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Bernstein: The compromise clause on the yield of the CLARITY Act will strengthen Circle's competitive advantage

Bernstein stated in its latest research report that the recently reached compromise on stablecoin yield in the U.S. CLARITY Act is structurally beneficial for Circle and the USDC ecosystem.The report indicates that the current version of the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest to passive holders that is "economically equivalent" to bank deposits, but allows reward mechanisms related to real transactions, payments, and usage behaviors to continue. Bernstein believes this means that Circle's current model, which relies on partners like Coinbase to provide USDC reward programs, will gain regulatory recognition, while also limiting the industry's ability to compete for market share through high yields.Bernstein pointed out that the bill actually reinforces the positioning of stablecoins as "payment tools" rather than "deposit substitutes," which helps protect Circle's current business model that relies on reserve income. It continues to give Circle an "outperform" rating and a target price of $190.Data shows that the total supply of global dollar stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC together accounting for about 97% of the market share. Bernstein noted that USDC's share in on-chain payments and wallet transfers is continuously increasing, with its payment share in the AI Agent payment protocol x402 exceeding 99%.Additionally, Bernstein mentioned that Circle's launched ARC chain has completed a total of 244 million testnet transactions, and its ARC token presale previously raised $222 million, with investors including a16z crypto, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, and BlackRock among others.However, the report also pointed out that the CLARITY Act still needs to complete several legislative procedures before it can officially take effect, including a full Senate vote with 60 votes and coordination with the House version. Polymarket currently predicts a probability of about 62% for it to pass by 2026.

Analysis: The CLARITY Act could strengthen the position of the US dollar stablecoin, with Asia potentially gaining an advantage in the yield competition

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee recently advanced the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, marking a step forward in the regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market. Research institution HashKey Group pointed out that if the bill is enacted, it will significantly enhance compliance certainty for institutional investors participating in the crypto market and strengthen the core position of the U.S. dollar stablecoin in the global digital financial system.Analysts believe that a clearer U.S. regulatory framework will encourage banks, asset management institutions, and sovereign funds to more widely adopt compliant stablecoins for cross-border payments, settlements, and fund management, especially with more evident demand in the Asian market. However, at the same time, the U.S. restrictions on "yield-bearing stablecoins" may create structural spillover effects. HashKey researcher Tim Sun stated that if the U.S. strictly limits the stablecoin yield mechanisms, capital may flow to the Asian market or indirectly seek higher yields through "wrapped products."The report noted that the Asian market (such as Hong Kong and Singapore) features active cross-border trade, frequent capital flows, and local currencies that are more susceptible to external shocks. In an environment of high U.S. dollar financing costs, U.S. dollar stablecoins will become an important liquidity tool. However, the analysis also emphasized that this competition is not a zero-sum game. As the CLARITY Act progresses, the global competitive focus may shift from "trading platforms and token issuance" to "stablecoin liquidity channels and control over financial infrastructure," meaning who can more efficiently connect U.S. dollar liquidity, regional assets, and compliant financial channels.

Glassnode: The synchronized strength of buying in both the futures and spot markets has driven Bitcoin up to $82,000, but the market has now reached a state of balance

Glassnode's latest weekly report indicates that Bitcoin slowly climbed from $77,000 to $82,000 last week, with buying pressure continuing to support during the pullback, even as momentum began to cool near local highs. The spot CVD surged, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and a firm belief in price increases. Meanwhile, spot trading volume also increased, indicating that the recent price trend gained more support with heightened investor participation. However, the easing of price momentum suggests that buying and selling pressures are becoming more balanced, implying that the market may be entering a stabilization phase.The situation in the futures market is similar, with a rise in risk appetite. The increase in open interest indicates heightened speculative activity, with investors willing to take on more risk; the perpetual contract CVD surged, indicating sustained bullish momentum. However, the decline in long funding rates suggests a shift towards bearish sentiment, and bullish sentiment may have weakened.In the options market, the demand for downside protection has decreased, while open interest has increased, indicating a shift in market expectations towards neutral or slightly bullish. However, the volatility spread has surged significantly, indicating that the risks reflected in options pricing are much higher than the actual risks, reflecting a notable increase in participant uncertainty.In summary, supported by stronger on-chain activity, healthier profitability, and more stable holder positions, Bitcoin's market structure continues to improve. Although bullish sentiment is strengthening, the slowdown in capital inflows and cautious market sentiment suggest that the market remains sensitive to changes in risk appetite.
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