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Warnings of a dollar collapse resurface, with Bridgewater's Dalio stating that $39 trillion in debt could trigger a crisis, as Wall Street bets on a shift of funds from gold to Bitcoin

Bitcoin bulls add macro narrative. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the $39 trillion debt crisis in the U.S. could lead to a long-term devaluation or even collapse of the dollar, while JPMorgan analysts believe that the market is witnessing a rotation from gold to Bitcoin in the currency devaluation trade. Dalio states that the current annual spending in the U.S. is about $7 trillion, with revenues of only about $5 trillion, and that the long-term fiscal deficit and debt expansion are approaching historically dangerous levels. He believes that during similar periods, fiat currencies tend to continuously devalue, while gold benefits.Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou points out that as the conflict in Iran escalates, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs continues to exceed that of gold ETFs, with some funds viewing Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against dollar devaluation. Reports mention that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 30%, although it is still below the historical high of $126,000 in 2025. Notable investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk, have also recently expressed concerns about the long-term status of the dollar as a reserve currency.

Kraken partners with MoneyGram to launch cryptocurrency withdrawal services in over a hundred countries and reveals that the IPO process is "80% complete"; MARA Holdings' Q1 financial report is scheduled for May 11, with consensus expectations of a loss of $2.34 per share

According to BBX data, this week the outflow channels of cryptocurrency infrastructure and the forward-looking financial reports of mining companies are advancing on two fronts, with the core dynamics as follows:Kraken (parent company Payward, Inc.) and the global payment network MoneyGram announced the establishment of a global strategic partnership through PR Newswire on May 5. Kraken users can withdraw cash exchanged for cryptocurrency in hundreds of fiat currencies at nearly 500,000 MoneyGram physical locations covering over 100 countries; initially focusing on cryptocurrency outflows, with plans to expand to local bank deposits and cross-border remittance flows; Kraken is responsible for customer identity verification, while MoneyGram provides licensed remittance services and compliance frameworks. Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed in an interview with Fortune that the company's IPO progress is "close to 80%," having previously submitted its confidential S-1 filing to the SEC. Bloomberg estimates the current valuation at approximately $13.3 billion based on a $200 million equity investment from Deutsche Börse.MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MARA) officially announced on ir.mara.com on May 4 that its Q1 2026 financial report will be released after the market closes on May 11, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 PM (ET); analyst consensus expects an EPS of approximately -$2.34 and revenue of about $184.2 million. As of the end of 2025, the company holds 53,822 BTC, with full-year revenue for 2025 at $907 million (up 38% year-on-year) and a hash rate of 66.4 EH/s; during Q1 2026, the price of BTC fell from about $87,000 to around $68,000, putting pressure on the mining company's total costs. The market will focus on the progress of its AI/HPC data center transformation and the rollout pace of the Starwood JV, which exceeds 1 gigawatt capacity.The U.S. Department of Labor released the April non-farm employment data on May 8, showing an increase of 115,000 jobs, nearly double the market expectation; Bitcoin maintained a range of $79,000---$80,000 after the data was released, with the market interpreting this "soft landing" signal as favorable for risk assets—an unheated job market means an increased probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates, keeping the mid-term liquidity environment for cryptocurrency stable. The monthly net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in April was approximately $2.44 billion, the strongest single month data of the year; April's monthly close rose by 16%, and if May's closing price remains above $76,000, it will confirm three consecutive months of positive monthly closes for Bitcoin, which Fundstrat founder Tom Lee defines as a "bear market ending signal."

DeepSeek's financing negotiations with Alibaba have broken down, with ecological binding and control rights differences becoming the focal point

DeepSeek's financing negotiations with Alibaba have broken down. DeepSeek launched a massive financing round, attracting major companies like Tencent and Alibaba to participate, but the two sides ultimately failed to reach an agreement. The core conflict lies in Alibaba's desire to strengthen its AI ecosystem through investment, while DeepSeek, as an independent model company, insists on minimizing binding terms and maintaining technological independence, unwilling to accept excessive ecosystem ties.DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has long rejected external equity financing. Although this time he has opened the door for the first time, his bottom line remains unchanged, with the most emphasis on offers with "the least additional conditions." DeepSeek's current financing round is valued at approximately 300 billion RMB (about 45 billion USD), with the fundraising focus on supplementing computing power and R&D funds, while also providing a market valuation anchor for employees to retain talent. Tencent had proposed to subscribe for up to 20% of the shares, but this was politely declined by DeepSeek as they did not want to relinquish a large proportion of control. Ultimately, the China National Investment Fund and others may lead the investment, with relatively loose terms that align more closely with DeepSeek's technological idealism.
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