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Analysis: It is not common for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October or November before the midterm elections, and the market is paying attention to the remarks by Waller

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

The 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will open on October 19, with plans to release the digital renminbi system

According to Beijing Daily, the 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 19 to 22 on Financial Street in Beijing, with over 400 guests from more than 40 countries and regions attending. This is the fifteenth session, approved by the State Council, with the theme "Openness · Cooperation · Inclusiveness ------ Building a New Ecosystem for Global Financial Development Together."The annual conference plans to hold a main forum and parallel forums with a total of 21 topic activities and 3 special conferences. Among them, the Insurance Conference will be hosted for the first time by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Investment Conference will make its debut, forming a matrix of special conferences with the Financial Technology Conference. More than a hundred achievements, including credit risk control strategy sandbox agents and quantum fusion algorithm intelligent evolution platforms, will be launched for the first time. The annual conference will expand its African sub-venue for the first time, initiate a three-city connection between Beijing, Hong Kong, and London, and hold 7 events in 5 overseas sub-venues in Hong Kong, London, Paris, Toronto, and Nairobi.The Financial Technology Conference in 2026 will further innovate its format and expand its scale, setting up 13 topic activities around cutting-edge issues such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and smart finance. The People's Bank of China will host the Chengfang Financial Technology Forum within the framework of the conference and hold a seminar on artificial intelligence financial applications and risk prevention and control, continuing to organize a series of activities such as the Financial Technology Application Scenario Competition, and plans to release relevant achievements such as the central bank's digital renminbi system and digital renminbi smart contract ecological service framework.
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