government

The United States just experienced a 43-day federal government shutdown last fall, and a week ago, there was a 4-day short shutdown. Now, another shutdown seems to be looming. The latest shutdown appears likely because Washington's Democrats and Republicans still have disagreements over potential reforms to the Trump administration's immigration enforcement practices.The shutdown from January 31 to February 3 ended thanks to a bipartisan spending plan that provided only two weeks of funding for the Department of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), while negotiations over reforms are still ongoing.This stopgap funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will last until Friday, which means the funding gap for DHS will begin at midnight local time on Saturday. Negotiations have not yet made any breakthroughs, so Washington is preparing for another shutdown, although it will certainly be a partial shutdown, as only the Department of Homeland Security will run out of funds.

According to Cointelegraph, Ray Dalio warned that CBDCs are coming, which will eliminate financial privacy while giving governments the power to tax, seize funds, and cut off the funding sources of political opponents.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before Congress that the U.S. government will not "rescue" the asset by requiring private banks to purchase more Bitcoin during market downturns. He emphasized that neither the Treasury nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has the authority to do so.Bessent also revealed that the $500 million in Bitcoin obtained by the U.S. government through asset forfeiture has appreciated to over $15 billion. According to an executive order signed by Trump in 2025, the U.S. can only increase its strategic reserves through asset forfeiture or budget-neutral strategies (such as converting oil or precious metals into Bitcoin), and not through open market purchases.Although this move has been criticized by some in the Bitcoin community as insufficient, Bitcoin advocates believe that U.S. government purchases could encourage other countries to establish their own strategic reserves, thereby impacting Bitcoin prices and market demand.

QCP Capital stated in an official channel that, on a macro level, the clouds of a government shutdown in the U.S. have dissipated, but the key takeaway is that fiscal standoffs may quickly resurface. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, which means another deadline risk still exists. Additionally, after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone approaching the "USS Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, crude oil prices are rebuilding a moderate geopolitical risk premium, but news on the diplomatic front continues to limit its upside potential.Domestically in the U.S., the political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve is heating up again. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which reintroduces uncertainty. If investors begin to bet on the increased likelihood of larger rate cuts later this year, this could marginally support risk assets and weaken the dollar, but it will also shift attention to the balance sheet. Warsh has indicated a preference for a quicker reduction of the balance sheet, which will directly impact the underlying liquidity mechanisms of the repo market.A disturbing reminder is that pressure may suddenly emerge when reserves are short at critical junctures. The options market has reinforced cautious signals. Even amidst spot rebounds, short-term (front-end) implied volatility still has buying support, and at-the-money option volatility remains elevated, with the term structure trending towards a slight spot premium, indicating that the market is still paying a premium for the risk of recent price gaps. The downward skew has steepened sharply, and butterfly spread options remain expensive, reflecting that demand is concentrated on convexity protection against a collapse.From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a key turning point. If it can be held and positions are rebuilt with funding rates returning to normal, this level seems to be a reasonable place to increase risk exposure. If it fails to hold, market sentiment may quickly shift to a defensive stance.

According to monitoring by the Onchain Lens platform (@OnchainLens), the government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 184 bitcoins (worth approximately $14.09 million) to a new address. Analysts suggest that this operation may be aimed at depositing these assets into a CEX or over-the-counter trading market for sale.

According to Caixin, U.S. President Trump signed a government funding bill in the Oval Office on February 3, ending part of the government "shutdown." Earlier that day, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a funding bill for several federal departments for the remainder of the fiscal year, resolving the deadlock that began with the partial government "shutdown" on January 31.The bill will provide funding for several federal departments until September 30, the end of the fiscal year, and will provide two weeks of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which has recently faced controversy and protests due to immigration enforcement actions, allowing all parties to continue negotiations on improving the department's operations.

According to Jin Shi citing NBC News, U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that he is confident of securing enough votes to end part of the government shutdown by at least Tuesday.

As the U.S. government enters a partial shutdown due to the failure to pass the budget proposal before the deadline, sentiment in the crypto market has turned cautious, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices under pressure, and BTC just dipping below $83,000. Although the Senate has passed a temporary funding measure, the House of Representatives will need to vote after reconvening on Monday, resulting in a technical shutdown over the weekend. Traders have already begun to adopt defensive strategies ahead of the House vote next Monday.Analysts believe that the shutdown itself has limited economic impact, but combined with low liquidity over the weekend and intense political news, it may increase the short-term volatility risk in the crypto market.

According to Jin Ten, in the early morning of the 31st local time, the U.S. government officially began a partial shutdown. Previously, the U.S. Senate passed a spending bill to fund most departments of the federal government and submitted the bill to the House of Representatives for review. However, since House members are not in Washington and will not return until Monday (February 2), the Senate's vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.

According to CoinDesk, as the U.S. Congress failed to complete the full legislative process for the funding bill, the U.S. government is expected to enter a short-term, partial shutdown starting Saturday Eastern Time. However, this event also highlights the issue of "definition precision" in prediction markets. The prediction contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding "whether the U.S. government will shut down" show differences due to varying definitions of triggering conditions. The relevant contracts on Polymarket indicate a shutdown probability of about 88%, while similar contracts on Kalshi have a probability as high as approximately 93%. This discrepancy may be because some contracts consider the formal announcement of a shutdown by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) as the basis for settlement, meaning that even a partial shutdown is regarded as valid. This event underscores the sensitivity of prediction markets to contract triggering conditions, official confirmation entities, and timelines in macro events, with the details of the contracts themselves becoming an important factor influencing the odds.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the Bhutanese government transferred 100.82 BTC to QCP Capital, worth 8.31 million USD, and may continue with subsequent transfers.

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea has proposed to limit the shareholding ratio of individuals or companies in cryptocurrency exchanges to 15-20% to avoid conflicts of interest. The FSC chairman stated that exchanges have become part of the financial system and should establish corresponding governance structures. The proposal views exchanges as public infrastructure but has faced opposition from the ruling Democratic Party and the industry.Currently, major exchanges in South Korea are controlled by single founders or companies: Upbit operator Dunamu's founder holds 26%, Nexon owns over 60% of Korbit, Binance controls over 67% of GOPAX, and Coinone's founder holds 53%. Analysts point out that while the regulatory stance is firm, friction with the government and industry will continue, creating a potential deadlock. If the new regulations are implemented, all major exchanges will need to adjust their equity structures.

According to CoinDesk, the Central Bank of El Salvador announced on Thursday that it has increased its gold reserves by $50 million. After purchasing 9,298 troy ounces of gold, the country's total gold reserves have reached 67,403 ounces, valued at approximately $360 million.Meanwhile, the government, following President Nayib Bukele's commitment to "buy 1 Bitcoin every day," has increased its holdings by 1 Bitcoin on the same day. According to Arkham data, its total Bitcoin holdings have reached 7,547, valued at approximately $635 million based on the Bitcoin price of about $84,000 at the time of writing. President Bukele wrote "We bought the dip again" when retweeting the central bank's announcement, but it was not clear whether he was referring to the purchase of gold or Bitcoin.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the government shutdown is likely to weigh on economic growth in the fourth quarter, but this impact will be reversed.

According to Pie Shield monitoring, the hacker John (Lick), suspected of participating in the $90 million theft from the U.S. government in 2024, has begun depositing funds into Tornado Cash, with 11,037 ETH (approximately $33 million) already transferred to the mixer.Pie Shield stated that this individual is also related to a series of thefts targeting unidentified victims between November and December 2025.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an in-depth analysis in his latest article regarding the recent depreciation of the yen and the decline in Japanese government bond prices, which has caused "anomalies" in the global market. He believes this indicates that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may soon collaborate to directly intervene in the yen and Japanese government bond markets through "money printing" to inject new liquidity into the global fiat currency system.Hayes specifically outlined the possible intervention path: the New York Fed creates dollar reserves and instructs primary dealers like JPMorgan to sell dollars and buy yen in the foreign exchange market to support the exchange rate, and may invest the acquired yen in Japanese government bonds to lower their yields. This operation will lead to an expansion of the "foreign currency-denominated assets" item on the Fed's balance sheet, essentially meaning that the Fed is taking on the interest rate risk of the yen exchange rate and Japanese government bonds through money printing.He analyzed the motives and consequences of this move: aimed at stabilizing the yen and lowering Japanese government bond yields to prevent Japanese investors from massively selling U.S. Treasuries, avoiding uncontrolled increases in U.S. Treasury yields, while enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. exports.This process will increase global dollar liquidity and may simultaneously boost the euro and yuan exchange rates. Hayes pointed out that this "non-QE" style of balance sheet expansion will ultimately provide upward momentum for risk assets, including Bitcoin. In terms of trading strategy, he stated that a rapid strengthening of the yen against the dollar is usually a signal for reducing risk assets. Bitcoin's decline due to the strengthening yen means he will not increase his risk exposure until it is confirmed that the Fed is intervening in the yen and Japanese government bond markets by expanding its balance sheet.He has closed positions in leveraged Bitcoin-related assets such as Strategy and Metaplanet, stating that he will re-enter if his judgment proves correct. In the meantime, his fund Maelstrom continues to increase its holdings in Zcash, while positions in other quality DeFi tokens remain unchanged. He indicated that if the Fed indeed expands its balance sheet to intervene in the currency and bond markets, he will increase his holdings in DeFi assets such as ENA, ETHFI, PENDLE, and LDO.

According to Criptonoticias, the city government of Sanxenxo in the Galicia region of Spain suffered a ransomware attack, with hackers encrypting thousands of administrative documents and blocking system access, demanding a ransom of $5,000 in Bitcoin.The attack occurred on January 26, causing the municipal servers to completely crash, affecting the operation of essential services in the city, which has over 17,000 residents. The city government has reported the incident to the Spanish Civil Guard, refused to pay the ransom, and stated that it is enabling daily backups to restore the system.