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JPMorgan Chase: The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both houses is 66%, while the Republican Party maintaining control of both houses is most beneficial for the U.S. stock market

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

After the release of Google's financial report, its market value evaporated by nearly 500 billion dollars, and analysts expect the stock price to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term

According to CNBC, after the release of Alphabet's third-quarter financial report, the stock price fell more than 12% to $285, with a market value shrinking by nearly $500 billion. Despite Google Cloud's revenue growing 103% year-over-year, the market is still focused on earnings per share falling short of expectations and the negative free cash flow amid ongoing investments in AI infrastructure.Mike Khouw stated in a CNBC column that the fundamentals of Alphabet's core business remain intact, but a short-term rapid rebound faces two obstacles. First, multiple institutions have downgraded ratings, target prices, or future earnings forecasts. He pointed out that historically, stocks that have experienced concentrated downgrades tend to underperform the market or trade sideways in the following 30 days, and institutional rebalancing can also limit upward momentum. Second, the gap down after the earnings report further damaged the technical pattern.In terms of technical indicators, Alphabet's RSI has dropped to just over 20, and the MACD sell signal has strengthened. However, Khouw believes that with the stock price close to the 52-week low of $270.70, combined with an extremely oversold condition, further declines may be limited.In terms of trading strategy, Khouw suggested using a sell wide strangle options strategy to cope with the anticipated range-bound fluctuations. He believes that continued selling in the overall market poses the main downside risk, while unexpected positive news driving the stock price up rapidly could threaten the bullish call option selling side of the strategy.

QCP: Global central banks maintain interest rates, technology spending and the Binance incident drive repricing

Digital asset trading company QCP pointed out in its latest market report that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan all kept interest rates unchanged this week, but the market is still betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan may raise rates in December. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% with a vote of 10 to 2 during the October meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh did not commit to any rate adjustments for December and beyond.In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that there will be no rate votes at one meeting in 2027 and two meetings in 2028, which will only be used to discuss monetary policy strategy. QCP believes that the reduction in decision-making nodes may allow for the accumulation of more economic data between the two meetings, making the market more sensitive to data changes and increasing interest rate volatility and term premiums. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, citing that previous inflation data had not yet produced second-round effects, but the market still expects a possible rate hike in December. The Bank of Japan also kept interest rates unchanged and stated that inflation has reached the 2% target, with the market pricing in the possibility of a rate hike in December.In terms of technology stocks, shares of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Intel fell after announcing quarterly results, as the market is concerned about current corporate earnings performance and future capital expenditure plans, particularly focusing on the pace and profitability of AI infrastructure investment. In the cryptocurrency market, Binance experienced a significant security incident on Friday morning, affecting approximately $6.3 billion in assets, which initially led to a decline in trading activity in the cryptocurrency market. QCP pointed out that the market gradually stabilized afterward, with participants seemingly viewing this incident as a company-level risk rather than a systemic event affecting the entire cryptocurrency market or infrastructure, with central bank policy uncertainty, concerns over technology companies' capital allocation, and the Binance security incident collectively driving the market to reprice.
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