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Short-term yields on U.S. Treasuries have risen, as the market expects the Federal Reserve may need to raise short-term interest rates

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

Shanghai police in China have arrested a gang engaged in cross-border illegal operations of virtual currency through a self-built platform, involving 200 million yuan

The Public Security Bureau of Hongkou District, Shanghai, China, recently solved a case involving cross-border illegal settlement and illegal foreign exchange trading using virtual currency, arresting 9 criminal suspects and involving an amount of over 200 million yuan. The suspects, including a person named Li, established a technology company at the beginning of 2024 to seek illegal profits, building two platforms online: "Cross-Border Fund Exchange" and "Virtual Credit Card Issuance and Settlement." They solicited customers both online and offline, illegally conducting exchange and settlement services for virtual currency and cross-border funds, profiting through transaction fees, service fees, card issuance fees, withdrawal fees, and other means.Investigators stated, "The uniqueness of this case lies in the fact that the criminals developed two apps and publicly solicited customers on such a large scale, which has never been seen before. The platforms built in this case are themselves a closed-loop illegal financial service system, with all transactions settled internally on the platform. This mode of crime has a higher degree of scale, a longer chain, and is more deceptive." Reports indicate that on the "Cross-Border Fund Exchange" platform, the criminal gang collected customers' virtual currency overseas and exchanged it for foreign currency, forming a "fund pool," and then realized cross-border settlement through fabricated contracts, achieving the exchange and transfer of virtual currency to RMB. On the "Virtual Credit Card Issuance and Settlement" platform, the criminal gang "cooperated" with several overseas private banks to issue virtual credit cards to customers, who could use the card for consumption, but the repayment process had to be settled in virtual currency; the gang exchanged virtual currency for foreign currency overseas, relying on false cross-border settlements to complete clearing with overseas card merchants.

first_img SemiAnalysis: HBF non-HBM alternative, cost and heat dissipation still have uncertainties

P Equity Research and SemiAnalysis researcher Nick Doyle and others discussed high bandwidth flash (HBF) in X Space. Nick stated that it is still too early to determine how much the cost premium of HBF relative to HBM can shrink; existing data mostly comes from vendor claims, such as Sandisk stating that the cost per bit is about one-eighth that of HBM. Yields, testing, and other factors will improve with scale, but structural costs such as TSV, stacking, and pSLC mode will always exist, and durability is a key unknown; if wear exceeds expectations, costs will rise.The application scenarios for HBF are narrow, targeting only AI inference, especially low batch and long context MoE models, and it is not a substitute for HBM. The actual bandwidth target is about 1.6 TB/s, which is at the HBM3E level, suitable for sequential reads to load model weights, more aligned with the capacity needs of a small number of GPUs in local or private enterprises, rather than ultra-large-scale bandwidth scenarios. Heat dissipation reliability has not yet been resolved; flash memory will degrade faster at high temperatures next to GPUs, and mitigation measures such as UCIe separation and daily refresh have yet to be validated.In terms of manufacturing, Sandisk/Kioxia has experience with 3D NAND, and SK Hynix complements HBM-style stacking capabilities, but mass production is still to be confirmed. Overall, storage is shifting towards a specialized layered market, with NAND shortages expected to continue until 2028, and HBF may further impact supply and demand.
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