conflict

Famous hedge fund manager Bill Ackman posted on social media:"Some of the world's highest quality companies are currently trading at extremely low prices. Ignore the mainstream media's voice. This is one of the most lopsided wars in history, and the outcome will be beneficial for the United States and the world. Moreover, we are likely to usher in a substantial peace dividend. This is one of the best times to buy quality assets in a long time. Ignore those bears."

According to Jinshi reports, the dollar has strengthened again due to market concerns about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Although warnings from Japanese officials about intervening in the yen caused the yen to strengthen temporarily, the decline of the dollar was limited and short-lived.Chris Turner from ING stated, "Unless Iran releases clear signals of de-escalation, it will be difficult to see the dollar give back its gains this month in the short term."

According to market news, due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has fallen from about $71,000 last week to around $67,000, dipping to $65,000 on Saturday. BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Bitcoin briefly reached $72,000 earlier this week due to hopes for a breakthrough in Middle Eastern diplomacy, but as those hopes faded and concerns over oil supply resurfaced, the price retraced its gains.She pointed out that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened inflation concerns, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which puts pressure on crypto prices. BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei indicated that oil and gas prices will remain high in the short term and drag down economic growth, suggesting that there is still room for crypto prices to decline, with Bitcoin potentially falling to a support level of $60,000.Bitrue Research Director Andri Fauzan Adziima believes that the market will continue to be volatile and driven by news; if the US-Iran conflict escalates, Bitcoin may test $60,000; if the situation eases and oil prices drop, it could rebound above $70,000.BTC Markets analyst Lucas also noted that current retail investor sentiment is fearful, with many adopting a wait-and-see or hedging stance, while institutional investors are showing the opposite trend. This month, over $1.13 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending four consecutive months of net outflows; Strategy continues to increase holdings, and Morgan Stanley is set to launch a low-fee Bitcoin ETF.She stated that when there is a clear divergence between retail panic and institutional accumulation, historical experience shows that institutional judgment is often more accurate.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," stated on social media that the continuous expansion of national debt and the increase in money supply will drive inflation upward, putting continuous depreciation pressure on dollar savings. At the same time, he believes that geopolitical conflicts may persist for a long time and provide upward support for oil prices, further exacerbating the inflationary environment.Robert Kiyosaki pointed out that in the current global context of debt, currency, and inflation, personal financial awareness and asset allocation are particularly crucial, and he holds a relatively optimistic attitude towards assets such as gold, silver, oil, food, as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to Jin Shi's report, Lloyd Chan from Mitsubishi UFJ Bank stated in a research report that the Middle East conflict may become prolonged, and risk-averse sentiment along with high energy prices will drive up inflation in the United States, leading to sustained high U.S. interest rates, which will support the dollar.Chan pointed out that Asian currencies such as the Indian rupee, Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht face significant risks, as these countries rely on imported energy and are sensitive to high oil prices. Data shows that the dollar rose 0.5% against the Philippine peso to 60.763, having previously reached an intraday all-time high of 60.776.

JPMorgan stated that in the recent context of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin has exhibited characteristics similar to safe-haven assets, showing greater resilience compared to gold and silver. Data shows that gold prices have fallen by about 15%, while gold ETFs have seen nearly $11 billion in outflows, and the inflows previously accumulated in silver ETFs have essentially been completely reversed. In contrast, Bitcoin has experienced net inflows during the same period, indicating relative strength.Analysis points out that gold and silver were previously at high levels, and with rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar, the market has seen profit-taking and position reductions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has attracted inflows during this phase, demonstrating a different funding behavior compared to traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, on-chain data shows that cryptocurrency activity in the Iran region has significantly increased during the conflict, with users transferring funds to self-custody wallets and overseas platforms. JPMorgan believes that Bitcoin's characteristics of strong cross-border liquidity, support for self-custody, and 24/7 trading make it an important tool for capital transfer in environments of economic instability and capital controls.

The Singapore Exchange today welcomed its first ETF tracking local gold reserves—the LionGlobal Physical Gold ETF officially listed, with the underlying gold purity not less than 99.5%. Previously, this fund was opened to retail and institutional investors on the over-the-counter platform about four months ago.Singapore's move echoes the strategy of its competitor Hong Kong: Hong Kong has signed a gold clearing agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange and plans to build a vault with a capacity of over 2,000 tons within three years. However, as both regions expand their gold investments, gold prices are under pressure and falling, with U.S. gold futures dropping from over $5,400 per ounce on March 2 to as low as $4,100.Analysts point out that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflation expectations, and prompting central banks to delay easing monetary policy. Market logic has shifted from risk aversion to inflation, interest rates, and liquidity, putting continued pressure on gold.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at Barclays Bank pointed out in a report that although the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices and supported the dollar exchange rate, the risk premium for the dollar has not decreased. The market still demands a higher premium for dollar assets to compensate for the increased uncertainty of U.S. policies. Analysts stated that it is reasonable to expect a certain degree of weakening of the dollar in the short term.

According to foreign media reports, the conflict between Iran and the US and Israel continues unabated, while Trump claims that both sides are engaged in negotiations aimed at ending this conflict. Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities such as Eilat, Dimona, and Tel Aviv, as well as US military bases in the Middle East during the night. Saudi Arabia stated that it intercepted a drone in its eastern region, while Kuwait reported that some power lines stopped operating following the Iranian attacks. Alarms also sounded in Bahrain.According to Iranian media Fars News, the US and Israel launched attacks that damaged a gas pressure regulation facility and an administrative building in the central Iranian city of Isfahan. Additionally, a pipeline supplying gas to the combined cycle power plant in Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran was attacked. The attacks continued after Trump postponed the decision to strike Iran's energy infrastructure.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Daly stated that the economy has at least two potential development paths. Prolonged conflicts may exacerbate the trade-offs in monetary policy.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that if price pressures further intensify due to the Iran conflict, the European Central Bank will need to consider raising interest rates next month.

According to Jinshi reports, the Bank of Japan stated that the financial markets are experiencing unstable trends due to the conflict in the Middle East.

According to CoinDesk, affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell back to $72,300, with a 24-hour decline of about 2%. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP fell nearly 3%, putting overall pressure on risk assets.On the news front, U.S. President Trump sent a stronger signal regarding Iran, labeling it as the "number one supporter of terrorism" and hinting that the situation may escalate further. Meanwhile, incidents such as the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, Israel reportedly killing the Iranian intelligence minister, and the U.S. using heavy bombs to strike missile facilities near the Strait of Hormuz have intensified market tensions, pushing WTI crude oil prices up from about $92 to nearly $96.In terms of macro data, the U.S. PPI for February rose 0.7% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%; core PPI increased by 0.5%, also above expectations. Notably, this inflation data does not yet account for the recent surge in oil prices, further exacerbating market concerns about inflation stickiness and weakening expectations for interest rate cuts.Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market weakened in sync with U.S. stock futures, with the three major stock index futures turning from gains to declines of about 0.4%. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell's statements on growth risks and inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Trump has once again publicly called for interest rate cuts, adding a political variable to this meeting.

The probability of crude oil breaking $100 on Polymarket is currently reported at 63%, an increase of 43 points in the last 24 hours. In addition, the data shows:The probability of crude oil breaking $105/barrel on Polymarket is currently reported at 42%, a decrease of 19 points;The probability of crude oil breaking $110/barrel on Polymarket is currently reported at 27%, an increase of 10 points;The probability of crude oil breaking $120/barrel on Polymarket is currently reported at 16%.

According to market news, a hacker group in China has experienced internal strife due to disputes over the distribution of stolen goods. Members publicly revealed that they had stolen approximately $7 million in cryptocurrency assets through supply chain attacks, targeting platforms such as the cryptocurrency wallet Trust Wallet.According to the leaked information, the group operated under the name of the cybersecurity company Wuhan Anshun Technology, publicly engaging in activities such as vulnerability discovery, network offense and defense, and security services, while internally actually involved in activities related to the theft of cryptocurrency assets and other gray market operations. Team members claimed they obtained mnemonic phrases in bulk and scanned multi-chain assets, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, etc., through supply chain vulnerabilities in the Electron client, plugin reverse engineering, and automation tools.The whistleblower stated that the team had developed automated tools to scan mnemonic phrase assets in bulk and used remote control programs to steal wallet data, subsequently transferring and splitting the funds. The related attacks reportedly involved 37 types of tokens across multiple blockchain networks. The trigger for the exposure of this incident was an internal dispute over the distribution of stolen goods.The whistleblower claimed to have had conflicts with the team leader over unfair profit distribution and publicly presented relevant evidence after the promised severance compensation was not fulfilled, planning to turn themselves in to law enforcement. Currently, the related accusations have not been officially confirmed, and the details of the incident are still under further investigation. Industry insiders pointed out that this incident once again highlights the security risks of cryptocurrency wallet supply chains and plugins, as well as the trend of targeted attacks against high-value users.

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that for the week ending March 9, Polymarket and Kalshi set all-time highs in nominal trading volume, reaching $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively. Dune data indicates that the continued growth in trading activity has driven the total nominal trading volume of all prediction markets to $14.5 billion, with the number of unique users reaching 2.8 million.Meanwhile, U.S. Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the "DEATH BETS Act," which aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to explicitly prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and personal death. Previously, six Polymarket traders faced insider trading allegations after profiting $1 million from accurately betting on a U.S. attack on Iran.