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Data: Binance and Bybit stablecoin outflows exceed 2.3 billion USD in 30 days, Bitcoin liquidity is depleted, and market sentiment is pessimistic

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the outflow of stablecoins from Binance and Bybit in the past 30 days exceeded $2.3 billion, leading to a depletion of Bitcoin liquidity. Bitcoin has been testing the critical price level of $60,000 for nearly 165 days. Although it briefly broke through $80,000 in May, it failed to maintain or reignite the upward momentum of Bitcoin.One of the reasons for this situation is the lack of new liquidity flowing into the market. Whether through direct investment in Bitcoin or investment in the entire crypto market, new demand has been difficult to realize. Observing the changes in stablecoin reserves at exchanges, the situation has been particularly poor since the beginning of the year, with a nearly continuous decline, reflecting that outflows are significantly exceeding inflows. In just the past 30 days, Binance's stablecoin reserves have decreased by $1.55 billion, while Bybit lost $786 million during the same period. The decline in reserves sends a clear signal: demand and liquidity are shrinking, and investors seem inclined to withdraw stablecoins from exchanges or even exit the market entirely. Therefore, it is this still overly pessimistic overall market sentiment that continues to deprive Bitcoin of the resources needed to break through the current consolidation range.

CITIC Construction Investment: Although the logic of AI computing power remains optimistic, volatility has intensified; it is recommended to be cautious in chasing high prices

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.

Ripple CEO: Still optimistic about Bitcoin, but the strategy of preferred stock financing has harmed the crypto market

According to CoinDesk, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in an interview with CNBC that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin but believes that Strategy's model of financing Bitcoin purchases through preferred stock has harmed the crypto market.Garlinghouse said, "Financial engineering will not drive long-term value." He believes that the long-term value of any digital asset comes from its utility and stated, "Michael Saylor's team is not focused on the right things, which harms the overall market."The focus of Garlinghouse's criticism is the financing mechanism used by Strategy to accumulate Bitcoin. For about the past year, Strategy has raised funds through the issuance of preferred stock to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Its STRC stock has an annual dividend yield of 11.5%, designed to trade close to $100.Garlinghouse pointed out that STRC is currently about 25% below that level, which is a "harsh denial" of the strategy. STRC hit an all-time low on Thursday, at one point trading about 26% below par value. Meanwhile, Strategy's common stock fell to its lowest level since February 2024, closing around $82 on Friday; Bitcoin dropped below $59,000.This week, Strategy's financing model is facing more pressure. CryptoQuant stated that Strategy should pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves. The coverage period for STRC dividend payments has shrunk from over 7 years to about 14 months. When STRC falls below $100, the mechanism of issuing stock and purchasing Bitcoin will stall, which is also the reason for the company to pause this mechanism.Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes that Strategy's financing engine has simply become "less efficient," rather than having failed, and opposes comparing STRC to assets that have completely collapsed.
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