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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 36.3%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 26.1%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 52.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 21.4%.

According to The Block, Benchmark Equity Research reiterated its buy rating on Strategy (MSTR) and maintained its target price of $570. This target price still has about a 406% upside compared to Friday's closing price of $112.53.Although Strategy's perpetual preferred stock STRC experienced a significant sell-off last week, dropping to around $83, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer stated that STRC is not a stablecoin and does not have a Terra/Luna-style reflexive mechanism. Its essence is a perpetual preferred stock, backed by over 847,000 bitcoins (approximately $55 billion) held by Strategy.Palmer believes that the decline of STRC is not a "de-pegging," but rather a reset of the market's required yield. The company currently has about $1.4 billion in cash reserves, which can flexibly support dividend payments. Benchmark views this sell-off as a stress test of its financing model, rather than a structural deterioration.

According to Jinshi News, Baosheng Group expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, while the European Central Bank will raise interest rates once more.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 61.5%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 38.5%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged drops to 24.9%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points rises to 52.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 22.9%.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as a "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range. Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure.Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range. Analysts point out that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has strengthened the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

Chairman of the U.S. House Military and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, Republican Congressman William Timmons, announced that a roundtable meeting will be held on June 25, focusing on how digital assets and cryptocurrencies can help individuals protect their wealth, access assistance, and maintain economic autonomy. In addition, this roundtable will also explore the intersection of digital finance and U.S. national security interests, and examine how the U.S. can promote financial innovation and maintain competitiveness in the digital finance sector.

Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the DXY from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it will typically trigger trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index; a stronger dollar usually suppresses risk assets priced in dollars. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic supporting the dollar and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to Jinshi News, short-term interest rate futures currently indicate that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September is greater than the likelihood of maintaining rates.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, approaching a key short-term support level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on June 18, which is the main catalyst for volatility this week. This FOMC meeting is also the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, so the post-meeting press conference and interest rate results are equally under scrutiny.Trader Killa stated that the FOMC may set the tone for market trends for the remainder of June. He pointed out that BTC is currently forming a bullish narrative around this event, but the outcome is usually priced in by the market before the press conference. Killa noted that if recent history is any guide, FOMC days typically bring more bearish reactions than bullish ones. Killa warned that BTC needs to maintain a bullish market structure from its current position of around $64,000; otherwise, after this turning point, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low.Another trader, Niels, mentioned that the FOMC meeting coincides with the nearing conclusion of the US-Iran peace agreement, and BTC may show some strength in the short term, but it could ultimately fall towards $55,000. However, analyst Cryptic Trades offered a more optimistic view, believing that BTC may continue to rebound after the FOMC. He stated that BTC has encountered resistance near a daily bullish support zone formed by two key moving averages, but after this round of correction, the next significant rise is imminent.

A bipartisan group of senators led by Cynthia Lummis has written to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, requesting that the Treasury maintain states' regulatory authority over certain stablecoin issuers when formulating implementation rules for the GENIUS stablecoin bill. The GENIUS Act was signed into law last year, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States, requiring that stablecoins be fully backed by U.S. dollars or similar high-liquidity assets, and mandating that issuers with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion undergo annual audits, while also setting rules for offshore issuance.The bill allows stablecoin issuers with a market capitalization of no more than $10 billion to be regulated at the state level, as long as the relevant state regulatory systems are "substantially similar" to federal requirements. The senators believe that the rules previously proposed by the Treasury do not clearly outline the timeline and standards for state regulatory system applications, reviews, and certifications, creating uncertainty for the states. The letter points out that there are significant differences in legislative cycles across states, with some states even adopting a biennial legislative cycle, thus requiring a flexible and continuously open certification mechanism to ensure that states can apply for certification when demand arises, rather than being constrained by timing mismatches that limit innovation and competition.

According to The Block, Benchmark maintains a "Buy" rating on the tokenized infrastructure company Securitize, with a target price of $16, based on its revenue expectation of approximately $178 million in 2027. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced that the merger registration statement of Securitize and Cantor Equity Partners II is effective, and shareholders will vote on June 29. If approved, the merged company is expected to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SECZ.The report states that Securitize has a differentiated advantage with its compliance license system across the U.S. and Europe, including registration as a broker-dealer, alternative trading system, transfer agent, and fund service provider in the U.S., and holds trading and settlement licenses under the DLT Pilot regulatory framework in the European Union. Securitize currently manages approximately $3.4 billion in tokenized assets, and the size of its market segment has exceeded $30 billion.

Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza reiterated a buy rating on Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), with a target price of $400.

According to BBX data, last week the expansion of institutional crypto infrastructure and the differentiation of cash flow management models for mining companies were implemented simultaneously. The core dynamics are as follows:Morgan Stanley (NYSE: $MS) Wealth Management Department and Galaxy Digital Inc. (NASDAQ: $GLXY) officially announced a recommended cooperation agreement on June 5: allowing Morgan Stanley's qualified high-net-worth clients to lend directly held BTC, ETH, or SOL to Galaxy Digital. After Galaxy, as an Authorized Participant (AP), completes the creation of physical shares, the corresponding spot crypto ETP shares (including Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, NYSE Arca: $MSBT) will be directly transferred to the client's brokerage account; the converted ETP shares can be used as collateral for account financing. Key parameters: Galaxy Digital has reduced the minimum trading threshold for Morgan Stanley's recommended clients from $25 million to $5 million, significantly expanding the coverage of qualified high-net-worth clients; traditional similar institutional trades usually take more than four weeks to complete, while the new mechanism can shorten the entire process by up to 75%. The legal basis for this cooperation is the SEC's approval of the physical conversion ETF mechanism for crypto assets in July 2025, allowing direct physical conversion between directly held crypto assets and spot crypto ETFs, with Morgan Stanley's $MSBT being one of the first beneficiary products.Bitdeer Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: $BTDR) reported that as of the week of June 5, 2026, Bitcoin mining output was 205.3 BTC, with the same amount sold, resulting in a net holding of 0 BTC, maintaining a current BTC position of zero, continuing the "output equals sale" cash flow management strategy; the proceeds from sales are used to support the R&D of its SEALMINER mining hardware product line and the expansion of hash power hosting services. Bitdeer's zero holding model sharply contrasts with mining companies like CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ: $CLSK) (holding approximately 13,561 BTC) and MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MARA) (holding approximately 35,303 BTC), which continue to accumulate Bitcoin, representing another financially rational path for mining companies during the BTC price downturn cycle—exchanging immediate liquidity for stable operational cash flow, avoiding the impact of single asset price fluctuations on the balance sheet.

The Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer, listed on NASDAQ, released the latest Bitcoin holdings data on the X platform. As of the week ending June 5, its Bitcoin mining output was 205.3 BTC, but it sold 205.3 BTC during the same period, resulting in a net increase of 0 BTC, and currently maintains a zero Bitcoin holding.

According to Jinshi, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.6%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 8.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.2%.

According to The Block, Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that "the bottom has almost appeared" for Bitcoin after a recent sharp decline, with the current range of about $63,000 being a "buying range." He pointed out that since February, the overall holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have remained stable, with no concentrated redemptions that would raise concerns, indicating that funds are more "structurally stable."Kendrick expects that after the recent selling pressure triggered by Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, there may be a buyback at a scale of 10 times or even 100 times, following historical practices, which could signal the confirmation of a temporary low. He also cautioned that there is still a downside risk of Bitcoin falling below $60,000, but believes that buying in batches is preferable to trying to time the bottom precisely. The bank maintains its year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that the current monetary policy is neutral or even somewhat accommodative, and it is necessary to maintain a mildly tightening policy stance.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that the current policy is in good shape and may be maintained for a period of time.