expectation

The unemployment rate in the United States for August is 4.1%, expected 4.1%, previous value 4.10%.The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States for August is 162,000, expected 56,000, previous value revised from -23,000 to 21,000.

According to Nikkei News, the rise in Bitcoin prices lacks momentum, as it was bought due to "dollar depreciation trading," but this is only a fleeting moment. Now, the expectation of interest rate hikes in the United States has become a heavy burden for Bitcoin. The market generally expects Bitcoin prices to peak in the fall.A factor to watch is the U.S. midterm elections in November. In years when midterm elections were held, the market tends to decline from September to the end of the year, with a drop of 45% in 2018 and an 18% decline in 2022.

In August, the ADP employment number in the United States was 38,000, the smallest increase since January, lower than the market expectation of 48,000, and the previous value was 44,000.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated that the hawkish remarks made by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have shifted the market's focus from whether there will be a rate hike in September to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period before inflation clearly falls back to the 2% target, and even retain the option for further tightening of policies.Lewis Huang pointed out that if subsequent CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to be strong, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index may remain strong, putting continued pressure on gold from the dual forces of rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar, which may also amplify the volatility of high-valuation tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.Conversely, if inflation significantly cools and the labor market weakens, the market may lower its rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for gold and growth stocks.He added that besides the Federal Reserve's policy statements, traders should also pay attention to whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by factors such as fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and rising term premiums.Before and after the release of major data, it is recommended to moderately control leverage and assess market direction based on the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and stock indices.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated on the X platform: "As expected, there has been a slight pullback. If it continues to pull back to around $75,500, it will be a great new opportunity, and I remain optimistic about the rise after the slight pullback. Investing and trading are the hardest things. I entered the mining circle in 2015 at a low BTC price and later successfully invested in Quantum and others, catching the crazy bull market of 2017. This was entirely a matter of luck, but at the time, I thought it was skill, as I had previously achieved some success in entrepreneurship and investment in classical industries.Later, I crazily invested in hundreds of projects, most of which failed and a few succeeded. As investment opportunities decreased, I began to work hard on learning trading, which requires even more respect. I succeeded in trading nine times in a row, but the tenth failure brings me back to square one."

U.S. non-farm payroll benchmark change preliminary value for 2026 (not seasonally adjusted) -79,000, expected 183,000, previous value -862,000.

IREN's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 was $137.2 million, which was basically in line with expectations; adjusted EBITDA was $19.2 million, about 53% lower than expected. AI cloud service revenue increased from $33.6 million to $70.5 million quarter-over-quarter, while Bitcoin mining revenue decreased from $111.2 million to $66.7 million.The company currently operates an ARR of approximately $1 billion, with capacity for 2026 nearly sold out, corresponding to a contracted ARR of about $4 billion, and has signed a multi-year contract with a frontier AI lab. Recently, the three-year contract revenue per IT MW exceeded $20 million, with some negotiation prices around $25 million.IREN plans to increase its cumulative IT capacity from approximately 0.3GW in 2026 to about 0.8GW in 2027; existing cash, committed GPU financing, and customer prepayments total approximately $14 billion.

According to Gate market data, Okta's US stock rose 19.3% in pre-market trading due to its second-quarter performance exceeding expectations.

According to Gate market data, Crowdstrike's stock rose 9.6% in pre-market trading due to the company's upward revision of its annual revenue forecast.

Reto Cueni, Chief Economist of St. Gallen Group, stated in a report that the market may slightly raise expectations for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. However, he pointed out that the market still mostly expects that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, and St. Gallen Group itself currently does not believe there will be a rate hike.Cueni stated, "At present, we still maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will not further raise interest rates in the second half of this year." According to LSEG data, the money market currently estimates a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.

According to Gate market data, after-hours trading on Wednesday for U.S. stocks saw Nvidia's new quarterly results continue to exceed market expectations, with a forecast of approximately 70% sales growth for the next fiscal year, driving AI concept stocks higher in after-hours trading.The storage sector collectively strengthened, with SK Hynix rising 4.48%, SanDisk up 3.71%, Micron Technology up 3.67%, Seagate Technology up 3.15%, and Western Digital up 3.11%. The Neocloud sector saw widespread gains, with Nebius up 6.27%, CoreWeave up 4.76%, Applied Digital up 3.26%, and both IREN and Core Scientific up 3.16%.Optical communication stocks rose across the board, with Applied Optoelectronics up 4.25%, Marvell Technology up 4.08%, Credo up 3.78%, Coherent up 3.35%, and Astera Labs up 3.34%. Semiconductor stocks also strengthened, with Arm up 4.18%, Marvell Technology and Nvidia both up 4.08%, Lam Research up 2.65%, and KLA up 2.42%.

NVIDIA's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 increased by more than double year-on-year to $96.22 billion, exceeding market expectations of $92.17 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.22, surpassing the expected $2.10. Data center revenue grew more than double to $89 billion, higher than the expected $85.08 billion. The company expects third-quarter revenue of $108 billion (with a fluctuation of 2%), above analysts' expectations of $104.19 billion; the adjusted gross margin is expected to be 74% (with a fluctuation of 0.5 percentage points), lower than the market expectation of 74.77%.NVIDIA expects revenue to grow by about 70% in fiscal year 2028 and to expand its collaboration with AWS, with both parties planning to deploy an additional 2 million NVIDIA GPUs in Amazon's global infrastructure in 2027 and 2028. The company stated that revenue opportunities for AI chips could exceed $1 trillion before 2027. The third-quarter guidance does not include any sales from data center chips in China.After the earnings report was released, NVIDIA's stock price rose over 4% in after-hours trading. As of Wednesday's close, the market capitalization was approximately $5.16 trillion, with the stock price having increased by 12.4% year-to-date.

NVIDIA's revenue outlook for Q3 of fiscal year 2027 is $108 billion, while the market expectation is $104.196 billion.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh stated that NVIDIA's second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations has become a consensus, with the market focusing on AI spending outlook. Rakesh expects NVIDIA's adjusted earnings per share to be $2.08, with revenue at $92 billion, and the actual figures may be higher. He maintains a "Outperform" rating and a target price of $300.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated: "The mild upside surprise in today's inflation data, along with relatively strong economic performance, is not something that investors or the Federal Reserve would welcome. However, this set of data is not sufficient to shift the decision-making balance for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting."

The U.S. July PCE price index month-on-month was 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1%, and the previous value was -0.1%.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The market expects the overall PCE in July to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%; the core PCE is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year it remains at 3.3%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.It is noteworthy that rising prices in the AI industry chain, high valuations in the stock market pushing up portfolio management fees, and the situation in the Middle East leading to increased energy costs may all become potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that stock market valuation factors alone could contribute approximately 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase in core PCE for July.What draws more market attention is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to comprehensively adjust the PCE statistical methods by the end of September, which may involve adjustments to the price calculations for categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may also retroactively revise historical data, increasing the difficulty of interpreting inflation data.Currently, the market's views on the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are increasingly divided. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also waiting for this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and subsequent interest rate policies.

AI company Anthropic recently disclosed to investors that it expects its future potential revenue opportunities to exceed $300 trillion.