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Flash

first_img Ripple has established a four-phase quantum-resistant migration plan for the XRP Ledger

Ayo Akinyele, Senior Director of Engineering at Ripple, stated that the company is developing a four-phase quantum-resistant migration plan for the XRP Ledger, aiming to complete the transition before quantum computers become a real threat. The plan includes assessing the network's exposure, testing quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions, running existing security systems in parallel with quantum-resistant alternatives, and preparing emergency response pathways for scenarios where quantum computing advances exceed expectations.Akinyele emphasized that migration is not just about replacing a cryptographic algorithm, but requires more flexible infrastructure, stronger key management, and clearer upgrade paths. The XRP Ledger has supported changing the keys that control accounts without altering the accounts themselves, a feature that is expected to reduce the difficulty of future migrations, but independent validators on the network still need to coordinate any broader rule changes.Meanwhile, Anthropic's model last month reduced the workload required to break leading post-quantum signature candidates by 67 million times, and Bitcoin and Ethereum developers also released their respective migration plans this week. Akinyele pointed out that AI and quantum computing are different technologies, but they are driving financial infrastructure to evolve in the same direction, as AI agents begin to trade and pay autonomously, raising new requirements for payment infrastructure that is always online and natively internet-based.

first_img Analysis: Federal Reserve Chairman Waller downplays the decline in inflation, Bitcoin falls below $80,000

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin failed to effectively break through the $80,000 mark, with BTC/USD dropping to $78,442 on the Bitstamp platform, a decline of about 1% for the day, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a cautiously toned speech in Jackson Hole. In his speech, Walsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target and downplayed the significance of the recent decline in CPI and PCE data.Walsh stated that although these broad inflation indicators have significantly retreated from their highs a few years ago, the progress over the past two years has been relatively modest. The better-than-expected PCE and CPI readings this summer do not indicate that the underlying trend has materially improved. He also noted that the forward guidance, a conventional practice introduced during the financial crisis, "is now outdated" and will not return in the future. U.S. stocks were not weighed down by his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both rising by about 0.5%.On-chain data shows that there is a dense resistance zone between the current spot price and $86,000, which suppresses upward momentum. QCP Capital analysis pointed out that even if the price breaks through, the derivatives market needs to support it by controlling funding rates and the growth rate of open interest. The key is whether the subsequent market movement is driven by spot participation or leveraged positions. As of the time of writing, BTC/USD has risen 26.35% this month, marking the best August performance since 2017.

first_img Ethena expands basis trading to stock perpetual contracts, expecting that RWA perpetuals will surpass crypto derivatives within 12-24 months

The cryptocurrency protocol Ethena, which issued $4 billion in synthetic US dollars (USDe), announced plans to expand its basis trading strategy to stock perpetual contracts. According to Ethena's data, the open interest in stock perpetual contracts has grown tenfold to $6.2 billion since March. Over the past few months, the funding rates on Hyperliquid and Binance averaged approximately 14% and 17.5%, respectively, while the Bitcoin funding rate during the same period was only in the low single digits.Ethena pointed out that the average Bitcoin funding rate was 11% in 2024, 4.9% in 2025, and has dropped to 2.2% as of August 11 this year. In contrast, stock perpetual contracts had positive funding rates on 94% of trading days on Hyperliquid and 97% on Binance, with a median funding rate of 13.9%, while Bitcoin's was 3.9%. Co-founder Guy Young stated that stocks tend to rise in the long term, creating a continuous demand for leveraged longs to pay fees, and that the funding rate for stocks has almost no correlation with Bitcoin, providing USDe with a revenue source that relies less on the crypto market.The global stock market had a market capitalization of approximately $166.5 trillion in July, far exceeding the crypto market's approximately $2.2 trillion. This expansion is one of Ethena's initiatives to seek new revenue sources after the supply of USDe fell from a peak of about $15 billion to below $5 billion. Last week, it also announced a $1 billion financing arrangement with FalconX.

first_img Analysis: The demand for AI infrastructure is longer than that of the internet, and general programming still drives ARR

Analysis of the AI semiconductor and infrastructure cycle indicates that the demand for AI infrastructure will continue to exceed that of the internet era, as user penetration and per capita token are multiplied and converted into tokens, significantly raising the ceiling. User penetration has surpassed 50%, with growth primarily coming from the still-early per capita token; the median monthly AI spending per employee in U.S. companies is about $12, which could long-term approach around 10% of white-collar salaries, approximately $1,000 per month, leaving nearly two orders of magnitude of space in between. Unlike the flat subscriptions and extremely low marginal hardware consumption of the internet, the high costs of inference make the marginal cost of a single access higher, requiring greater infrastructure intensity.After developers program, the next ARR growth will still mainly come from broad programming: non-programmers use programming infrastructure to complete non-programming tasks across industries, with programming becoming the default execution kernel for agents. Tasks related to broad programming account for about 60% to 70% of ARR. As of June 2026, Codex accounted for 64% of the total output tokens from Codex and ChatGPT among OpenAI's enterprise clients; since February, Codex has seen a much higher weekly growth in verticals such as law, sales recruitment, and marketing compared to engineering. In Anthropic's revenue, narrow development/software accounts for about 40%, while finance and insurance exceed 20%, with law, life sciences, retail, and others also having considerable shares.The demand-side token growth logic remains, with a high overlap between funders and beneficiaries.

first_img SemiAnalysis: HBF non-HBM alternative, cost and heat dissipation still have uncertainties

P Equity Research and SemiAnalysis researcher Nick Doyle and others discussed high bandwidth flash (HBF) in X Space. Nick stated that it is still too early to determine how much the cost premium of HBF relative to HBM can shrink; existing data mostly comes from vendor claims, such as Sandisk stating that the cost per bit is about one-eighth that of HBM. Yields, testing, and other factors will improve with scale, but structural costs such as TSV, stacking, and pSLC mode will always exist, and durability is a key unknown; if wear exceeds expectations, costs will rise.The application scenarios for HBF are narrow, targeting only AI inference, especially low batch and long context MoE models, and it is not a substitute for HBM. The actual bandwidth target is about 1.6 TB/s, which is at the HBM3E level, suitable for sequential reads to load model weights, more aligned with the capacity needs of a small number of GPUs in local or private enterprises, rather than ultra-large-scale bandwidth scenarios. Heat dissipation reliability has not yet been resolved; flash memory will degrade faster at high temperatures next to GPUs, and mitigation measures such as UCIe separation and daily refresh have yet to be validated.In terms of manufacturing, Sandisk/Kioxia has experience with 3D NAND, and SK Hynix complements HBM-style stacking capabilities, but mass production is still to be confirmed. Overall, storage is shifting towards a specialized layered market, with NAND shortages expected to continue until 2028, and HBF may further impact supply and demand.

first_img Analysis: Bitcoin remains steady around $80,000, traders focus on Waller's Jackson Hole speech

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently stable around $80,000, with traders focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The annual seminar hosted by the Kansas City Fed opened on Wednesday, and Walsh will speak on Friday morning. Current inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and long-term borrowing costs are near multi-year highs, with the Fed maintaining the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75% in recent months.Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer of Risk Dimensions, expects Walsh to keep the option of raising interest rates but not to raise rates before the midterm elections. The July PCE inflation rate reached 3.7%, partly driven by rising energy prices following the Iran war. Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer of Hashdex, stated that Bitcoin does not directly respond to the September interest rate decision but follows global liquidity and long-end yield curve trends, similar to the drivers of gold. Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury bond purchases after the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, which pushed Bitcoin higher; Kerbage described this surge as "primarily a liquidity event."This year's Jackson Hole meeting focuses on financial innovation, payments, and policy, with stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and faster settlement systems becoming the discussion highlights. Kerbage believes that if Walsh views these technologies as part of the financial system rather than risks to be curtailed, the impact could extend beyond Bitcoin, with smart contract networks and protocols handling tokenized payments and settlements benefiting more directly from this shift.

Analysis: The Bitcoin "Realized Market Value Momentum Indicator" has turned positive after 93 days, signaling a recovery in on-chain capital flow

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

first_img Chainalysis report: CARF only covers 14% of on-chain taxable crypto activities

Chainalysis' latest report shows that the potential taxable on-chain cryptocurrency activity globally will reach at least $457 billion by 2025, while the OECD's Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) covers only about 14% of the on-chain taxable activities. The report estimates that the United States contributes approximately $112.6 billion, with North America leading at $134.6 billion, followed closely by the European Union at $125.1 billion.This estimate includes income generated from realized gains, mining, staking, and lending, as well as payments denominated in crypto assets, but does not include trading activities within centralized exchanges. The CARF will start data collection on January 1, 2026, across 48 jurisdictions, including the UK and EU, requiring eligible crypto platforms to collect customer and tax resident information and report transaction data to domestic tax authorities for cross-border sharing.The report points out that the CARF's design, centered around crypto intermediaries, is the main reason for the coverage gap. Colby Mangels, a former OECD advisor involved in the development of the CARF, stated that the framework is designed around intermediaries that conduct crypto transactions as their business, which leaves a significant amount of decentralized finance activities outside the reporting scope due to the lack of centralized operators or custodial relationships. Mangels noted that tax authorities are focusing on the progress of anti-money laundering regulations, including when DeFi platforms or their operators should be considered regulated crypto service providers.

SemiAnalysis Founder: By 2028, most of the new AI computing power will belong to two companies

In the latest podcast, SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel predicts that by 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic may account for 70% to 80% of the world's new AI computing power, with the total computing power scale potentially exceeding 100GW. Patel stated that the two companies currently account for about 30% of the world's annual new computing power, and this proportion is still rising rapidly.Patel pointed out that the business model of leading AI laboratories is changing, with a significant increase in the efficiency of AI computing power output. Currently, Anthropic's revenue per megawatt of computing power has reached about $50 million and may further rise to $100 million. This allows OpenAI and Anthropic to procure or lease computing power at high prices ranging from $25 million to $50 million per megawatt.Patel expects that global AI-related capital expenditures will reach about $11 trillion from 2024 to 2029, with over $5 trillion needing to be financed through debt. Due to the potential return on investment of AI infrastructure being far higher than that of traditional industries, tech giants may accept higher financing costs, thereby pushing up overall credit rates and squeezing the valuations of traditional assets and highly leveraged economies. Additionally, Patel believes that the new computing power may not primarily be used for providing model inference services externally, but may instead flow more towards internal research and development and self-improvement of models within AI laboratories.
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