us-iran

According to Jinshi reports, as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates over the weekend, the market bets that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, leading to a decline in gold prices. Following a drop of more than 2% last week, gold is currently trading around $3,995 per ounce.Escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including an attack on a key oil facility in Kuwait, have caused oil prices to soar. Tehran has stated that the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is effectively null and void, intensifying concerns about potential severe disruptions to critical energy supplies.

According to Jinshi, as the situation between the U.S. and Iran escalates again due to the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. President Trump stated that he will deliver a national address at 9 PM on July 14 (9 AM on July 15 Beijing time). Trump did not specify the content of the speech, but this statement indicates that the war with Iran is actually accelerating again, whereas both sides were supposed to enter negotiations after the signing of the memorandum of understanding.

According to Jinshi citing the latest news from TASS, a senior Iranian official stated that due to threats from the U.S., Iran has officially suspended negotiations with the United States regarding a final solution.

On the 8th, U.S. President Trump said at the NATO summit that he believes the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding "has ended."

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "US-Iran Peace Negotiation Location" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Qatar" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 48% an hour ago to the current 63% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "The location of the next diplomatic talks between the US and Iran" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "No talks before June 30" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 55.3% an hour ago to the current 35.15% (a fluctuation of 20.15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Release of the US-Iran Agreement Text" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "June 17" experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 37% an hour ago to the current 55% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Release of the US-Iran Agreement Text" on the prediction market Polymarket, the winning probability of the sub-market "June 16" for the "Yes" option has experienced a sharp fluctuation, dropping from 42.5% an hour ago to the current 25.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

QCP Group's latest market commentary points out that the United States and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding (MOU) over the weekend. The market expects the Strait of Hormuz to resume navigation, and the marginal easing of geopolitical risks has driven overall strength in risk assets. S&P 500 futures opened more than 100 points higher and broke historical highs, while oil prices fell below $75 per barrel, reflecting a decrease in market pricing for the risk of energy supply disruptions.

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.

According to a Reuters report, sources say that the U.S.-Iran framework agreement includes a plan to establish a $300 billion private fund to stimulate investment in Iran. The $300 billion Iranian investment fund can only begin operations after the final agreement is signed. The fund is a private investment vehicle that does not involve government funds and is unrelated to negotiations regarding Iran's sovereign assets frozen overseas. The fund plan has already secured funding commitments from more than half of companies in the U.S., Gulf Arab countries, Asia, South America, and Africa.

According to Cointelegraph, analysts say that the recovery of Bitcoin depends on the success of the US-Iran peace agreement. On-chain data shows that despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin still appears weak. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, stated that although Bitcoin briefly recovered to $67,000, "momentum remains weak, with declining trading volume and stagnant on-chain indicators suggesting a lack of confidence in the rebound, which may quickly fade." If the US-Iran ceasefire agreement breaks down, Bitcoin will face a "volatile path," potentially gaining buying interest as a hedge asset, only to be pushed towards key support levels by broader risk-averse sentiment.Swissblock stated on Monday that Bitcoin's price momentum and OBV indicator remain in a state of "weak momentum and low participation," both being negative values. The price momentum indicator is at -1, and OBV is at 1.7 million, at a multi-year low. Swissblock pointed out that in a typical bear market, momentum weakens first, followed by a contraction in OBV, leading to a downward price breakout. History shows that stronger recovery signals appear when both turn positive, and until then, "the risk of retesting the lows remains."

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $134,678.18 in a single transaction regarding the "Permanent Peace Agreement between the U.S. and Iran" event on "June 30." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 97.79%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $215,585.11 in a single transaction regarding the "U.S.-Iran Permanent Peace Agreement" event on "June 15." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 79.93%.