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U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with long-term yields leading the drop. Market data shows that the yield on the U.S. 20-year Treasury bond is 5.434%, down 14.6 basis points for the day; the 30-year Treasury bond yield is 5.385%, down 14.1 basis points for the day; the 10-year Treasury bond yield is 5.054%, down 13.6 basis points for the day. The U.S. 7-year Treasury bond yield fell 13.5 basis points for the day, and the 5-year Treasury bond yield dropped 11.5 basis points.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that there has been no substantial change in the technical assessment of Bitcoin. The fifth wave of the first wave has ended at the expected position, and the second wave adjustment may be coming next. This adjustment wave could drop to $74,600, corresponding to the usual 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.Currently, Bitcoin has fallen below the 21-period EMA and is at the support level of the 50-period EMA, which is seen as a strong support; the 200-period EMA is around $75,800, leaving some space from the current price. The RSI has returned to the neutral level of 50, but the gap with the 14-period SMA has widened.Darkfost believes this indicates that a corrective rebound in wave B may occur before the final wave C arrives. He stated that there are currently no concerning signals, and the mid-term trend of Bitcoin remains positive.

Bitfinex stated that the average holding cost for long-term Bitcoin holders is approximately $49,300, with a current unrealized profit of about 64%; the average cost for recent buyers is around $74,400, with a current unrealized profit of only about 9%.Bitfinex pointed out that if the BTC price continues to decline, recent buyers may face greater selling pressure first. In contrast, long-term holders have a thicker buffer of unrealized profit.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

According to the market information platform Liquid247.xyz, the current price of BTC is $81,452. The thickest order book is on Binance perpetual: sell orders amount to $48.2242 million, buy orders amount to $46.5586 million, with sell orders exceeding buy orders by $1.6656 million.The spot buy orders on Binance are thicker than the sell orders, but the scale is smaller than the perpetual. Since the sell orders on Binance perpetual are thicker, if a large buy or sell suddenly occurs, exchanges with thinner order books will be affected first, and price fluctuations will be more pronounced.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute holds approximately 87.34 million USD in open positions on Hyperliquid, with short positions around 75.45 million USD, accounting for 86.4%; long positions around 11.89 million USD, accounting for 13.6%.Current floating profit is approximately 3.97 million USD, with a historical cumulative profit of about 209.79 million USD. Its largest short positions include approximately 18.33 million USD in ETH, approximately 12.07 million USD in SOL, and approximately 10.72 million USD in SP500.

According to the official announcement, the Osmosis community forum has initiated a discussion on the proposal to "Terminate OSMO Inflation Issuance." The proposal aims to stop the mint module from daily issuing OSMO, with staking rewards coming entirely from protocol revenue; based on the current burn rate, approximately 2% of the OSMO supply is destroyed each year, and there will be no new issuance to hedge.The target date for the proposal to go on-chain is October 20, and the daily vesting release for developers will also be paused. There are approximately 51.9 million OSMO remaining in the vesting module account, and any future releases will require a separate governance decision.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell as the market increased bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after the inflation data was released. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY rose nearly 40 points in the short term, currently reported at 102.52.In addition, the market has increased bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates three more times before the end of 2027.

An advisor to Zelensky stated that SpaceX has set speed limits on the terminals used by the Ukrainian military.

On October 14, Jinshi Data reported that the AI company Anthropic has requested the federal appeals court in Washington to reconsider the ruling made on September 25. This ruling upheld the Trump administration's decision to classify Anthropic as a supply chain risk enterprise that poses a threat to U.S. national security.Anthropic argued that the judge misinterpreted the law, allowing the Department of Defense to take action without any prior determination procedures. The company also stated that there is clear evidence indicating that this classification is retaliation for its statements on artificial intelligence safety issues.

According to the market information platform Liquid247.xyz, the current price of BTC is $83,443. The thickest order book is on Binance perpetual: sell orders amount to $42.0836 million, buy orders amount to $32.5048 million, with sell orders exceeding buy orders by $9.5788 million.Coinbase's spot sell orders are also thicker than buy orders, but the scale is smaller than that of Binance perpetual. If a large buy or sell order suddenly appears, exchanges with thinner order books will be affected first, and price fluctuations will be more pronounced.

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

Binance will launch bStocks tokenized securities trading pairs: BBB/USDT, MDBB/USDT, PENGB/USDT, and UVXYB/USDT on October 14 at 20:00, and will enable spot algorithm trading bots and smart position trading bot services.Within one hour of the bStocks launch, users can exchange for BTC, USDT, or other tokens without any fees, and the zero maker fee promotion will last until November 1 at 07:59.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past 12 hours, 5 newly created wallets received 1,162 Bitcoins from Wintermute, worth 96.77 million dollars. Lookonchain stated that this may indicate that a certain whale purchased the aforementioned Bitcoins through Wintermute.

CoinShares pointed out in its latest biweekly market report that last week, the net outflow of the U.S. spot BTC ETF was $679 million, with a single-day net outflow of $485 million on Wednesday, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since June; the ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, accumulating nearly $700 million in outflows over nine consecutive trading days.BTC approached $87,000 on October 5, then fell back to about $80,300, and subsequently rebounded to around $83,500. The report shows that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has risen back to about 40% of the long-term average, while the correlation with inflation-linked bonds continues to strengthen.CoinShares believes that the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be an important variable: if the core CPI rises by 0.3% month-on-month, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, putting BTC at risk of testing $80,000 again.

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials expect another interest rate hike within the year, with the market pricing in a roughly 20% probability of a rate increase by the end of October. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.24%. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% last week, reaching a historic high, while the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. The rise in U.S. stocks was supported by expectations of corporate earnings growth, while the cryptocurrency market lacked similar earnings support and relied more on new capital inflows.As capital flows reversed, the cryptocurrency assets' sustained upward momentum over the previous six weeks became difficult to maintain. Bitcoin fell back from around $86,000 to $87,000 last week, dipping to about $80,400 on Thursday before rebounding above $83,000 and regaining the range high of $82,500. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million last week, the largest single-week outflow since late June, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of about $542 million.The cryptocurrency market has lost the support of capital inflows, while U.S. stocks still have earnings growth as a cushion. Therefore, in the short term, the market outlook will only remain optimistic if long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF funds turn back to net inflows. Before these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset that is more sensitive to U.S. stock volatility and has higher downside risks, making it inadvisable to chase low-quality altcoins. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above the 5.64% reached on September 30, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance around $82,500, Wintermute will adopt a cautious stance. This week, attention should be focused on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether energy inflation is spreading to core inflation, as well as the financial performance of financial institutions and AI-related companies.

ARC Terminal announced its return on October 13, launching AI-driven perpetual contract trading features. The platform captures market narratives through The Feed, which are then transformed into trading strategies by the AI agent ANIMA. Users only need to confirm to execute, supporting natural language commands like "go long on SOL, risk $40." ANIMA will automatically generate entry points, take-profit, and exit points, displaying them on the chart.The platform currently supports nearly 300 markets, with unified account balances, initially integrating with Hyperliquid, and will expand to more exchanges in the future. ARC Terminal stated that points previously earned by users are eligible for participation in future incentive programs, with all time spent on the platform counting towards future rewards. According to the roadmap, it will introduce more exchange integrations, a complete roadmap from the fourth quarter to next year, competitions with real prize pools, early points holder reward programs, and new supporters and partners.

According to Metaplanet's announcement, the company has terminated the stock repurchase program of approximately $481 million (75 billion yen) set for October 2025, during which no shares were repurchased. The company stated that it prioritized using borrowed funds to purchase Bitcoin during this period.The company also mentioned that it prioritized advancing mergers and acquisitions, such as the acquisition of Metaplanet securities and strategic investments in Super League Enterprise, and was unable to implement repurchases while holding significant undisclosed information. Metaplanet announced the establishment of a new stock repurchase program of approximately $385 million (60 billion yen) on the same day.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that on-chain data shows the average cost basis for Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) is $48,600, with the current price approximately 72% higher than their cost. This group has remained profitable since January 2023, with the last close to the cost line occurring in March 2023.The average cost basis for LTH peaked at $49,500 on July 30 and has since decreased by 1.7%. Since August 1, there have been 60 negative weekly changes out of 74 days, with the largest single-week decline being 0.34% on August 25, and the current reading is -0.06%. The analyst pointed out that this decline is still moderate, and if it continues to drop, it would indicate an acceleration of selling, while a return to positive values would mean that long-term holders are starting to accumulate again.