting," allowing it to move with the market whether it rises or falls, continuously arbitraging.The Bybit Grid Trading Competition is about to start, with the competition running from January 26, 2026, to February 27, 2026 (UTC time 10:00-10:00).