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september

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Next week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls set the path for September, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book reveals the inflation bottom line

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

Analyst: Waller rekindles the possibility of a rate hike in September, but the key still depends on the September non-farm payroll and CPI data

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Waller mentioned in his forward guidance what the market expected him to say, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a rate hike in September. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that anti-inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, but he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target.Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, the market significantly repriced the September Federal Reserve decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the new chair's leadership, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that the recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a rate hike in September.

HyENA announces the cessation of operations, and all markets will be gradually removed from August 31 to September 2

HyENA announced that it will cease operations and close all markets, with user funds unaffected. The official statement indicated that HyENA was built on the Hyperliquid HIP-3 standard and Ethena's USDe, allowing traders to earn profits while using USDe as margin for trading perpetual contracts, processing a cumulative trading volume of over $4 billion, serving more than 12,000 traders, and distributing nearly 2.5 million USDe rewards to margin users.The official statement noted that with the further alignment of Hyperliquid and USDC, the development space for USDe margin on the platform has changed, leading to the decision to terminate HyENA. Markets will be delisted in the order of one market per hour from August 31 to September 2, with positions automatically settled at the final marked price, and margins returned to the spot balance. HLPe deposits can be claimed at a 1:1 ratio along with accumulated rewards and withdrawn via Upshift, with the final reward distribution date set for August 27 and the final affiliate commission payment date on September 9.Additionally, the Ethena exchange reward program ended in June 2026, and HyENA points will remain in their final state, with no snapshots, conversions, or distributions taking place, and they hold no monetary value. The official emphasized that HyENA has no tokens and no issuance plans.

first_img The Clarity Act has been postponed to September, and banks are still accelerating their layout of tokenized deposits

Vassilis Tziokas from Matter Labs pointed out in a CoinDesk article that the U.S. Senate has postponed the Clarity Act until September. This market structure bill failed to complete the final vote before the August recess, meaning that regulatory rules for the digital asset market will take weeks to be implemented. Meanwhile, banks are not waiting for regulation; JPMorgan has processed over $30 trillion in transactions through the Kinexys platform and launched the deposit token JPMD, while Citigroup operates cross-border Treasury token services. A clearinghouse, in collaboration with 17 major financial institutions, plans to achieve on-chain tokenized deposit clearing by 2027.The article argues that the interoperability of interbank tokenized deposits does not come from messaging standards or token bridges, but is realized through clearing mechanisms: the sending bank redeems tokens, the receiving bank issues its own tokens, inter-institutional obligations are recorded and netted, and ultimately settled in central bank currency. The engineering challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying privacy, neutrality, and verifiability; each institution must operate its own ledger, prove transfers through cryptography without exposing underlying data, and anchor to a neutral settlement facility owned by no participants.The author notes that the Clarity Act will not directly regulate tokenized deposits, but it can clarify the boundaries of the digital asset market and improve the stablecoin framework established by the GENIUS Act. The Global Financial Markets Association's report in April 2026 lists unresolved gaps such as unified processing of cross-border tokenized deposits and guidelines for off-network transfers, which are regulatory unlocking points for interbank tokenized fund interoperability. In the face of regulatory uncertainty, banks rationally choose to isolate, and each month of delay rewards closed gardens.

first_img The MultiversX Supernova upgrade will decouple consensus from execution, with the mainnet expected to activate on September 10

The Supernova upgrade of MultiversX decouples consensus from execution, allowing the network to reach consensus on blocks before processing transactions. Before the upgrade, block production followed a sequential model: proposers selected transactions, executed them locally, and submitted blocks containing the results, while validators had to re-execute the same transactions before voting, making execution part of the consensus critical path. Supernova changes this order: proposers select transactions and directly propose blocks without prior execution; validators can immediately vote once they confirm the proposal complies with protocol rules, while execution occurs asynchronously in the background, with execution results typically referenced and notarized in the next block header, lagging consensus by about one block (approximately 600 milliseconds).To address the validity verification issues brought by decoupling, Supernova introduces a virtual memory pool state that tracks pending nonces, expected balance consumption, and transactions that have been proposed but whose execution results have not yet reached consensus, providing proposers with a forward-looking account view. Meanwhile, the Execution-Result Inclusion Estimator (EIE) limits the number of execution results that can be referenced in a block based on the capacity that the minimum specification node can safely handle; an automatic backpressure mechanism reduces block capacity when execution lags. Supernova has been producing 600-millisecond blocks on the testnet and devnet since August 20, with the mainnet expected to activate on September 10, 2026.

The "inflation thunder" will be revealed on the eve of Jackson Hole! The core PCE in July may rise to 3.3%, and the expectation of interest rate hikes in September is heating up

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The market expects the overall PCE in July to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%; the core PCE is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year it remains at 3.3%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.It is noteworthy that rising prices in the AI industry chain, high valuations in the stock market pushing up portfolio management fees, and the situation in the Middle East leading to increased energy costs may all become potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that stock market valuation factors alone could contribute approximately 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase in core PCE for July.What draws more market attention is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to comprehensively adjust the PCE statistical methods by the end of September, which may involve adjustments to the price calculations for categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may also retroactively revise historical data, increasing the difficulty of interpreting inflation data.Currently, the market's views on the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are increasingly divided. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also waiting for this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and subsequent interest rate policies.
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