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CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, correcting the previous analysis of CME Bitcoin futures positions, stating that "Total Reportables (large institutional traders)" was mistakenly labeled as "Leveraged Funds," leading to the belief that CME hedge funds rarely turned into net long positions in BTC futures. However, the actual situation is that leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures.Ki Young Ju provided CFTC futures position data as of August 4: 1. Large institutional traders overall show a slight net long position, which includes asset management institutions, market makers, dealers, etc. Ki Young Ju stated that although the net long extent is limited, the previous judgment about institutional direction being bullish still holds. 2. Leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures, but over the past year, their standard BTC futures net short position has decreased by about 50% (measured in BTC), mainly due to the decline in basis trading returns. When the futures basis returns fell below U.S. Treasury yields, the arbitrage space narrowed. Leveraged funds currently show a net long position in Micro BTC futures, but the scale is small, only about +394 BTC, which is approximately 1% of the standard BTC futures net short position. Ki Young Ju indicated that leveraged funds overall have not yet turned into net long positions, but their long-term structural shorts are clearly weakening, which may reflect the closing of arbitrage trades and adjustments in directional positions.

Bank of America reiterated its "Buy" rating on SpaceX after the earnings report, maintaining a target price of $235, which is approximately 87.5% higher than the reference price of $125.33 after the earnings report. Bank of America believes that its bullish logic is no longer primarily based on the rocket launch business, but rather on the AI infrastructure business.Bank of America expects SpaceX's AI business revenue to approach $24.5 billion by 2026, accounting for more than half of the company's total revenue forecast. Meanwhile, the collaboration with Anthropic has been contributing revenue since May of this year, and the computing power collaboration with Google is expected to start in October this year. As a result, Bank of America has raised its performance forecasts for the next few years: the revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised by about 15% to $46.9 billion; the revenue forecast for 2027 has been raised by about 29% to $100.7 billion; the revenue forecast for 2028 has been raised by about 29% to $184.8 billion.However, Bank of America also expects that as capital expenditures continue to expand, SpaceX will still maintain large negative free cash flow in the coming years. It estimates: free cash flow of -$43.6 billion in 2026; -$45.4 billion in 2027; and -$37.4 billion in 2028.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating and maintained a target price of $140 after Circle announced its Q2 2026 financial results, believing that the company's latest performance constitutes a "reverse validation" of the market's bearish views. Bernstein analysts stated that the market currently underestimates USDC's long-term growth potential and Circle's advantages in distribution channels, liquidity, and regulatory compliance, due to two major core concerns regarding Circle—intensifying competition in stablecoins and changes in the interest rate environment that may affect reserve income.Investors may not have fully accounted for the future revenue opportunities from transaction fees, partner ecosystems, and the Arc blockchain that Circle could generate. The firm specifically pointed out that several infrastructure initiatives recently advanced by Circle, including obtaining a national trust bank license in the U.S., expanding the Circle Payments Network, and the planned launch of the Arc public chain mainnet on September 16, could all become future growth drivers. Additionally, Bernstein noted that Circle has raised its guidance for other revenues and profit margins after deducting distribution costs for 2026, expecting to confirm approximately $180 million in Arc token presale revenue.Analysts believe that future staking yields, gas fees, and ecosystem partnership revenues from Arc have not been fully reflected in current valuation expectations. As of the end of Q2, the circulating supply of USDC was $73.3 billion, a decrease of 5% from the previous quarter but an increase of 19% year-over-year. Bernstein believes that Circle is shifting from a purely crypto trading infrastructure to payments, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and broader financial infrastructure, which will drive USDC into the next phase of growth. Circle's stock closed at $63.28 on Wednesday, and Bernstein's target price of $140 implies a potential upside of about 121%.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in the negative premium range for 80 consecutive days (from May 19 to present), with the latest value at -0.0978%. Previously, this index was in the negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, setting the longest consecutive negative record since the launch of this indicator, surpassing the approximately 30 days of consecutive negative premium during the 1011 crash.Historical data shows that prolonged negative premiums are often accompanied by the exit of institutional funds from the United States, and short-term pullback pressure should be monitored.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. service industry maintained a stable expansion in July, with the ISM Services Index rising by 0.1 points to 54.1, indicating that the industry is in an expansion state. The growth rate of new orders accelerated, and the business activity index rose to a five-month high, showing resilience in consumer demand.However, service and material costs continue to rise, with the ISM Input Cost Price Index climbing to 70.3, putting pressure on corporate profits, and some companies may delay hiring.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. Treasury will maintain its repurchase plan, keeping the same pace as the previous quarter.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Novaque Research, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 on July 29 to maintain the interest rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, maintaining the interest rate is different from cutting rates and did not bring new liquidity stimulus, and Bitcoin's internal demand indicators reflect this constraint.Novaque stated that the Coinbase premium index continues to be deeply negative, close to -0.11, indicating that Bitcoin's pricing on Coinbase is weaker than on offshore platforms, pointing to sluggish spot demand in the U.S.; total open interest remains below the 100-day moving average, and CME options exposure has significantly contracted from the peak in the first quarter; exchange reserves have rebounded from the April low to about 2.72 million BTC, indicating an increase in supply that can be sold at any time. It believes that against the backdrop of weak demand in the U.S., simply pausing interest rate hikes can only prevent further tightening and cannot create a favorable environment for price increases, and Bitcoin prices will remain under pressure in the short term.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released the August Bitcoin market outlook, stating that BTC is currently down about 50% from the cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025, with prices approaching the on-chain average holding cost. It is expected that August will likely maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests that the most probable scenario for August (with a probability of about 55%) is that BTC will trade in the range of $57,700 to $67,000, potentially closing at $60,000 to $64,000 by the end of the month.The bearish scenario (30% probability) involves a drop below $57,700, further testing the on-chain realized price of about $52,800; the bullish scenario (15% probability) requires a stable position above $67,000, along with continuous inflows of ETF funds, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar, targeting $71,000 to $74,000. The current valuation is close to the on-chain cost area, and the spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, providing support for the market; however, the high interest rate environment, sustained high U.S. Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar still limit the upside potential for risk assets. The report also reminds to pay attention to the impact of macro events such as U.S. non-farm employment, CPI, and the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on market liquidity.

According to DeFiLlama's latest "Tokenized Stock Research Report," tokenized stocks are becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors, with active market capitalization increasing from $814 million at the beginning of the year to $1.976 billion, a growth of over 140%. The report conducted a horizontal evaluation of the stock product architecture, market trading data, and liquidity performance of mainstream platforms such as Binance, Bitget, Kraken, Bybit, Hyperliquid, and Ondo Finance.Data shows that in the liquidity benchmark test for the five stock spot markets of MSTR, SPY, QQQ, CRCL, and NVDA, the median bid-ask spread of Bitget's stock token rToken is only 0.83 basis points, and it has the deepest market liquidity among all sample markets. In the execution benchmark test covering 36 stock perpetual contracts and 8 types of metal and commodity perpetual contracts, Bitget maintains a significant lead in depth on about 90% of trading pairs.DeFiLlama points out that as the tokenized stock market continues to mature, liquidity and trade execution quality are becoming key differentiating factors in platform competition. With lower trading costs and a deeper order book, Bitget provides a more efficient trading experience for institutional and retail users.

According to Jinshi reports, Stifel has lowered the target price for Tesla (TSLA.O) from $508 to $491, while maintaining a "Buy" rating.

According to Jinshi News, strategists indicate that the U.S. Treasury may use euros instead of dollars to fund its yen purchasing plan, in order to avoid depreciation of its own currency and to prevent its strong dollar policy from being questioned.David Forester, a senior strategist at Crédit Agricole Bank in Singapore, pointed out that the U.S. maintains a strong dollar policy and does not want to be seen as trying to gain a competitive advantage by weakening its own currency.Jason Wang, a currency strategist at the New Zealand Bank in Wellington, stated that this approach may be less transparent, but the ultimate effect is the same.

According to Jinshi, the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2026, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The meeting emphasized the comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and support the effective financing needs of the real economy.By the end of June, the total social financing scale increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the broad money supply increased by 8% year-on-year.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in the negative premium range for 75 consecutive days (from May 19 to present), with the latest value at -0.0973%. Previously, this index was in the negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, setting the record for the longest "continuous negative" period since the indicator was launched, surpassing the approximately 30 days of continuous negative premium during the "1011 crash."Historical data shows that long-term negative premiums are often accompanied by the exit of institutional funds from the United States, and caution is needed regarding short-term pullback pressure.

The Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer announced the latest Bitcoin holdings data on platform X. As of the week ending July 31, its Bitcoin mining output was 271.3 BTC, and it sold 271.3 BTC during the same period, resulting in a net addition of 0 BTC. Currently, it continues to maintain a zero Bitcoin holding.

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that he believes we can maintain the current interest rates.

As market risk aversion increases, international gold prices have shown a mild recovery trend recently. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAU) is currently priced at $4088.05, with a 24-hour increase of 0.68%. The total network position size is $858 million, of which Gate XAU's position amount reaches $174 million, firmly ranking among the top two in the industry; Tether Gold (XAUT) has a total network position size of $571 million, with Gate XAUT's contract position amount reaching $127 million, firmly ranking among the top three in the industry.

According to Jinshi reports, Microsoft plans to maintain a multimodal strategy, allowing customers to use models from OpenAI or Anthropic in a way that better meets their needs.

Recently, the gold and silver markets have continued to show strong performance, with trading activity in the metals sector steadily increasing. According to market data from the Gate platform, gold (XAU) is currently priced at $4087.68, with a 24-hour increase of 1.51%; silver (XAG) is currently priced at $58.52, with a 24-hour increase of 1.77%. According to CoinGlass data, the open interest for Gate XAU contracts has reached $192 million, and the open interest for Gate XAG contracts has reached $72.509 million, both ranking in the top two in the industry.Gate has pioneered the trading sector for perpetual contracts and CFD contracts for metals, covering mainstream trading targets such as gold, silver, and platinum, and supports 24/7 trading with USDT settlement. Relying on Gate's innovative unified account system, users can configure diverse assets such as stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities without the need for cross-platform operations, helping users achieve a more flexible and efficient one-stop global asset strategy layout in volatile markets.

According to Jinshi reports, on July 24, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a symposium for non-party figures at Zhongnanhai to listen to the opinions and suggestions of leaders from various democratic parties, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and representatives of non-partisan individuals. Xi Jinping presided over the meeting and delivered an important speech, emphasizing the need to adhere to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote the continuous development of the economy towards new, better, and good directions, implement an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, enhance development momentum, and ensure and improve people's livelihoods.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Central Command stated that there are currently over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East, maintaining a high level of vigilance and ready for combat at any time.